Poll: Taiwan Q4 economic growth seen picking up on domestic demand, export rebound

Wowprime

29/01/2024 05:52

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      For poll data click: reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TWGDPP%3DECI
    

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      Preliminary Q4 GDP seen at +4.35% y/y (prior qtr +2.32%)
    

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      Data due Wednesday, Jan. 31, after 4 p.m. (0800 GMT)
    

  
       TAIPEI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Taiwan's trade-dependent
economy likely grew faster in the fourth quarter than the third
thanks to strong domestic consumption and a rebound in exports,
a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
    Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have expanded
4.35% in the October-December period versus a year earlier, the
poll of 22 economists showed. GDP grew 2.32% year-on-year in the
third quarter.
    The economists' forecasts for preliminary GDP data due on
Wednesday varied widely from an expansion of just 1.5% to as
much as 6.5%.
    Taiwan's exports emerged from a year-long decline in
September.
    Fourth-quarter exports rose 3.4% versus the same period in
2022, compared with the third quarter's annual contraction of
5.1%, while the island's trade surplus leapt an on-year 131% in
the final three months of the year.
    Domestic consumption has also bounced back well following
the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, restaurant chain Wowprime
 2727.TW  said it aims to hire some 400 new employees in the
first quarter given booming demand.
    "Fourth-quarter growth was mainly because of good private
consumption, and the trade surplus wasn't bad either," said
Kevin Wang, an analyst at Taishin Securities Investment
Advisory.
    Economists at DBS wrote last week they expected a strong
recovery this year and that GDP would expand 3.5%, positioning
Taiwan among the outperformers in Asia.
    The government's statistics bureau said in November it
expected full-year 2023 growth of 1.42%, its slowest pace in 14
years and lower than the 2.45% growth for 2022.
    The economy in China, Taiwan's largest export market, grew
an on-year 5.2% in the fourth quarter, quickening from 4.9% in
the third quarter but missing a 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll.
    Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain
for giants such as Apple  AAPL.O  and Nvidia  NVDA.O , as well
as home to the world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co  2330.TW   TSM.N .
    Taiwan's preliminary GDP reading will be released in a
statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be
released a few weeks later, with more details and
forward-looking forecasts.

 (Poll compiled by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak; Reporting
by Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Jeanny
Kao; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
 ((ben.blanchard@thomsonreuters.com;))