Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 22nd Jan 2026) - ING, MPE, JDG

Good morning!


Today's Agenda is complete.


Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)RNSSummaryOur View (Author)

Fresnillo (LON:FRES) (£29.8bn | SR80)

Fresnillo completes acquisition of Probe Gold

Fresnillo has paid CAD$770 million (US$555 million) in consideration, funded with existing cash on hand. Adds a 10 million oz gold resource base, led by the Novador project - an asset capable of producing 200,000+ oz/year for over a decade.

Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) (£13.3bn | SR82)

ABF Trading Update

16 weeks to 3rd January. Group revenue -0.9% (constant currency) vs. prior estimate -1%. Primark like-for-like sales growth -2.7%,. total sales growth +1%.

South32 (LON:S32) (£9.87bn | SR87)

December 2025 Quarterly Report

FY26 production guidance maintained at operated assets. H1 operating unit costs tracking in line with guidance. Guidance for non-operated Brazil Aluminium is under review as S32 awaits the operator's revised ramp-up profile, following lower than planned quarterly volumes.

Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) (£4.35bn | SR63)

FY25 Trading Update

£14.2 million increase in contracted rent from asset management activity. 4.0% like-for-like portfolio ERV growth. 33% loan to value.

Computacenter (LON:CCC) (£3.25bn | SR88)

Pre-Close Trading Update

Q4 and therefore the year as a whole ahead of expectations. Revenue +32% (cc). Adjusted profit before tax to be no less than £270m, comfortably ahead of market expectations (£253.6m).

Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) (£3.13bn | SR70)

Trading and Operations Update

2025 production (474 kboepd) at the top end of guidance. Stronger than anticipated free cash flow generation. 2026 guidance: production of 435-455 kboepd, production rates to increase towards 500 kboepd by year-end.

AJ Bell (LON:AJB) (£1.8bn | SR47)

Q1 Trading Update

Platform: customer numbers increased by 29,000 to close at 673,000, up 20% in the last year and 5% in the quarter. Net inflows £1.5 billion. Investments: net inflows £0.3 billion.

B&M European Value Retail SA (LON:BME) (£1.74bn | SR48)

Q3 FY26 Trading Statement

Q3 LfL revenue at B&M UK down 0.6%. Deeper investments planned to clear discontinued lines, reduce SKU count and to clean up stock. Now expects FY26 Adjusted EBITDA £440m to £475m, compared with previous guidance of £470m to £520m.BLACK

Senior (LON:SNR) (£956m | SR64)

Post-Close Trading Update

Stronger than expected trading since November, notably in Aerospace. Full-year adjusted PBT to be comfortably above previous expectations. There will be restructuring costs (treated as adjusting items in the results) at the Flexonics business.

Boku (LON:BOKU) (£677m | SR48)

Trading update for the year ended 31 December 2025

Revenue for FY 2025 is expected to be ahead of market expectations at c.$128.5m (exps: $127.5m). FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA also ahead of market expectations at c.$41m (exps: $39.8m). 2026: expects to deliver medium-term guidance of organic revenue growth above 20% on a CAGR basis and adjusted EBITDA margins above 30%.

M P Evans (LON:MPE) (£653m | SR97)

2025 Crop and production

Own crops +8%, total crops -4%. Crude palm oil production -3%. Use of independent crops being deliberately restricted (“a low-margin source of supply”). Average mill-gate price for CPO up 5% vs. prior year.AMBER/GREEN (Mark)
The figures here look in line with recently upgraded Cavendish forecasts, with commodity strength offsetting a decline in production, following a change in strategy to buy in fewer third-party crops.
With the share price of MP Evans, and all Palm Oil producers, doing well recently on the back of this commodity strength, there is no getting round that investors will need to take a view on where we are in the commodity cycle for Palm Oil.
Those who are bullish and expect current CPO and PK pricing to remain elevated, will see further upgrades and upside to come this year. Those expecting the recent commodity pricing strength to moderate, may be better off getting out ahead of that.
The recent declining Momentum Rank gives some pause for thought. However, this remains cheap enough for anyone neutral on commodity pricing to take a mostly positive view.

Harworth (LON:HWG) (£538m | SR39)

Trading Update FY-2025

“We remain confident in achieving £1bn of EPRA NDV, albeit… it is increasingly challenging to deliver against the roadmap set back in 2021. Against this backdrop, the timeline for achieving our milestone extends beyond December 2027, with a range between the end of 2028 and end of 2029.

Wickes (LON:WIX) (£524m | SR93)

Q4 Trading Update

2025 adjusted PBT expected to be in line with market forecasts. Retail LfL revenue growth 5.7% for the year. Group LfL revenue growth 4.9%.

Young & Cos Brewery (LON:YNGA) (£503m | SR86)

Trading Update and Proposed Move to Main Market

LfL sales +11.2% for three weeks to 5th January. For the 14 week period ending 5th January, total managed revenue +5.6% (LfL +5.7%). Admission to the Main Market “will enhance the Company's corporate profile and appeal”.

Future (LON:FUTR) (£484m | SR73)

Acquisition of SheerLuxe

Buys “a UK-based digital publishing group that combines the authority of a trusted media brand with the authenticity and engagement of the creator economy.” £39.9m upfront payment from existing facilities, plus earn-out. Total consideration capped at £80 million (requires growth to FY 2029).

Auction Technology (LON:ATG) (£409m | SR25)

AGM TRADING UPDATE & Statement regarding Auction Technology Group plc

FY guidance confirmed. Separately, Fitzwalter attempts to clarify matters, saying there is “inconsistent information between certain shareholders as to the events that culminated in the Company's pre-emptive announcement of FitzWalter's possible offer”.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) (£403m | SR62)

Operational & Corporate Update

2025 gross average production of 41,560 bopd, towards upper end of tightened annual guidance range of 40,000 – 42,000 bopd. 2026 gross average production guidance of 37,000 to 41,000 bopd. Considering a listing on the Euronext Growth Oslo, subject to favourable market conditions.

Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) (£397m | SR65)

Trading Update

2025: in line with expectations. Revenue +19% (£318m), adj. PBT +12% (£35.8m). Outlook: “the impact of prior economic shocks is now receding… The Group has entered 2026 with good momentum and continues to trade in line with the Board's expectations.” Outlook for refinance lending is particularly strong.

Elixirr International (LON:ELIX) (£393m | SR74)

Trading Update and Interim Dividend

FY 25 revenue is expected to meet or exceed market expectations of £149 million. FY 25 Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to meet or exceed market expectations of 28.1% - 29.2%. Has entered FY 26 with a record amount of revenue contracted for the year.

Judges Scientific (LON:JDG) (£382m | SR41)

Full Year Trading Statement and Notice of Results

Satisfactory performances in the Rest of Europe and China have been more than offset by the USA, where there has been no recovery since the September update. Adjusted earnings per share for 2025 to be in the region of 275p per share, 6% down on current market expectations (292p). Starts 2026 with a lower-than-desired order book. Geotek's next coring expedition is now unlikely to be until early 2027. Board considers it prudent to provide guidance for 2026 Adjusted earnings per share of 200-250p.BLACK (AMBER/RED ↓) (Graham)

While I still have great admiration for Judges, I am going to have to downgrade our stance here by one notch to AMBER/RED, in light of the profit warning. But this is one of those instances where I’ll be eager to go back to neutral or positive, if there is evidence of stabilisation. In the short-term, however, I’d be braced for continued difficulties.

Forterra (LON:FORT) (£366m | SR61)

Full Year 2025 Trading Update

Revenue of c.£386m, 12% ahead of the prior year (2024: £344.3m). Adjusted EBITDA in line with market expectations with margin progression, adjusted PBT and adjusted EPS ahead. Net debt c. £56m. Longer term market fundamentals remain attractive.

Mears (LON:MER) (£287m | SR88)

Pre-Close Trading Update

Expects to report Maintenance-led revenues for FY25 +10% to in excess of £610m. Expects to report Management-led revenues for FY25 -13% to in excess of £500m (2024: £577m).
Adj. profit before tax -2% to no less than £62.5m (2024: £64.1m) (slightly ahead of consensus).
Average daily net cash position during FY25 of £52.8m (2024: £59.6m).

Taylor Maritime (LON:TMI) (£212m | SR42)

Trading Update, Quarterly Results & Dividend

Revenue $28.0m, Net loss $3.2m, Adj. EBITDA $5.2m. Cash $187.7. Distribution of $143.4m to shareholders at 94.41cents per share, based on the unaudited net asset value.

Netcall (LON:NET) (£201m | SR65)

Trading Update and Notice of Results

H1 Revenue + 15% to £26.5m (+11% organic), Adj. EBITDA +12% to £6.4m, in line with management expectations. Net Cash £14.8m (30 Jun 25: £27.2m).

Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) (£198m | SR91)

Trading Update

FY revenue +7.2% to £158.5m, slightly ahead of market expectations, Ad. PBT +37.9% to £21.1m, ahead of market expectations.

Tristel (LON:TSTL) (£191m | SR75)

Positive H1 Trading Update & Directorate Change

H1 revenue +14%, Adj. EBITDA +17%, Cash £13.3m. Matt Sassone, Chief Executive Officer, has confirmed to the Board his decision to resign to take up a worldwide President role with a large US multinational.


Kitwave (LON:KITW) (£185m | SR68)

Recommended Cash Acquisition of Kitwave Group plc

295 pence in cash per Kitwave Share, 33.5% premium to last night’s close. Recommended by the board. Irrevocable undertakings and a letter of intent for 21.6% of shares count.PINK

Kitwave (LON:KITW) (£185m | SR68)

Unaudited Interim Results

Revenue +21% (-1% LFL) to £802.7m, adj. Op Profit +11.7% to £38m, trading has been in line with management expectations since the Group's last trading update.

Animalcare (LON:ANCR) (£175m | SR31)

Trading Update & Notice of Capital Markets Event

Revenue +20% CCY to £89.1m, u/l EBITDA +50% to £17.4m, (consensus: £89.2m and £17.6m).
Net debt £9.1m (FY24: £9.0m).
Entered 2026 with positive momentum.

Fonix (LON:FNX) (£168m | SR60)

Trading Update

H1 Adj. EBITDA +6.4% to £8.3m, in line with management's expectations. Enters H2 with positive momentum.

Genel Energy (LON:GENL) (£166m | SR36)

Appointment of Chair

Patrick Allman-Ward as an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Board.

Eurocell (LON:ECEL) (£123m | SR70)

Year End Trading Update

FY25 Sales and adjusted PBT to be in line with expectations (sales flat). Expect pre-IFRS 16 net debt £22m, (30 Jun 25: £29m) 0.7x pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA, ahead of our previous guidance of 0.9x. “Trading conditions have remained subdued, with challenging macroeconomic conditions and weak consumer confidence continuing to impact both the repair, maintenance and improvement market (RMI) and new build housing.”


Pharos Energy (LON:PHAR) (£87.6m | SR73)

Trading and Operations Update

FY WI Production 5,398 boepd net, in line with guidance (Vietnam 4,095 boepd, Egypt 1,303 bopd). Revenue $115m, Cash $40m. FY26: production guidance increased from 2025 to 5,200 - 6,400 boepd net. Group capex $50m.


Ilika (LON:IKA) (£68.7m | SR20)

Half-year Financial Report

H1 Revenue -40% to £0.6m, due to reduction in grant funding. LBITDA excl. SBP £3.2m (25H1: LBITDA £1.9m), Cash £6.9m (25H1: £10.1m)
Confident they can secure larger follow on orders for the Steareax M300 batteries.

Kooth (LON:KOO) (£37.8m | SR54)

$2.6m contract win with new US State

One year contract with an undisclosed US State for the provision of digital mental health services for up to 100,000 students. The contract has an expected value of $2.6 million.

Fiinu (LON:BANK) (£32.4m | SR4)

Everfex Earn-out Update

None of the 20 million additional consideration shares will be issued to Granicus Holdings OŰ, since review confirmed order book was below threshold.

Strategic Minerals (LON:SML) (£30.8m | SR27)

Placing and Subscription to Raise £4 Million

£4m gross raised at 1.3p the closing mid-market price of the Company's shares last night.

Emmerson (LON:EML) (£28.5m | SR20)

Arbitration Update

The Company is required to submit its Memorial (case outline) by the end of Q1 2026.

Works co uk (LON:WRKS) (£25.3m | SR85)

Interim results and Christmas trading update

H1 LFL sales +0.3%, Stores +4%, online -36%, Pre-IFRS 16 Adjusted EBITDA loss of £1.0m, adjusted loss before tax of £5.1m (H1 FY25: £6.5m loss)., net debt £5.3m (H1 FY25: £8.5m), on track to deliver FY26 profit in line with market expectations.

Predator Oil & Gas Holdings (LON:PRD) (£23.7m | SR9)

Commencement of Trinidad drilling programme

BON-18 well commenced in Bonasse Field, expected to take 2 weeks and add 300-400bopd.

Artisanal Spirits (LON:ART) (£23.4m | SR17)

Trading Update and Notification of FY Results Date

In line with expectations with in-market trading improving in H2 versus H1 in the key geographies of UK, Europe, USA and China.

Medpal AI (LON:MPAL) (£22.2m | SR6)

Operational Efficiency Gains in Pharmacy

Previously it took an hour to process 40 prescriptions, but with the update in place, the Robopharma robot is capable of processing more than 100 prescriptions in less than 5 minutes.

Maintel Holdings (LON:MAI) (£19.4m | SR34)

Trading Update

Expects FY25 results will be in line with consensus, with total revenue expected to be £92.2m and Adjusted EBITDA expected to be £7.2m. Net debt £18.3m (31 Dec 2024: £16.7m)

Eenergy (LON:EAAS) (£18.8m | SR37)

Launch of new funding solution and first contract

First multi-site award with Symphony Healthcare Services, with a total contract value of £0.7m

Ebiquity (LON:EBQ) (£17.9m | SR23)

Trading Update

Expects FY25 revenues of c.£73.4m, adjusted EBITDA of c.£8.1m and adjusted operating profit of c.£4.6m.
Expects FY26 revenues and profits to be ahead of FY25.

Ingenta (LON:ING) (£15.2m | SR99)

Trading Update

Revenue flat at £10.3m, Adj. adjusted EBITDA -11% to £1.6m ahead of market expectations. Net cash £4.7m (2024: £3.6m). Final Dividend +10% to 2.75p.
“...encouraging sign of the operational efficiency of the business and why the investment in sales should help accelerate growth and profitability in future years.”

AMBER/GREEN (Mark - I hold)
The ahead of expectations was expected (at least by me) given the strength of their H1 performance. Cavendish upgraded EPS by 22%, and my feeling is that the company will come in slightly above the broker EPS number when results are released in April. However, they are still likely to be slightly behind last year’s figure. This reflects a slow sales pipeline conversion, which is perhaps understandable given the market backdrop, but not helped by a difficulty finding the right calibre of technical salesperson.
The net cash balance at £4.7m came in ahead of both my estimates and those of the broker, and underpins a valuation that remains very low compared to an already cheap UK small-cap market, let alone the software sector. Hence, with a StockRank of 99, I am in no rush to change our view (or my holding).

Kelso group (LON:KLSO) (£13.4m | SR36)

Update on Investment in NCC Group plc

Expects to receive cash return from NNC’s disposal of Escode announced yesterday.

Hardide (LON:HDD) (£13.2m | SR42)

Annual results to 30 September 2025

Revenue +28% to £6m, EBITDA £1m (FY25: £0.0m), EPS 0.2p (FY25: -1.9p), net debt £1.6m (FY25: £2.1m) . “Strong trading momentum of Q4 FY25 continued into Q1 FY26”


Prospex Energy (LON:PXEN) (£12.4m | SR14)

Rental of Transformer at El Romeral

Contract for the rental of a transformer at the El Romeral gas to power plant in Andalucía, Spain

RC Fornax (LON:RCFX) (£11.5m | SR35)

Acceptance onto Major UK Defence Framework

Selection as a Specialist Provider on Aurora's Evolve network

Cloudbreak Discovery (LON:CDL) (£10.5m | SR6)

Positive Gold Results at Crofton & £1.85m Placing

15 samples over 1g/t gold. £1.85m gross raised at 0.56p, 25% discount to last night’s close.

Graham's Section

Judges Scientific (LON:JDG)

Down 11% to £51.20 (£341m) - Full Year Trading Statement and Notice of Final Results - Graham - AMBER/RED ↓

The introduction doesn’t try to hide the bad news here:

The Board of Judges Scientific plc, a group focused on acquiring and developing companies in the scientific instrument sector, provides the following update on the Group's trading performance for the financial year ended 31 December 2025 and the continued headwinds impacting the outlook for FY26.

The share price is down over 10% this morning but the news can’t come as a major shock to shareholders: Judges has been struggling to regain momentum for some time.

We were most recently neutral on it in November, when we learned that the driving force behind the company for so many years, Mr. David Cicurel, was moving to non-Exec Chair.

Trading conditions

There have been “uncertainties around US federal funding for scientific research” (Trump-related, I presume?). The company informs us today that in the “there has been no recovery since the September update” when it comes to the United States. Other regions have been “satisfactory.”

Here’s a quote from an article published in the last few days by The Hill, a US political newspaper:

After a year of government layoffs and sweeping funding cuts under President Trump, many researchers are hanging on by a thread.
The administration has said it is realigning federal spending to match its agenda, but scientists respond that even proposals that advance the White House’s goals have been ignored or cut. Medical advancements, education research, defense priorities — no area has proven safe from frozen funding, which has also come alongside massive reductions in the government agencies that support these areas.

And in even more bad news for Judges:

Additionally, despite general resilience in industrial-focussed markets, H2 saw reduced investments in offshore wind which had been a strong growth driver for the Group.

Order intake: this saw a "progressive weakening” during 2025, and by the end of the year was down 6% for the full year.

2025 guidance: adjusted EPS will be c. 275p, 6% below expectations of 292p.

For context, adjusted EPS was 283.4p in 2024, and it had been 374.6p in 2023.

2026 outlook: this is unsurprisingly poor.

The Group starts 2026 with a lower-than-desired order book. The reduction in Organic order intake has meant that the opening Organic order book has reduced to 15.7 weeks of sales (31 December 2024: 18.7 weeks; 16.9 weeks without Geotek's coring expedition).
The delivery of Geotek's next coring expedition is now unlikely to be until early 2027.

As we noted at the time of the acquisition of Geotek, the addition of this business was likely to increase the lumpiness of JDG’s results, and this is increasingly evident now.

In the US, “uncertainty remains around the timing of a return to normal trading in the USA”.

2026 adjusted EPS will be 200-250p, “which assumes the absence of a coring expedition and no recovery of trading in the USA”.

Graham’s view

I’m a long admirer of this business but with sustained weak performance, it’s difficult for me to be positive on it now.

It’s not the company’s fault that its share price got overheated a few years ago, with expectations that turned out to be unrealistic:

5b13d4a7-c7b3-4840-a80b-c3b6ac3e153a.png

The earnings multiple soared to impressive heights before returning to a more level:

7c5f59f8-ff0a-480f-b3a5-159ddff63588.png

Some reasons to be careful:

  • This is not just a “blip”; revenues and orders have shown signs of moderating and weakening for a few years now. Organic revenue was already down 8% in 2024, before the company ran into a very difficult 2025.

  • As a victim of its own success, my impression is that Judges has struggled in recent years to find exciting acquisitions that can successfully move the needle. Geotek doesn’t seem particularly successful at this point.

  • Dependence on government funding is a double-edged sword and at the moment, Judges is on the wrong end of this risk.

  • The wide range of possible outcomes for 2026 (200-250p adjusted EPS) implies limited visibility.

Some reasons to be positive:

  • The business is still profitable; even at the low end of new guidance.

  • At the top end of new guidance, the shares are now trading on a PER of 20x, which is not a terrible entry point for investors who believe in the long-term resilience of the group.

  • The new CEO (from February 2026) has been with Judges for nearly 3 years already, and had a long stint at Halma and before that at Renishaw. Perhaps he’ll bring some new ideas that can reinvigorate performance?

While I still have great admiration for Judges, I am going to have to downgrade our stance here by one notch to AMBER/RED, in light of the profit warning. But this is one of those instances where I’ll be eager to go back to neutral or positive, if there is evidence of stabilisation.

In the short-term, however, I’d be braced for continued difficulties.


Mark's Section

Ingenta (LON:ING)

Down 7% at 97p - Trading Update - Mark (I hold) - AMBER/GREEN

(At the time of writing, Mark holds a long position in this stock.)

Good news here:

The Group expects to report revenues for FY25 of £10.3m (2024: £10.2m), with adjusted EBITDA ahead of market expectations at £1.6m (2024: £1.8m).

However, I’ve got to say that I did expect this. At the half-year they did £0.9m adjusted EBITDA, and while each half can be noisy, it didn’t take much for them to beat full year expectations, and I think many shareholders took the same view. This is a very conservatively run company, and adjusted EBITDA here is almost certainly adjusted down to account for the FX effects seen in H1.

Broker coverage:

In order to work out how this all plays out, I turn to Cavendish’s update note. This is actually a slight miss on their revenue forecasts, but gross profit increases slightly due to better mix. The beat on EBITDA flows down the income statement to give a 22% upgrade in Adjusted EPS to 10p. Although this is a sizeable upgrade to EPS, it is still down on the previous year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the company are still holding something in reserve and end up slightly higher than this, but it is still unlikely to exceed the previous year’s figure.

Contracts:

Although the company highlighted a new Edify customer onboarded during the period, I can’t help feeling they are a little disappointed with the slow pace of converting a large sales pipeline into new customers. This is perhaps understandable given how weak much of the business landscape was in the latter part of 2025, with few companies committing to new software systems, given their own variable outlooks. However, this hasn’t been helped by the previously mentioned difficulty in getting salespeople with the relevant specialist skills. However, they are a little reticent around how long it will take to see the fruit of recent sales activity in the numbers, saying they are:

…confident that new business activities will bear fruit as the year progresses, and achieving growth in profitability from the 2025 level will to some extent be dependent on the speed with which new customers can be onboarded. The Group expects to announce FY25 results in April 2026 and will provide a more detailed outlook on 2026 at that time.

And:

Looking forward, the existing teams are actively working on sales proposals which will be submitted in the first quarter of 2026 which we hope to report on in due course.

Cash:

While I largely expected the EBITDA beat, this is a pleasant surprise:

…closing cash balances at 31 December 2025 of £4.7m (2024: £3.6m). The Group has no debt.

This cash figure was ahead of my expectations, especially as they paid £630k out in dividends during the year. It also came in significantly above Cavendish’s £3.8m estimate. Today’s commitment to pay out a further 2.75p final dividend, means that Cavendish’s forecast is also exceeded.

Valuation:

Cavendish point out:

Ingenta trades on an FY25E adj P/E 10.5x (ex-cash P/E of 7.4x), a significant discount to its peer group on 18x.

This is a very cheaply-rated stock compared to an already cheap UK small-cap market, let alone the software sector.

Mark’s view

I view this company as pretty much a free option at the current price. The high level of recurring revenues together with the high free cash flow these generate, plus a third of the market cap in net cash, means that the current valuation looks more than underpinned, even if their strategy to drive sales growth fails to deliver.

The total addressable market for their software solution is huge, so there is a certain amount of frustration in the market with the slow progress in delivering a sales uplift. A sentiment I share. However, with long sales cycles and weak market conditions in 2025, it shouldn’t be surprising that it will take some time for additional sales efforts to be seen in the numbers. If they can generate meaningful sales uplift, the recurring nature of the wins mean that Cavendish’s 260p Price Target doesn’t look out of place.

Hence, I am in no rush to sell, or change our previously mostly positive AMBER/GREEN view. Especially while it remains one of the most high-rated stocks by the Stockopedia algorithms:

9cc65bf8-e0bc-4783-8dfd-27c90945544d.png


M P Evans (LON:MPE)

Up 1% at 1264p - 2025 Crop and production - Mark - AMBER/GREEN

Their own crops delivered a decent increase in production. However, there was a significant decline in third party crops bought in:

f0e7746f-d8bf-42a8-b237-71a64c3b2e1b.png

The company is keen to point out that:

The Group continue deliberately to restrict the amount of independent crop purchased for processing in its mills, a low-margin source of supply, with an overall 41% decrease in 2025. This is part of the Group's ongoing strategy to change the input mix to its processing facilities to prioritise its own, higher-margin, harvest.

It did mean that overall production was down 3% for both Crude Palm Oil and Palm Kernels

Pricing:

The decline in production has been more than offset in the increase in price achieved:

The Group received an average mill-gate price for its CPO of US$866 per tonne in 2025, 5% higher than the US$823 in the previous year. Prices for PK were, on average, US$748 per tonne in 2025, a substantial 42% higher than the US$525 in 2024. This high-price environment has had a positive effect on the Group's revenue and profitability, as reported in the Group's announcement on 10 November 2025.

It is this huge increase in the price of Palm Kernels that has had a significant positive impact on profitability at MP Evans and all Palm Oil producers. Palm Kernels are the seed inside the oil palm fruit, meaning that they will always be a smaller part of palm production. While crude palm oil is mainly an edible oil, whereas palm kernel oil often goes into detergents, cosmetics and personal care. This makes demand less price sensitive, and growth in demand for these products has been responsible for the big price rises.

Looking at the numbers, it seems these are in line with wat their broker Cavendish expected for 2025, following upgrades towards the end of the year.

2026:

Looking forward the company say:

Pricing in early 2026 remains robust, with the Group tendering its CPO output for sale at approximately US$850 per tonne

It would be good to get an update on the Palm Kernel pricing, as strength there has also been a big driver of recent upgrades.

There is also the issue of recent flooding:

Consistent with the Group's announcement on 2 December 2025, work to restore normal operations at the Simpang Kiri estate in Aceh following some flooding has progressed well and there was no material impact on the Group's crop, production or costs for 2025.

They pointedly don’t say that there has been no impact to 2026, which leave this open to the possibility that production may be down

Forecasts:

Cavendish sees EPS dropping by 27% in FY26 to 154cents, based on a $750/tonne mill-gate CPO pricing. There is still scope for this to be upgraded if pricing remains firm. However, they say it is too early in the year to consider this. Whatever happens they expect the dividend to increase, and give a 4.8% yield.

Mark’s view

The share price has done well over the last few years. Despite this, it still trades on a forward P/E of less than 10:

9257c7f7-5733-4b86-8b8b-a927ac523f5c.png

However, it has always been a cheaply-rated stock, reflecting that it is largely a commodity play. Over the very long term, management has done well, growing the business. However, overlaid on this is significant gyrations in price reflecting the medium-term commodity cycle:

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I don’t expect that to change anytime soon, so anyone investing here absolutely has to take a view on where we are in that commodity cycle. Those who are bullish and expect current CPO and PK pricing to remain elevated, will see further upgrades and upside to come this year. Those expecting the recent commodity pricing strength to moderate, may be better off getting out ahead of that. The recent declining Momentum Rank and share price chart suggests that at least some larger investors are taking that view:

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However, it remains a SuperStock, and not that expensive, so I don’t think these concerns are enough to change our previously mostly positive view of AMBER/GREEN.

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