REG-Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd SWEF: Quarterly Portfolio Update
21/10/2022 07:15
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Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd (SWEF)
SWEF: Quarterly Portfolio Update
21-Oct-2022 / 07:01 GMT/BST
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Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited
Quarterly Portfolio Update
Annualised dividend yield of 6.0 per cent;
Portfolio 80 per cent contracted at floating interest rates
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited (“SEREF” or “the Group”), a
leading investor originating, executing and managing a diverse portfolio
of high quality senior and mezzanine real estate debt in the UK and
Europe, is pleased to announce a strong performance for the quarter ended
30 September 2022.
Highlights
• Strong cash generation - the portfolio continues to support annual
dividend payments of 5.5 pence per Ordinary Share, paid quarterly, and
generates an annual dividend yield of 6.0 per cent on the share price
as at 30 September 2022
• Regular and Consistent Dividend - £196 million of dividends paid since
inception
• Inflation protection – 80 per cent of the portfolio is contracted at
floating interest rates (with floors) which will provide an increase
in revenue as expected higher inflation results in higher interest
rates
• Robust portfolio - the loan book is performing in line with
expectations with its defensive qualities reflected in the Group’s
continued stable NAV; the weighted average Loan to Value for the
portfolio reduced this quarter to 59.9 per cent from 60.5 per cent
last quarter
• 53 per cent share price total return since inception in December 2012
• Compelling pipeline of opportunities - The Investment Adviser and
Manager continue to see an active investment pipeline across a range
of geographical regions and sectors which represent attractive risk
adjusted returns
John Whittle, Chairman of SEREF, said:
“In these turbulent times we are reassured by the highly defensive nature
of the Group’s portfolio, the quality and resilience of which has again
been proven in another testing macro environment. As evidence of this,
once again all interest payments have been received in full, with the
ongoing strong cash generation supporting our annual dividend target
distribution of 5.5 pence per share, a yield of 6.0 per cent on the share
price as at 30 September 2022.
Importantly, we remain satisfied with our average portfolio LTV which has
further fallen during this quarter to 59.9 per cent, representing a very
significant cushion to the Group’s loans.
We are also pleased with the substantial new loan that was originated in
the period comprising a £46.2 million investment in an industrial campus
at Loughborough, increasing our portfolio weighting to the light
industrial sector to 6.9 per cent.
Looking ahead, we continue to evaluate an interesting and diverse pipeline
of potential opportunities across various regions and sectors and we
anticipate attractive new opportunities to arise from the current
volatility. In the meantime, given the high weighting of the portfolio to
floating interest rates (80 per cent), portfolio income will continue to
benefit from the inflationary environment.”
The factsheet for the period is available at:
1 www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com
Share Price / NAV at 30 September 2022
Share price (p) 91.6
NAV (p) 103.58
Discount 11.6%
Dividend yield (on share price) 6.0%
Market cap £366m
Key Portfolio Statistics at 30 September 2022
Number of investments 20
Percentage of currently invested portfolio in floating rate 79.7%
loans
Invested Loan Portfolio unlevered annualised total return (1) 7.4%
Portfolio levered annualised total return (2) 7.7%
Weighted average portfolio LTV – to Group first £ (3) 13.7%
Weighted average portfolio LTV – to Group last £ (3) 59.9%
Average loan term (based on current contractual maturity) 5.0 years
Average remaining loan term 1.9 years
Net Asset Value £414.2m
Amount drawn under Revolving Credit Facilities (including £42.0m
accrued interest)
Loans advanced (including accrued interest) £453.4m
Cash £4.0m
Other net liabilities (including hedges) £1.2m
Remaining years to contractual or negotiated Value of loans % of invested
maturity* (£m) portfolio
0 to 1 years £139.4 31.1%
1 to 2 years £82.4 18.4%
2 to 3 years £115.6 25.7%
3 to 5 years £111.4 24.8%
*excludes any permitted extensions. Note that borrowers may elect to
repay loans before contractual maturity. Negotiated maturity is agreed
subject to certain conditions being met by the borrower.
Country % of invested assets
UK 60.2%
Republic of Ireland 18.8%
Spain 15.6%
Netherlands 4.3%
Germany 1.1%
Sector % of invested assets
Hospitality 37.4%
Office 23.7%
Retail 10.9%
Residential 10.2%
Light Industrial 6.9%
Healthcare 5.6%
Life Sciences 4.3%
Logistics 0.6%
Other 0.4%
Loan type % of invested assets
Whole loans 69.3%
Mezzanine 30.7%
Currency % of invested assets*
Sterling 60.2%
Euro 39.8%
*the currency split refers to the underlying loan currency, however the
capital on all non-sterling exposure is hedged back to sterling.
(1) The unlevered annualised total return is calculated on amounts
outstanding at the reporting date, excluding undrawn commitments, and
assuming all drawn loans are outstanding for the full contractual term.
17 of the loans are floating rate (partially or in whole and all with
floors) and returns are based on an assumed profile for future interbank
rates but the actual rate received may be higher or lower. Calculated
only on amounts funded at the reporting date and excluding committed
amounts (but including commitment fees) and excluding cash uninvested.
The calculation also excludes the origination fee payable to the
Investment Manager.
(2) The levered annualised total return is calculated as per the unlevered
return but takes into account the amount of net leverage in the Group and
the cost of that leverage at current SONIA/Euribor.
(3) LTV to Group last £ means the percentage which the total loan drawn
less any deductible lender controlled cash reserves and less any
amortisation received to date (when aggregated with any other indebtedness
ranking alongside and/or senior to it) bears to the market value
determined by the last formal lender valuation received by the reporting
date. LTV to first Group £ means the starting point of the loan to value
range of the loans drawn (when aggregated with any other indebtedness
ranking senior to it). For development projects the calculation includes
the total facility available and is calculated against the assumed market
value on completion of the relevant project.
Dividend
On 21 October 2022, the Directors declared a dividend in respect of the
third quarter of 2022 of 1.375 pence per Ordinary Share, equating to an
annualised income of 5.5 pence per annum. The Board is targeting a
dividend of 5.5 pence per annum (payable quarterly) which it considers to
be sustainable and covered by earnings during the course of 2022 with any
excess cash generated being used to replenish a modest dividend reserve.
The Invested Loan Portfolio unlevered annualised total return has been
increasing steadily as interest rates curves have moved upwards. The
year-on-year increase is 70 basis points (i.e. now 7.4 per cent, up from
6.7 per cent in September 2021). As the interest rate environment
increases there is additional support for the dividend cover.
Portfolio Update
Despite the various wider macroeconomic headwinds, we are very pleased
with the performance of the portfolio. Average LTV of the portfolio is
59.9 per cent. Our valuations are based on independent third party RICS
red book appraisals with a weighted average age of 1.2 years for the total
portfolio. While these numbers are backward looking, there remains a very
signification cushion to the Group’s loan basis. Risk around interest rate
increases is managed by a combination of underlying borrowers having
interest rate hedging contracts or various other structural features
including cash reserves in place. All interest and scheduled amortisation
have been paid in line with contractual obligations to date.
We were pleased to announce the origination of one new loan in the quarter
with £46.2 million of total loan commitment on an industrial campus in the
UK. This investment has increased our exposure to industrial assets to 6.9
per cent and has had the impact of reducing our largest sector exposure,
hospitality, to 37.4 per cent, down from 39.9 per cent last quarter.
Despite a slowdown in transactions across the market, we have continued to
see the Group’s borrowers execute specific strategic sales. A total of
£16.2 million repaid in the quarter from a combination of underlying
property sub-portfolio sales. Post quarter end in October 2022, the Group
received a further partial loan repayment of €7.2 million on the Dublin
Office Portfolio loan. This was the result of the borrower executing a
sale of a large office building in Dublin for over €90 million. The sale
price was ahead of the Group’s most recent independent valuation report
for this portfolio from March 2022. This assists in providing confidence
that valuations have held up in the last quarter, particularly for high
quality assets where borrowers have executed asset management plans
including the re-gearing of occupational leases and select refurbishment
projects.
As the existing portfolio becomes more seasoned, risk around ground up
construction or heavy refurbishment projects reduces significantly as
these projects build out and near completion. The Group’s exposure to
ground up construction is 13.4 per cent of the current portfolio across
two projects. Both of these buildings are forecast to substantially
complete within the next six months. These projects have benefitted from
having fixed price design and build contracts and strong sponsors who are
delivering very high quality, desirable buildings. The largest exposure,
Hotel & Residential UK (£49.9 million loan) has pre-sold the majority of
its residential units, with the total contracted sales value exceeding the
total loan commitment. This provides material de-risking of the lenders
position and we expect this loan to fully repay during 2023.
We continue to closely monitor any actual or potential impact of market
headwinds such as energy, food, labour and construction cost inflation
through review of underlying asset performance and discussions with
sponsors and asset managers. The Group’s key sector exposures of
hospitality (37 per cent of total invested portfolio), office (24 per
cent) and retail (11 per cent) all continue to perform in line with
expectations. Hotels have performed very strongly throughout the summer,
with average daily rates exceeding the Group’s underwritten expectations,
underpinning the demand for these hotels, driven by robust demand for
business and leisure travel. Occupancy across the office portfolio
continues to be robust. Occupancy of the Spanish Shopping Centres, which
comprise over 90 per cent of the Group’s retail exposure, continues to be
robust and remains ahead of the pre-pandemic level occupancy.
New Loan
In September 2022 the Group funded the initial advance of a £46.2 million
floating rate whole loan secured by an industrial estate in Loughborough,
UK. The financing has been provided in the form of an initial advance to
assist the acquisition of the asset along with a capex facility to support
the borrower's value-enhancing capex initiatives.
The asset is a multi-let industrial estate currently consisting of 802k sq
ft over 11 buildings across 53 acres with a strong income base. It is
located in Loughborough within the Golden Triangle for logistics providing
strong transport links within the UK.
Partial repayments
During the quarter, despite lower transaction volumes across the markets
because of the cautionary approach being adopted by investors, borrowers
in the portfolio successfully executed a number of disposals ahead of
business plan that resulted in the following partial repayments of loan
obligations:
• €7.5 million, Hotel, Dublin
• €5.3 million, Mixed Portfolio, Europe
• €5.0 million, Office and Industrial Portfolio, The Netherlands
• €0.7 million, Logistics Portfolio, Germany
In addition, since quarter end, the following partial repayments have been
received:
• €7.2 million, Office Portfolio, Dublin
• €3.4 million, Mixed Portfolio, Europe
Market commentary and outlook
• While the most recent UK and US rates of annual inflation are down on
previous months the overall levels remain high.
• Central banks continue to fight inflation by raising short-term
interest rates and long-term interest rate expectations have continued
to rise to fresh post global financial crisis highs during the
quarter.
• Public markets remain volatile. Many stock markets are currently in
bear markets. Credit markets are reflecting the new interest rate
environment, with the biggest effect seen in medium to long-term fixed
rate credit markets.
• The UK mini budget was badly received by markets who are questioning
the credibility of the fiscal plan. The market reaction has caused
some reversal of policy and some resignations but markets remain
jittery.
• Hotel market data continues to illustrate positive revenue growth for
operating real estate.
• Choppy markets will create opportunities for lending to borrowers with
solid real estate and business plans.
We are now almost 8 months into the war in Ukraine which continues to have
a destabilising effect on energy and commodity supply which are the
largest drivers of rising inflation.
Inflation and interest rates continue to dominate markets with central
banks resolute in their aim of tackling inflation through higher interest
rates. Central banks have continued to raise rates during the quarter
with the Fed raising rates by 150 basis points in the quarter to a 3-3.25
per cent range and the Bank of England by 100 basis points to 2.25 per
cent. The market anticipates a steep pace of further increases with UK
rates expected to peak at almost 6 per cent. These rates are creating
recessionary pressures but particularly in the UK we are also seeing long
term rates continuing to rise as the markets require a higher return given
concerns around fiscal prudence.
In the UK, the September inflation figure of 10.1 per cent was up from 9.9
per cent in August, while in the US the September inflation number of 8.2
per cent was slightly lower than previous month levels but both remain at
very elevated levels. Inflation numbers continue to be driven by increased
energy costs. Energy prices in August were estimated to be up 38.6 per
cent compared to a year earlier for the Eurozone, up 52.0 per cent for the
UK and up 23.8 per cent for the US. However, even after stripping out
energy and food, core inflation was 4.3 per cent for the Eurozone, 6.3 per
cent for the UK and 6.3 per cent for the US. Commodity prices are
expected to remain volatile while the war in Ukraine causes disruption to
energy, agricultural and other exports from Ukraine due to blockades of
the ports and from Russia due to sanctions.
Interest rates have moved very quickly over the past quarter and this can
be seen in the SONIA, Euribor and swap rates, to which most of the Group’s
investments are linked. As at 30 September 2022, 3 month (forward-looking)
SONIA and Euribor currently stands at 3.24 per cent and 1.17 per cent
respectively versus 1.55 per cent and negative 0.20 per cent just 3 months
ago at 30 June 2022. The 5 year sterling swap and 5 year Euro swap have
also moved significantly and currently stand at 5.04 per cent and 2.92 per
cent respectively versus 2.48 per cent and 1.74 per cent last quarter,
reflecting increases of 2.56 per cent and 1.18 per cent in the quarter.
These movements have provided a significant yield benefit to lenders with
exposure to floating rate loans and have resulted in a significant sell
off in fixed rate debt.
In the public credit capital markets, primary issuance has picked up
somewhat but continues to be slow across asset classes and secondary
pricing has increased as investors digest the implications of the rising
rate environment and the knock-on effects. Fixed rate credit markets,
where lenders do not have the benefit of rising rates in the credit
instrument they own, have continued to sell off reflecting higher interest
rates.
In the European high yield market there were a number of new issues in
September but overall year to date issuance is still down 62 per cent
versus the 2017 to 2019 average. The iTraxx Crossover index is a good
example of the volatility in the market. The index which had already more
than doubled to reach 580 basis points at the end of the second quarter
traded in a very wide 200 basis points range in September and peaked at
695 basis points in late September before closing the quarter at 638 basis
points.
There remains limited primary markets activity for real estate corporate
unsecured bonds with only three new issuances in the real estate space and
no CMBS issuance in Europe during the quarter. This is contributing to
the reduced capacity of investment banks to underwrite and distribute real
estate risk and we think it is likely to continue until the end of the
year.
In our last factsheet we gave some examples of how rate inflation in
operational real estate could be seen to be boosting revenues in hotel
market data. We are continuing to see that trend compounded with a strong
dollar helping drive UK and European hotel performance.
The vast majority of gateway markets in Europe reported higher average
daily rates (“ADRs”) in August 2022 compared with August 2019. Paris
continues to be the leader in both total and luxury markets versus 2019,
achieving a premium of 46 per cent and 52 per cent to 2019 rates
respectively. Milan achieved ADRs 20 per cent and London 16 per cent
higher overall. Prague was the only city with a lower ADR – down 1 per
cent versus 2019.
August 2022 occupancy levels almost reached 2019 levels, with Milan and
Warsaw exceeding those levels by 9 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
17 out of the 25 markets achieved over 70 per cent in August. Leisure
destinations have been performing well, such as Glasgow (88 per cent),
Edinburgh (87 per cent), Dublin (87 per cent) and Spanish Resorts (86 per
cent).
London Heathrow saw traffic in August at 79 per cent of 2019 levels – down
3 per cent vs. July as staff shortages have had a negative impact on the
total number of passengers processed. The number of travellers from
Northern American reached 97 per cent of its 2019 level, a strong increase
over summer up from 78 per cent in May. Middle Eastern travel has also
recovered strongly to 92 per cent of 2019 levels.
The UK mini budget announcement in late September was received very badly
by the market. The market had not been prepared for the size of the tax
policy changes and did not like the lack of information with no forecasts
to back up how the books would be balanced.
Interest rates shot up both at the short end as the plans are expected to
drive further inflation and have also risen at the long end showing
investors’ doubts over UK finances in the current government’s hands with
investors and third parties like the International Monetary Fund
particularly critical of the lack of financial forecasting.
Since the initial reaction the government has been forced by markets to
abandon many of the proposed tax cuts and both the Chancellor and the
Prime Minister have now resigned.
While the initial volatility has somewhat passed, this story is not over,
neither the markets nor the Conservative party have yet reached final
conclusions and long dated gilt markets are still fragile despite
resignations, U-turns and Bank of England intervention.
The mini-budget also brought a focus to the pound’s foreign exchange
rate. The pound did drop significantly over the Friday and Monday of the
mini budget to an all-time low of 1.035. However, it has rallied since
and while the pound does look weak against the dollar the currency story
is actually more one of dollar strength as both the Euro and Japanese Yen
are down more than the pound this year.
We anticipate a slow and cautious resumption in market activity which will
depend on assessing how inflation and interest rates expectations will
stabilise. Disrupted markets provide opportunity for the Group allowing it
to focus on deal selection and generating strong returns with good
downside protections.
No Credit Losses Recognised
All loans within the portfolio are classified and measured at amortised
cost less impairment. The Group closely monitors the loans in the
portfolio for deterioration in credit risk. There are some loans for
which credit risk has increased since initial recognition. However, we
have considered a number of scenarios and do not currently expect to
realise a loss in the event of a default. Therefore no expected credit
losses have been recognised.
This assessment has been made based on information in our possession at
the date of reporting, our assessment of the risks of each loan and
certain estimates and judgements around future performance of the assets.
Investment Portfolio at 30 September 2022
As at 30 September 2022, the Group had 20 investments and commitments of
£499.8 million as follows:
Sterling Sterling Sterling Total
equivalent equivalent (Drawn and
balance (1) unfunded Unfunded)
commitment (1)
Hospitals, UK £25.0 m £25.0 m
Hotel & Residential, UK £49.9 m £49.9 m
Office, London £18.8 m £1.8 m £20.6 m
Hotel, Oxford £23.0 m £23.0 m
Hotel, Scotland £42.6 m £42.6 m
Hotel, North Berwick £15.0 m £15.0 m
Life Science, UK £19.5 m £7.1 m £26.6 m
Hotel and Office, Northern £12.5 m £12.5 m
Ireland
Hotels, United Kingdom £31.4 m £19.3 m £50.7 m
Office and Industrial Portfolio, £5.5 m £5.5 m
UK (2)
Industrial Estate, UK £27.2 m £19.0 m £46.2 m
Total Sterling Loans £270.4 m £47.2 m £317.6 m
Three Shopping Centres, Spain £30.3 m £30.3 m
Shopping Centre , Spain £14.9 m £14.9 m
Hotel, Dublin £46.2 m £46.2 m
Office, Madrid, Spain £16.3 m £0.9 m £17.2 m
Mixed Portfolio, Europe £11.7 m £11.7 m
Mixed Use, Dublin £10.1 m £2.8 m £12.9 m
Office Portfolio, Spain £8.4 m £0.1 m £8.5 m
Office Portfolio, Ireland £27.8 m £27.8 m
Logistics Portfolio, Germany £2.7 m £2.7 m
Office and Industrial Portfolio, £10.0 m £10.0 m
The Netherlands (2)
Total Euro Loans £178.4 m £3.8 m £182.2 m
Total Portfolio £448.8 m £51.0 m £499.8 m
1. Euro balances translated to sterling at period end exchange rate.
2. Office and Industrial Portfolio, UK and Office and Industrial
Portfolio, The Netherlands are one single loan agreement with sterling
and Euro tranches.
Loan to Value
All assets securing the loans undergo third party valuations before each
investment closes and periodically thereafter at a time considered
appropriate by the lenders. The current weighted average age of the dates
of these third party valuations for the whole portfolio is just 1.2 years
while the current weighted average age of the valuations for the
income-producing portfolio (i.e. excluding loans for development or heavy
refurbishment) is just over 10 months.
On the basis of the methodology and valuation processes previously
disclosed (see 30 June 2020 factsheet) and including new valuations
received, at 30 September 2022 the Group has an average last £ LTV of 59.9
per cent (30 June 2022: 60.5 per cent).
The table below shows the sensitivity of the loan to value calculation for
movements in the underlying property valuation and demonstrates that the
Group has considerable headroom within the currently reported last LTVs.
Change in Valuation Hospitality Retail Residential Other Total
-25% 78.2% 93.4% 77.7% 78.3% 79.9%
-20% 73.3% 87.6% 72.9% 73.4% 74.9%
-15% 69.0% 82.5% 68.6% 69.1% 70.5%
-10% 65.2% 77.9% 64.8% 65.2% 66.6%
-5% 61.8% 73.8% 61.4% 61.8% 63.1%
0% 58.7% 70.1% 58.3% 58.7% 59.9%
5% 55.9% 66.7% 55.5% 55.9% 57.0%
10% 53.3% 63.7% 53.0% 53.4% 54.5%
15% 51.0% 60.9% 50.7% 51.1% 52.1%
Share Price performance and Share buyback programme
The Company's shares closed on 30 September 2022 at 91.6 pence, resulting
in a share price total return since the start of 2022 of 1.8 per cent. As
at 30 September 2022, the discount to NAV stood at 11.6 per cent, with an
average discount to NAV of 9.7 per cent over the quarter. The Board, the
Investment Manager and Adviser continue to believe that the shares
represent attractive value at this level.
Note: the 30 September 2022 discount to NAV is based off the current 30
September 2022 NAV as reported in this factsheet. All average discounts
to NAV are calculated as the latest cum-dividend NAV available in the
market on a given day, adjusted for any dividend payments from the
ex-dividend date onwards.
The Company received authority at the most recent AGM to purchase up to
14.99 per cent of the Ordinary Shares in issue on 10 June 2022. On 19
July 2022 the Board announced that it had engaged Jefferies International
Limited as buy-back agent to effect share buy backs on behalf of the
Company. In order to assist in managing the discount, the Board has
shareholder approval to hold in treasury any shares repurchased by the
Company, rather than cancelling them. The purpose of this active discount
management programme is to reduce discount volatility, subject to the
availability of cashflow. During the quarter to 30 September 2022, the
Company bought back 9.0 million shares for a total consideration of £8.5
million. In addition, the Board has been consulting with investors in
recent weeks in recognition of the ongoing discount control assessment
period.
For further information, please contact:
Apex Fund and Corporate Services (Guernsey) Limited
as Company Secretary
Duke Le Prevost
+44 (0)20 3530 3630
Starwood Capital
Duncan MacPherson +44 (0) 20 7016 3655
Jefferies International Limited
Stuart Klein
Neil Winward
+44 (0) 20 7029 8000
Gaudi Le Roux
Buchanan +44 (0) 20 7466 5000
Helen Tarbet +44 (0) 7788 528 143
Henry Wilson
Hannah Ratcliff
Notes:
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited is an investment company
listed on the premium segment of the main market of the London Stock
Exchange with an investment objective to provide Shareholders with regular
dividends and an attractive total return while limiting downside risk,
through the origination, execution, acquisition and servicing of a
diversified portfolio of real estate debt investments in the UK and the
wider European Union's internal market.
2 www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com.
The Company is the largest London-listed vehicle to provide investors with
pure play exposure to real estate lending.
The Group's assets are managed by Starwood European Finance Partners
Limited, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Starwood Capital
Group.
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ISIN: GG00B79WC100
Category Code: PFU
TIDM: SWEF
LEI Code: 5493004YMVUQ9Z7JGZ50
OAM Categories: 3.1. Additional regulated information required to be
disclosed under the laws of a Member State
Sequence No.: 195693
EQS News ID: 1468279
End of Announcement EQS News Service
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