Emerging Markets: Colombia's peso hits over one-month high, lifting LatAm currencies

MSCI

19/10/2026 21:04

Brazil real steady as runoff polls tighten
Higher Colombia rates may not curb inflation, central banker says
Stocks of regional energy giants fall
Updates with afternoon trading
By Sudeshna Ghoshal, Johann M Cherian and Niket Nishant
Oct 19 (Reuters) - Colombia's peso touched its highest in over a month on Monday after a central banker said interest rates in the country may have to stay higher for longer, providing fresh momentum to one of the best-performing regional currencies of the month.
The peso COP= strengthened 0.54% to 3150.25 per dollar, a level not seen since September 17. 
Last month, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Rate increases by the Fed typically boost the dollar, weakening other currencies by comparison.
Investors also expect at least two more Fed hikes by March 2027, intensifying the hunt for alternatives such as the Colombian peso, which can offer relatively better yields.

        "We believe that recent COP weakness may have run its course, and local factors continue to support the currency," HSBC analysts said in a note. 
"Colombia's government policies seek to reduce the deficit while encouraging investment, particularly in the hydrocarbon sector. Attractive carry conditions could also support the COP despite rising US yields that are eroding appeal for lower-yielding EM FX."
Late on Friday, Laura Moisa, one of seven policymakers on the board of Colombia's central bank, said inflation is being driven mainly by supply-side shocks, and interest rates will have to remain high for longer.
MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS rose 0.45%. Mexico's peso MXN= and Chile's peso CLP= strengthened 0.26% and 0.38%, respectively. 
BRAZIL ELECTION KEEPS INVESTORS ON EDGE
With the Brazil presidential runoff less than a week away, the focus on domestic politics sharpened. 
Two polls showed Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has narrowed, pointing to a close race between the right-wing lawmaker and the leftist incumbent.
Bolsonaro and Lula also traded barbs in their first face-to-face presidential debate on Sunday in a contentious back-and-forth.
The real BRL= rose 0.3% to 5.0469 per dollar, while the equity benchmark .BVSP was flat. The country's local assets had rallied after Bolsonaro's strong showing in the first round earlier this month. 
MSCI's index tracking Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS rose 0.2%. Energy giants, however, fell, with Brazil's Petrobras PETR4.SA and Argentina's YPF YPFDm.BA down 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively.
Strong growth data out of China also boosted risk sentiment. China is a top importer of resources, including metals and agriculture products from LatAm.
Elsewhere in emerging markets, hard-currency bonds in Ukraine XS2895056872=TE, XS2895055981=TE were down roughly two cents on the dollar as tensions with Russia intensified and soured investors' expectations of a ceasefire.
Hungary's budget will target a much lower deficit of 4.9% of gross domestic product in 2027, Prime Minister Peter Magyar said as he unveiled the government's draft plan, seen as a key credibility test for the country's euro-adoption ambitions. The forint EURHUF= was up 0.1%.
The chief executive of Indonesia's stock exchange .JKSE said it planned to exclude stocks with a large proportion of shares held by a small number of investors from several of its indices, in response to MSCI's warning of a potential downgrade to "frontier" status. 
Leaders of the exchange also said they would meet MSCI on Monday for clarification on its statement.
     
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
     
Equities
Latest
Daily % change
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF
1618.96
-0.1
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS
3328.61
0.23
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP
205380.08
-0.02
Mexico IPC .MXX
69145.23
0.31
Chile IPSA .MMXIPSAGC
 10972.1
 0.02
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP
2520.51
-1.78
 
 
 
Currencies
Latest
Daily % change
Brazil real BRL=
5.0469
0.3
Mexico peso MXN=
18.4321
0.26
Chile peso CLP=
980.64
0.38
Colombia peso COP=
3150.25
0.54
Peru sol PEN=
3.4348
0.04
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL
1524
-0.39
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=
1540
0.97


 (Reporting by Sudeshna Ghoshal, Johann M Cherian and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Aurora Ellis and Diti Pujara)
 ((Sudeshna.Ghoshal@thomsonreuters.com; johann.mcherian@thomsonreuters.com))