Marubeni sees Japanese aluminium premiums at $140-$250/T in 2022

Maruken Lease

07/12/2021 10:42

TOKYO, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The premiums that Japanese buyers
pay for aluminium are seen in a range of $140 to $250 a tonne
next year thanks to strong demand, tight supply in top producer
China and higher container rates, trading house Marubeni said on
Tuesday.
    Japan is Asia's top aluminium importer and the premiums
 PREM-ALUM-JP  for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each
quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the
benchmark for the region.
    Japanese premiums have risen sharply to $130-$220 a tonne
this year from $79-$88 in 2020 as global demand picked up from a
pandemic-induced slump and container shortages caused shipping
delays and freight hikes.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2R10E8 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL2N2NT082 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2LT0DF
    One global aluminium producer has recently offered Japanese
buyers premiums of $195 per tonne for the January-March quarter
next year, down 11% from the current quarter's $220, to reflect
weaker overseas premiums.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2SL2CE
    Marubeni, a major Japanese aluminium trader, predicted the
premiums would stay between $160-250 a tonne in January-March
and $140-250 for the rest of 2022.
    "Our forecast came in a wider range than usual as there are
downside and upside risks which are hard to predict," Hiroki
Tomita, general manager at Marubeni's light metals section, told
reporters.
    "Strong demand in transport equipment, construction and can 
could lead to a spike in premiums, but tight aluminium
inventories, which tend to cause backwardation, may trigger a
short-term sell-off by investors who don't want to hold
stockpiles," he said.
    Marubeni expects $140 to be the floor for premiums as
disruptions in logistics will continue throughout the year.
    LME aluminium  CMAL3  is currently trading around $2,620 per
tonne, off October's 13-year peak of $3,229 but still at a
historically elevated level.
    Marubeni forecast an average aluminium price of between
$2,750 and $2,925 next year as the market remains tight due to a
supply shortage in China, driven by the government's environment
policy and power shortages.

 (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Jan Harvey)
 ((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))