Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 14th August 2025) - CLX, STB, CAPD, FRAS, BPM, CABP, TRU, PBEE, RNK

Good morning!

Wrapping it up there, thank you.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (last updated to: 24th July).

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Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) (£20.8bn)	Half Year Results	EBITDA +60%, PBT +63% ($1,162m). 2025 guidance unch. (660-700k tonnes of copper).
Aviva (LON:AV.) (£20.2bn)	2025 Interim Results	Op profit +22% (£1,068m). ROE 16.7% or 20.6%. Confident in meeting 2026 targets.
Admiral (LON:ADM) (£10.3bn)	Half-year report	Turnover flat but PBT +69% (£521m) (excluding US insurance). ROE rises to 57%.
Centrica (LON:CNA) (£7.80bn)	Investment in Grain LNG	Acquires LNG terminal in partnership. CNA’s 50% share of equity is c. £200m.
Diploma (LON:DPLM) (£7.30bn)	Chief Financial Officer update	“...Chris Davies, Chief Financial Officer, has resigned from his role and will step down from the Board with immediate effect. This decision follows a recent company event where, through a lapse in judgement, his personal behaviour did not meet the high standards required of the Group's leadership team.”
Frasers (LON:FRAS) (£3.1bn)	Open letter to the Chairman of boohoo group plc	Frasers calls for the suspension of Mahmum Kamani and an investigation into allegations of impropriety made in the Telegraph last week.“…[I]t is your responsibility… to protect boohoo and its shareholders from Mr Kamani…”	AMBER (Graham) [no section below] Controversy is hotting up here as Frasers heaps pressure on boohoo (AKA Debenhams) to suspend the Executive Vice Chair and founder Mahmud Kamani. Frasers is the largest shareholder with a 29% stake, more than double Mr. Kamani’s individual stake, and boohoo will need to respond to this. I have had major concerns about corporate governance at boohoo for years and readers can assume I’m permanently RED on it, unless something radically changes. A Frasers takeover might be the radical change that fixes it - Mark suggested recently that Frasers might look to accelerate its acquisition strategy, and boohoo is a possible target. Personally I’m AMBER on Frasers as they have a few corporate governance issues of their own, given that Mike Ashley’s young son-in-law runs it as CEO and Mike Ashley himself, owning 73% of the shares, supposedly has “no decision-making powers”.
Vistry (LON:VTY) (£2.1bn)	Vestry to deliver 2,300 homes in Rugeley	139-hectare site of former power station. Outline planning permission for 2,300 homes.
Savills (LON:SVS) (£1.41bn)	Half-year Report	Rev +6%, adj. PBT +10% (£23.3m). Exps unchanged but depend on pace of pipeline.
Rank (LON:RNK) (£683m)	Final Results	Revenue +11%, adj. LfL operating profit +38% (£64m)... Well placed to meet current expectations.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] As expected, this has roared back into profitability with £54m of PBT in FY June 2025 (previous year: £15.5m). On an underlying like-for-like basis, as calculated by the company, operating profits are up 38% to £63.7m. Whichever way you look at it, it was a very successful year as the revenue-cost equation finally righted itself after several very difficult years. Rank’s share price has made big gains but is still at what I’d consider a pretty reasonable valuation (the P/E multiple is 15.5x according to Stockopedia). However, it is a High Flyer where Value is its weakest metric, and so my previous bullishness should perhaps be scaled back - AMBER/GREEN is fair. The outlook is fine with net gaming revenue up 9% in the first six weeks of the year. Remember that as a predominantly land-based business there are significant fixed costs at play here, and risks that online businesses do not face. There are also opportunities in the form of the new casino reforms that will enable more betting machines, so I think shareholders should have plenty more to look forward to, but I’ll moderate my position from outright positivity at this stage.
Empiric Student Property (LON:ESP) (£622m)	Recommended acquisition of Empiric by Unite	0.085 New Unite Shares and 32 pence in cash, implied value currently 94.2p. 10% premium.	PINK
ITM Power (LON:ITM) (£418m)	Preliminary Results	Adj. LBITDA £33m (guidance: £32-36m). Cash £207m. FY26: rev £35-40m, adj. LBITDA £27-29m.
Pensionbee (LON:PBEE) (£396m)	Interim Results	Rev +23%. AUA +21%. Pre-tax loss £5.1m. Objective to reach 20% adj. EBITDA margin by 2029.	AMBER (Graham) [no section below] I was RED on this automated provider of personal pensions the last time I looked at it a few years ago, but the market says I am wrong as the share price has made great strides since then. However, my scepticism around the company reaching profitability was perhaps reasonable as trailing 12-month EBITDA is still marginally negative (although the company notes marginally positive UK EBITDA). The actual pre-tax loss in H1 was £5m. There is good underlying growth with assets under administration up by 21% year-on-year, and the cash position is fine at £34m thanks to a £20m equity raise last year. With the company having raised that amount of fresh equity, I don’t think I can maintain my bearish stance, as it should be well-funded for the foreseeable future and if it reaches sufficient scale then it has scope to be highly profitable. It still has a lot to prove but I think a neutral outlook is fair now. In addition to their UK activities, they are now expanding in the US, in partnership with State Street.
MHA (LON:MHA) (£367m)	Full Year Results	Revenue +45% to £224.2m, adj. EBITDA +32% to £41.1m, Adj. PBT +31% to £36.3m, Net cash £17.7m, bolstered by £98m gross IPO proceeds post period end. Strong start to FY26 with trading on track to meet market expectations for the full year.
B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM) (£255m)	New Investment- supporting the growth of XPT Group	Complementary investment in support of its US-based investee company, XPT Group, through the formation of Gambit Risk Finance, a newly formed reinsurance vehicle for selected XPT underwriting programmes. B.P. Marsh has committed a maximum of $5m to Gambit Re, of which $1.875m will be funded on completion. In return, B.P. Marsh will receive a preferred equity shareholding of c. 8%, which carries an 8% preferred annual return.	GREEN (Graham) [no section below] There have been some movements on the BPM shareholder register so I’d like to address these first. First, a major shareholder exited their position in full and BPM itself picked up some of these shares (at 650p) using its existing buyback authority. This event caused Brian Marsh’s percentage holding to cross over the 39% threshold. Wellington Management did actively increase their stake in BPM (from 4.9% to 9.2%). I hope that helps to clear up the recent “holding” RNS announcements! Turning to today’s investment news, it’s good to see that BPM continues to use its surplus capital productively - it has never suffered much from cash drag historically, and it looks to continue that positive record even after becoming flush with cash recently (they had £74m as of January, subsequently making £20m of new investments and planning £8m of dividends and buybacks). This is a high-class share which I’m happy to stay GREEN on for as long as its valuation remains reasonable. Fully diluted net asset value per share was 847p as of January (latest share price: 709p).
Enquest (LON:ENQ) (£236m)	Completion of Heather Topsides Heavy Lift	Confirms the completion of a major decommissioning milestone, with the safe removal of the Heather Alpha topsides on 11 August.
Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB) (£210m)	Interim Results	Loan book +6.1% to £3.8bn, adj. PBT +36% to £23.3m, TBV/share +4% to £19.37. Interim dividend 11.8p. “Despite anticipated tightening of fiscal policy and political and economic global uncertainty, the Group remains confident in its ability to deliver against its ROAE target in the near-term, continue to grow income and deliver on cost efficiencies.”	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) Tentatively upgrading this now that the Supreme Court decision has been finalised. This share has performed fabulously - congratulations to holder - and is still cheap in many respects. It's not my top pick in the sector by any means but I do think that the positives probably outweigh the negatives at this stage.
Capital (LON:CAPD) (£185m)	H1 2025 Results	Revenue -6% to $159.2m, EBITDA -25% to $32.1, EPS -81% to 1.1c, dividend held at 1.3c. Net debt $55.4m (24H1: $86.4m). "Through H1 2025 the Group has seen improved momentum across all business divisions and looking forward we see a clear pathway that will continue to build on this - both in revenue growth and a recovery in margins, returns and cash flows.”	AMBER (Mark) Things are undoubtedly looking better here and there is significant scope for continued improvement. However, the shares don't look particularly cheap unless one makes assumptions several years ahead, especially for a sector that is never richly rated by the market. The size of the gross debt and the depreciation policy on mining equipment leave questions as to how much of this recovery will hit the bottom line. I still believe that this is a better quality business than the market gives it credit for. However, the near-term valuation metrics mean I am in no rush to change the rating (or buy back in).
Cab Payments Holdings (LON:CABP) (£127m)	Interim Results	Total income +3% compared to 24H2, to £51.8m. Adj. EBITDA +8% compared to 24H2, to £13.1m. Adj. PBT +9% compared to 24H2, to £5.4m. Reported PAT down 43% to £2.3m due to strategic restructuring costs. Confidence in business momentum going into H2 2025, expecting further HoH growth.	AMBER (Mark) This company looks incredibly cheap on earnings if brokers’ forecasts are to be believed. That they warned so soon after IPO seems to have burnt many market bridges. However, new management are now in place and have the opportunity to grow the business again. Payments processing and FX is a popular sector amongst investors due to the large addressable market and scalability. However, that scale also adds risk IMO, and for every Equals there may be an Argentex, hence I maintain a neutral rating overall.
Trufin (LON:TRU) (£103m)	Trading Update	SP +16% Revenue +40% to £35.5m, adj EBITDA +125% to £6.7m+, primarily driven by continued momentum within Playstack. Expects to materially exceed market expectations for the full year.	AMBER (Mark) [no section below] This would appear to hit Ed’s criteria for holding on the basis of a materially ahead trading statement, as the share price jump is currently around 16%. However, the Stock Rank is just 66 versus Ed’s 75 cut-off, which may put off some earnings surprise traders. You could argue that it needed to beat expectations given the high rating and that earnings were forecast to decline significantly. Today, despite a 66% EPS upgrade for FY25, their house broker Panmure Liberum is still forecasting a 7% decline in EPS this year, followed by a 4% the year after. Momentum is certainly with the business at the moment, leading to a 97 Momentum Rank and we can’t rule out further upgrades. However, given the unpredictability of their end-markets, it is exactly the type of stocks where investors would be wise to reconsider their positions as soon as that Momentum Ranks starts to fade.
Cornish Metals (LON:CUSN) (£101m)	Q2 Financial Statement	£6.3m operating loss, £17.9m capex. £57.4m fundraise expected to provide financial runway through to the end of Q1 2026. Excavation and earthworks for the processing plant are expected to commence in August 2025.
Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) (£42.2m)	AGM Statement	Telecoms market has remained stable throughout the first few months of FY26. Confident that FY26 performance will be in line with market expectations.	AMBER/RED (Mark) [no section below] This is an in-line statement, but that doesn’t mean much when the EPS forecast for FY26 from Cavendish is for just 0.63p (a 78x P/E) and that was downgraded from 0.76p following recent FY25 results. The forecast recovery in FY27 doesn’t seem to be backed up by a broker note (at least as far as I can see in RT) so is probably a stale forecast. Cavendish also sound like they are preparing us for a further downgrade to come saying “We have maintained our forecasts following today’s update. Although the telecoms sector remains in a subdued period.” Either way there is a gulf between current trading and the 6.4p they did in FY23, yet the market appears to be pricing them as if a recovery to these levels is just round the corner. This was rated AMBER following last year’s AGM statement, but with the forecast trend going against them and the risk of a further downgrade this should be AMBER/RED now.
Touchstone Exploration (LON:TXP) (£40.5m)	Second Quarter 2025 Results	Q2 averaged 4,399 boe/d, 69% natural gas (Q1: 4,317 boe/d, 72% natural gas). Sales $11.0m down 22%, fund flows form operation $1.43m, net loss $0.71m. Net debt $63.89m.
Skinbiotherapeutics (LON:SBTX) (£39.8m)	FY Trading Update	Revenue £4.5-4.8m (FY24 £1.2m), adj. EBITDA loss.£0.2m- £0.4m (FY24: loss £2.2m). Cash £4.8m following recent £4.2m placing. “July was a strong month with significant orders and good trading across the board”
Artisanal Spirits (LON:ART) (£32m)	New Market Expansion Update	India franchise has now been signed with PNM Tech Beverages.
OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) (£10.6m)	Launch of SlimBiome in leading US brand	Launch of the first product under the brand name 'Hydroxycut Hunger Control', and follows on from the first order announcement in April.

Graham's Section

Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB)

Up 8% to £11.91 (£227m) - Interim Results - Graham - AMBER/GREEN

This has a fairly interesting 1-year chart:

STB did not respond quite as quickly as others in the sector to the recent Supreme Court decisions re: motor finance, but they did get a short announcement out on the afternoon of the 4th August. They didn’t say much:

The Company welcomes the further clarity these decisions have provided for the motor finance industry.

STB also notes the update provided by the FCA on Sunday 3 August 2025, regarding its consultation on an industry wide compensation scheme. The Company awaits further information on the compensation scheme in order to assess fully any potential impacts on STB.

S&U (LON:SUS), by contrast, triumphantly welcomed the decision. The tone of STB was very different!

I was AMBER on this in May due to the legal and regulatory risks involved. The share price has basically doubled since then. So perhaps I was too cautious, but as you can see, the company itself has been very cautious in its own statements.

There are other cases - notably S&U - where I was happy to take a moderately positive stance at an earlier stage.

Today we have interim results from STB.

Highlights:

• Adj. PBT +36% (£23.3m) and this is very close to the actual PBT figure (£22.3m).

• Loan book up 6% (£3.8 billion)

• Net interest margin up slightly to 5.4%

• Return on average equity 9.6% (a year ago: 7.3%)

So everything has moved in the right direction, but it’s important to bear in mind that the leverage at work here more closely resembles a mainstream bank rather than the small, alternative lenders that I prefer to focus on.

From an accounting point of view, STB has assets of £4.3bn and equity of just £374m.

With such a large asset base relative to equity, the profit figure each year becomes very unpredictable..

From a safety point of view STB’s Tier 1 ratio - the standard bank measure of solvency - is 12.6%, which I think is pretty normal these days. Barclays and Lloyds are between 13-14%, for example.

STB seem confident in their position, and are raising the dividend from a low base:

CEO comment:

Secure Trust Bank has made continued progress towards delivering sustainable higher returns… We are on track to deliver £8 million of annualised cost savings by the end of 2025. We recently announced a strategic pivot away from Vehicle Finance which will enable further allocation of capital to our higher-performing specialist lending businesses…

It slightly puzzles me that they would move away from Vehicle Finance when the sector has just achieved legal clarity on its position from the Supreme Court.

Reaction to Supreme Court:

Overall the judgment was positive for the motor finance industry….

On the FCA’s possible redress scheme for customers who were treated unfairly:

There remains continued uncertainty as to the eventual cost for impacted firms. As a result, the Group has retained its remaining provision for potential redress and operational costs.

Note that the provision here is only £5.5m.

Outlook: the outgoing CEO provides a measured view on the economy.

Interest rates are not expected to fall further in 2025 with the market now expecting further rate cuts in 2026. The UK economy is expected to grow modestly through 2025, although anticipated tightening of fiscal policy and increased global uncertainty may impact the medium-term outlook. Unemployment remains elevated and is anticipated by many economists to peak in 2026 as employers adjust to higher national insurance contributions, before steadily improving to around 4% by the end of 2030.

The big strategic decision is to cease lending in Vehicle Finance, where they had over £550m of loans outstanding at the end of June. They note that this business “had high levels of historic defaulted balances due to the operational consequences of BiFD [note from Graham: Borrowers in Financial Difficulty]”.

They will be looking for growth elsewhere, beyond and within their existing Consumer Finance and Retail Finance activities:

We anticipate continued lending growth from our current sectors, but we are also assessing opportunities in adjacent and complementary markets.

Graham’s view

I will tentatively upgrade this to AMBER/GREEN, with the disclaimer that this share brings higher risk and less predictability than I’m normally comfortable with when it comes to lenders. I do not claim to be able to predict the path of future profitability here.

There are some positives that I can’t ignore:

• While STB has reacted in a very quiet way to the Supreme Court decision, it should limit the damage of any FCA redress scheme.

• Tangible book value per share is £19.37 and has been on an upward path over the last year. The share price has further to go if it’s going to narrow that gap from the current £11.91 share price.

• While earnings are unpredictable, the company is trading at a very cheap P/E multiple of only around 4x, according to market estimates. Even if they miss forecasts, this year’s multiple should be mid-single digits at most.

Therefore I’ll tentatively give this AMBER/GREEN. It’s not my top pick in the sector by any means but I think it deserves a moderately positive stance at this stage.

In general, I prefer lenders that charge higher interest rates, are more specialised, and can generate high returns without using the typical leverage that you see from major banks. STB is very much in the mainstream in that regard.

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Mark's Section

Capital (LON:CAPD)

Down 5% to 90p - H1 2025 Results - Mark - AMBER

I’ve recently sold out of this stock, having been a long-term holder. My original thesis was that the African drilling business was always much better quality than the market gave it credit for with a roughly 50% gross margin and 25% EBITDA margin. Yes, it is capital intensive, but in a market that was growing due to the gold cycle. They also recognised the cyclical nature of the business and provided drill-for-equity services for promising junior miners when the gold price was rising but capital in the sector was limited. Now the gold price is strong they increasingly tie customers into long-term production drilling. On top of this, they had a very rapidly growing capital-light labs business, which is very valuable as a separate business entity, but going for growth meant this was not reflected in the consolidated financials. Much of this thesis remains intact. For example, MSALABS continues to deliver revenue growth and they say has broken into profitability:

However, these financial results show the impact of what has gone wrong in the rest of the business:

Excluding the gains on their equity holdings, Net Profit after Tax has collapsed. Even here, these results may flatter the true picture. There are $1.7m of ERP implementation costs that are classified as exceptional . In addition, their depreciation policy in the mining fleet is largely linked to usage, and with lower mining activity they have only depreciated their $52.2m mining fleet by $214k. While the policy has some sense behind it, this figure looks light to me.

The issues are a classic case of diworsification. They entered the mining sector with a waste-stripping contract for existing customer, Centamin, at Sukari. While this lasted it was a profitable operation. However, the scale of the capex meant they raised money from the market at 58p, and after the initial four year contract, Centamin chose to not extend the work. At the same time, they had another mining contract in Gabon which was cancelled. This left them with a fleet and no contracts. They have since signed a deal with existing customer Barrick at their Reko Diq copper mine, which should utilise the majority of their fleet. However, the time taken to transport equipment and then ramp up operations in a completely new country have had a significant impact on revenue. Indeed, the breakdown of revenue between their operating segments shows that the other parts of their business are growing:

Even within the drilling side of the business, not everything is rosy and again its a case of diworsification. A move into providing drilling services in Nevada has meant rig count and revenue has grown, but profitability has taken a hit as this contract has struggled to deliver.

So why sell? Well the recent share price strength has meant that the share price was approaching all-time highs:

However, until recently, the EPS trend was downwards:

This trend has been reversed by the upgrade in guidance I commented on when they issued Q2 results in July and they re-iterate this today:

As previously announced, we increased our full-year 2025 revenue guidance, with Group revenue now expected in the range of $320-$340 million (previously $300-$320 million) and MSALABS revenue guidance at $55-$65 million (previously $50-$60 million). We had also highlighted at the FY 2024 results that margins would bottom in H1 2025 and the performance in Q2 supports this.

They have made some significant management changes, and a renewed focus on capital discipline means that net debt has come down:

This had started to become a worry, as net debt was increasing into a downturn in trading. However, one of the attractions of this company is that the operating cash flow is consistently good:

The issue has been that capex had been increasing above the rate of cash generation. So, assuming they aren’t being forced into restricting capex, this is also good news:

…while we finalise the delivery of our new contracts, we have kept tight control on our capital spend, with capex now trending to the lower end of our $45-55 million guidance for the year.

However, it is worth noting that gross debt has only declined by $2.3m since H1 2024. Finance costs for the half-year were $8.1m vs $8.2m. The interest rates they are paying (approaching around 10%) are steep. Interest income was negligible for the period suggesting that the $58m cash balance is not typical for the full period (or its stuck somewhere unable to earn interest). So despite apparent progress here, the debt level remains a significant part of the capital structure and valuations should be adjusted for this.

The issue is that they don’t look particularly cheap, even after recent EPS upgrades:

There is a discount to TBV, which indicates that there may be value. Especially if they can continue the recovery into 2027. The risk is that even if they do, the market starts to view them as a capital intensive cyclical business that deserves to trade on a typical 5-7x forward earnings, as it did for much of the recent past:

Mark’s view

Things are undoubtedly looking better here and there is significant scope for continued improvement. However, the shares don't look particularly cheap unless one makes assumptions several years ahead, especially for a sector that is never richly rated by the market. The size of the gross debt and the depreciation policy on mining equipment leave questions as to how much of this recovery will hit the bottom line. I still believe that this is a better quality business than the market gives it credit for. However, the near-term valuation metrics mean I am in no rush to buy back in. AMBER