REG - Renew Infra Grp Ld - Net Asset Value update – Q3 2025

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RNS Number : 0081G  Renewables Infrastructure Grp (The)  04 November 2025

 

 

4 November 2025

The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited

"TRIG" or "the Company", a London-listed renewables investment company advised
by InfraRed Capital Partners ("InfraRed") as Investment Manager and Renewable
Energy Systems ("RES") as Operations Manager.

Net Asset Value update - Q3 2025

TRIG announces an estimated unaudited Net Asset Value as at 30 September 2025
of 109.7 pence per share, an increase of 1.5 pence per share in the quarter.
The uplift was principally due to increases in revenue forecasts of 1.2p and
value enhancement activities 0.6p.

The Board reaffirms the dividend target for 2025 of 7.55p per share for FY
2025(1). Low generation as a result of particularly poor wind speeds in H1
continued into July and can be expected to impact H2 cash flows meaning that
net coverage of the FY 2025 dividend may be tight. Gross cash cover for FY
2025, calculated based on operational cash flows before the £190m repayment
of amortising project debt, is expected to be c. 2x.

Q3 2025 movements in Net Asset Value per share

The key drivers of the movement in NAV per share over the quarter are
summarised in the table below:

                                                    Net Asset Value  Movement

                                                    (p / share)      (p / share)
 NAV per share at 30 June 2025                      108.2
 Q3 performance                                                      -
 Changes to revenue forecasts                                        1.2
 Operational updates                                                 (0.3)
 Value enhancements and share buybacks                               0.6
 NAV per share at 30 September 2025 (unaudited)(2)  109.7

Q3 performance

Overall, performance in the quarter had a net nil impact on the NAV, with the
positive impact of inflation and foreign exchange gains being offset by below
budget wind in July.

Generation was 7% below budget for the quarter, principally driven by economic
and grid curtailment in Sweden being greater than budgeted. As power price
assumptions in TRIG's valuation for Sweden are significantly below that
assumed for other regions, the curtailment of the Swedish portfolio had
limited financial impact.

Generation across TRIG's UK wind portfolio (offshore and onshore) was 4% below
budget, which includes the adverse impact of availability downtime at Crystal
Rig 1, which is being prepared for repowering, and grid downtime for the Mid
Hill project. Future grid downtime for the Mid Hill project has been provided
for as noted in the Operational updates section below.

Generation across TRIG's solar portfolio was 8% ahead of budget demonstrating
the benefit of diversification across geographies and technologies.

Power price levels achieved in the quarter were consistent with budgets across
the portfolio.

Actual inflation continues to be slightly above TRIG's assumptions for 2025,
resulting in a small increase in NAV. Inflation levels assumed for the
calendar year 2025, including actuals for the year-to-date, are UK RPI: 4.5%;
UK CPI: 3.2%; and Eurozone: 2.1%.

Sterling continued to weaken against the Euro in the quarter, increasing the
value of Euro denominated investments. FX hedge losses reduced the favourable
impact from this movement.

Changes to revenue forecasts

TRIG uses the average of three leading power price forecasters' projections.
These are adjusted for the lower price that a variable renewables project
captures compared to a baseload generator and the resulting discount is known
as cannibalisation(3). This means that TRIG captures the breadth of views on
the evolution of the electricity market and supply demand dynamics. This is
important as forecasters' views may diverge.

The lowest of the three forecasters increased its forecast in its Q3 update,
which reduces the impact of the adverse adjustment it made in the first half
of 2025. The other two forecasters slightly lowered their projections, with
the net impact being an increase in the blended, cannibalised curve. These
revisions mean that the spread of power price forecasts used in the portfolio
valuation has reduced, demonstrating some convergence of forecasters'
long-term outlook.

Potential change to the UK Renewable Obligation Certificate and Feed in Tariff
regimes

On 31 October 2025, the UK's Department of Net Zero and Energy Security
published a consultation in respect of Renewable Obligation Certificates
("ROCs") and Feed in Tariffs ("FITs"). Two proposals are presented that might
change the status quo: 1) whether to bring forward the date on which the
inflation index for these arrangements moves from RPI to CPI from 2030 to
2026, and 2) whether to hold the level of ROC and FIT payments at today's
level until such time as historical CPI aligns with RPI and then to index to
CPI from that point forward.

The estimated benefit to the average household bill for 2026-27 is £4 under
proposal 1 and £13 under proposal 2 before factoring in any consequential
costs, such as an increase in the cost of capital(4).

The Board and Managers will respond to the consultation and engage with the
Government on these proposals, noting in particular that changes of this
nature undermine private sector investment confidence at a time when it is
required both to further the UK's net zero ambitions and fuel economic
growth.

TRIG has relatively limited exposure to UK ROC and FIT revenues (16% and 1% of
projected revenues for 2025, respectively) given the nature of its diversified
portfolio.  The Managers estimate that the impact of such a change, were it
to be applied to TRIG's NAV per share, would be c. -0.6p under proposal 1 and
c. -2.4p under proposal 2.

Operational updates

Three adjustments, each individually non-material, have been made to
operational assumptions.

The Mid Hill project has been informed of further grid outages for 2026 by its
distribution network operator at unusually short notice. The project's joint
venture partner and TRIG's Operations Manager have sought to reduce expected
downtime.

The post-construction energy yield study for the Cadiz solar projects has
resulted in a small reduction to the project's future energy yield budget.

Insurance recoveries in relation to the offshore transmission cable outages in
2024 and 2025, affecting Hornsea One, East Anglia One and Beatrice, have been
marginally increased to reflect latest expectations. Total remaining insurance
recoveries assumed for these three projects in the portfolio valuation is less
than £10m (TRIG's share based on equity percentage ownership). The latest of
these outages relating to Beatrice is also now fixed and the project is
performing well.

Value enhancement

TRIG's management team continues to progress value enhancement activities
having added £29m to the portfolio valuation year-to-date, which marks strong
progress towards the target of £70m in total over 2025 and 2026 as set out at
the Capital Markets Seminar in May. Value enhancement activities during the
quarter that have been incorporated into the portfolio valuation as at 30
September 2025 include:

·      Revenue management: In line with the strategy to reduce power
price exposure, the management team has continued to place power price fixes.
These agreements present an attractive opportunity to support businesses in
accessing renewable electricity at a fixed price, while delivering secure,
long-term revenue streams for TRIG shareholders. The most notable of these was
the entry into a 10-year corporate Power Purchase Agreement ("CPPA") with
Telefonica UK / Virgin Media O2 ("VMO2") as announced 15 October 2025.

·      Development and construction: The 264MW Valdesolar solar project
in Spain, in which TRIG owns a 49% equity interest, is progressing the
development of a co-located 200MW two-hour battery.

Other value enhancement initiatives have progressed positively in the quarter
and will be incorporated into the portfolio valuation once more progressed:

·      Development and construction: Construction of the 78MW two-hour
Ryton battery storage project in the UK remains consistent with budget ahead
of energisation towards the end of the year.

·      Development and construction: Decommissioning of TRIG's first
repowering project has begun. The repowering of the Cuxac onshore wind farm in
France will increase the site capacity to 25MW, and the project will benefit
from a new 20-year inflation-linked tariff.

·      Development and construction: Construction of the 100MW two-hour
Spennymoor battery storage project in the UK was approved and groundworks are
underway. Over 200MW of TRIG's 1GW 2030 development pipeline is now in
construction.

Share buybacks

As at 31 October 2025, £76m of the current £150m share buyback programme had
been deployed in the repurchase of TRIG shares.

During the quarter to 30 September 2025, 14.7m shares were repurchased for an
aggregate consideration of £12m. Share buybacks added 0.2p per share to NAV
in the quarter.

(1) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. There can
be no assurance that targets will be met or that the Company will make any
distributions, or that investors will receive any return on their capital.
Capital and income at risk.

(2) NAV per share at 30 September 2025 presented after unwind of the discount
rate, company costs and payment of the quarterly interim dividend.

(3) Cannibalisation describes the effect that renewables (a variable
generator) can have on the overall power prices, whereby the marginal cost of
generation, which in turn drives the power prices, is lower than the average
which would be expected of a hypothetical continuous base load generator as a
result of the additional supply when renewables are generating. Rates differ
over time and between markets but all are affected.

4 Extracted from "Changes to inflation indexation in the Renewables Obligation
and Feed-in Tariff schemes Analytical annex: Impact of indexation options"
published by Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, The Scottish
Government and Northern Ireland Executive dated 31 October 2025:

·      Changing RO indexation from RPI to CPI is forecast to produce
savings for the consumer of £80m (24/25 prices) in 26/27.

·      Changing FiTs indexation from RPI to CPI is forecast to produce
savings for the consumer of £20m (24/25 prices) in 26/27.

·      Freezing the RO indexation is forecast to produce savings for
consumers of £300m (24/25 prices) in 26/27.

·      Freezing the FiTs indexation is forecast to produce savings for
consumers of £60m (24/25 prices) in 26/27.

Assumption that there are 28.6 million households (Source: Families and
households in the UK: 2024, published by ONS dated 23 July 2025).

Enquiries

InfraRed Capital Partners
Limited                              +44 (0) 20
7484 1800

Minesh Shah

Phil George

Mohammed Zaheer

 

Brunswick
+44 (0) 20 7404 5959 / TRIG@brunswickgroup.com

Diana Vaughton

Charles Malissard

 

Investec Bank
Plc
+44 (0) 20 7597 4000

Lucy Lewis

Tom Skinner

 

BNP
Paribas
+44 (0) 20 7595 9444

Virginia Khoo

Carwyn Evans

Notes

The Company

The Renewables Infrastructure Group ("TRIG" or the "Company") is a leading
London-listed renewable energy infrastructure investment company. The Company
seeks to provide shareholders with an attractive long-term, income-based
return with a positive correlation to inflation by focusing on strong cash
generation across a diversified portfolio of predominantly operating projects.

 

TRIG is invested in a portfolio of wind, solar and battery storage projects
across six markets in Europe with a net operational capacity of 2.3GW; enough
renewable power for 1.8 million homes and to avoid 2.0 million tonnes of
carbon emissions per annum.

 

Further details can be found on TRIG's website at www.trig-ltd.com
(http://www.trig-ltd.com) .

 

Investment Manager

 

InfraRed is a leading international mid-market infrastructure asset manager.
Over the past 25 years, InfraRed has established itself as a highly successful
developer, particularly in early-stage projects, and an active steward of
essential infrastructure.

InfraRed manages US$13bn of equity capital(1) for investors around the globe
in listed and private funds across both core and value-add strategies.

InfraRed combines a global reach, operating worldwide from offices in London,
Frankfurt, Madrid, New York, Sydney and Seoul, with deep sector expertise from
a team of more than 160 people.

InfraRed is part of SLC Management, the institutional alternatives and
traditional asset management business of Sun Life, and benefits from its scale
and global platform.

For more information, please visit www.ircp.com. (https://www.ircp.com.)

(1) Uses five-year average FX as at 31 December 2024 of GBP/USD of 1.2818;
EUR/USD 1.1092. EUM is USD 13.186bn.

Operations Manager

TRIG's Operations Manager is RES ("Renewable Energy Systems"). RES is the
world's largest independent renewable energy company, working across 24
countries and active in wind, solar, energy storage,  green hydrogen,
transmission, and distribution. An industry innovator for over 40 years, RES
has delivered more than 28GW of renewable energy projects across the globe and
plans to bring more than 26GW of new capacity online in the next five years.

As a service provider, RES has the skills and experience in asset management,
operations and maintenance (O&M), and spare parts - supporting 45GW of
renewable assets. RES brings to the market a range of purposeful, practical
technology-based products and digital solutions designed to maximise
investment and deployment of renewable energy. RES is the power behind a clean
energy future where everyone has access to affordable zero carbon energy
bringing together global experience, passion, and the innovation of its 4,500
people to transform the way energy is generated, stored and supplied.

Further details can be found on the website at www.res-group.com
(http://www.res-group.com/) .

 

 

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