Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 2nd February 2026) - CHH, AEP, XPF, GDP, ATG

Good morning!

As things have been rather volatile in recent trading sessions, here are some interesting overnight figures as markets reopen after the weekend:

• FTSE futures down 0.7% (it's still over 10,100)
• S&P futures down 1.1%
• Gold down 7% at $4,575 (the high was $5,600 last Thursday)
• Silver down 13% at $74 (the high was nearly $122 last Thursday)
• Oil down 5%, with Brent Crude at $65.70
• Bitcoin stable at $76,400

The only concrete reason for the gold sell-off that I'm aware of is Trump's announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair (as I discussed in Friday's Week Ahead article).

While Mr Warsh was considered the front-runner for the job, the alternative candidates were considered more "dovish".

Warsh has spoken out many times on the need to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet (which is inherently deflationary and negative for commodity prices, as when the Fed sells assets, it reduces the supply of dollars).

It remains to be seen if Warsh will be able to act on his prior beliefs when he takes over at the Fed in May. But the commodity sell-off that his appointment triggered has seen a more "risk-off" attitude take hold across various financial markets.

Gold, in particular, had been rising exponentially in January. It has now given up most of those gains, punishing anyone who jumped onto the trend too late:

Source: tradingeconomics.com

As far as the broader equity markets are concerned, what we've witnessed so far is just a brief period of profit-taking. It remains to be seen whether it follows through to become something more serious.

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Today's Agenda is complete.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our View (Author)
AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) (£211bn | SR70)	AstraZeneca begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange	NYSE listing will be harmonised across London, New York and Stockholm. FTSE 100 listing will remain. Imfinzi recommendation based on Phase III results showing 29% reduction in risk of progression, recurrence or death vs chemotherapy.
Balfour Beatty (LON:BBY) (£3.5bn | SR76)	Balfour Beatty secures £315m Warwickshire contract	Extends existing partnership through to 2033. Option to extend by a further six years based on delivery of initial term, taking potential value to £900m.
Smithson Investment Trust (LON:SSON) (£1.61bn | SR N/A)	Interim Results Announcement	NAVps -1.8% to 1,601.5p. Benchmark index return +10.2%. Conversion of SSON into an open-ended fund remains underway and, if approved by shareholders, will allow investors to sell their units in line with NAV, eliminating the previous discount.
GCP Infrastructure Investments (LON:GCP) (£635m | SR77)	Disposals, NAV and dividend declaration	Certain social housing borrowers have agreed disposals totalling £47.5m GCP will receive day one cash proceeds of £43m at valuations in line with NAV. NAV fell by 1.1% to 100.27p in the final quarter of 2025. Quarterly dividend of 1.75pps declared, in line with target.
Discoverie (LON:DSCV) (£617m | SR43)	Q3 Trading Update	Sales +5% in Q3 (+1% organic). Book-to-bill was 1.03x. Order book provides good coverage for final quarter, full-year adjusted earnings to be in line with expectations.
AEP Plantations (LON:AEP) (£570m | SR97)	Trading Statement and Notice of Results	2025 CPO production +7% to 425.8mt at $853/mt (+7% vs FY24). PK Production +13% at $731/mt (+44% vs FY24).	GREEN = (Graham) I'm happy to leave our positive stance unchanged after another constructive update from the company. CPO production continues to increase, helped both by AEP's own production but also in particular by external purchasing, and a new mill is set to open at the end of the year.
ME International (LON:MEGP) (£523m | SR74)	Appointment of Deputy CEO	Vladimir Crasneanscki appointed deputy CEO w/ immediate effect. He was previously Managing Director UK and was instrumental in the roll-out of laundry services in the UK, a key growth project.
Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) (£453m | SR73)	Pure Protection Market Study Update	Welcomes FCA report into the distribution of pure protection products to retail customers. Believes report is “positive development for MAB” and notes the FCA “does not envisage significant market interventions”.
Elixirr International (LON:ELIX) (£392m | SR77)	Acquisition of Kvadrant Consulting A/S	Acquired for up to £18m (7.8x 2025 EBITDA). Notes Kvadrant achieved 25% revenue CAGR from 2022-25. Kvadrant specialises in “commercial transformation” and “transaction services”. Founder joins ELIX as partner.
Auction Technology (LON:ATG) (£373m | SR26)	No intention to make an offer for ATG plc	ATG Board unanimously rejected FitzWalter's proposed 400p offer. “In light of the Board's rejection and refusal to facilitate access to due diligence, FitzWalter confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for ATG.”	PINK (AMBER =) (Roland) [no section below] Today’s update confirms what already seemed likely, which is that FitzWalter does not plan to make an offer to buy ATG. As I’ve commented previously, my guess is that one of FitzWalter’s aims – perhaps even its primary goal – was to try and stir up shareholder pressure on the current board to improve performance. We’ll have to see whether any changes result over the coming weeks and months. I would certainly like to see a change of management here as my feeling is that this business is underperforming its potential. However, my impression is that the board is unrepentant and does not recognise some of the issues put forward by FitzWalter. On balance, I’m going to leave my neutral view unchanged today. While the forward earnings multiple of <10x looks cheap, consensus forecasts have fallen steadily over the last year and organic growth has been weak. Debt levels also remain material at c.2x EBITDA. I would like to see some sign of performance improving before taking a more positive view.
VP (LON:VP.) (£217m | SR65)	CEO Transition Update	Alice Woodwark assumes the CEO role from today. Her predecessor, Anna Bielby, will remain employed as an advisor until 31 Mar 26.
Midwich (LON:MIDW) (£204m | SR67)	Proposed appointment of Chief Financial Officer	Adam Councell appointed as CFO. He was previously the CFO of Marlowe from 2021 until its takeover by Mitie Group in Aug 25.
Gooch & Housego (LON:GHH) (£190m | SR63)	Chief Financial Officer appointment date	James Corte will join as CFO from 9 April 2026.
Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG) (£190m | SR88)	Rebrand and Change of Company Name	Rebranding to become BTG Consulting plc to “more accurately represent” its range of services and strategy. Ticker will change to BTG, at a date TBC.
Cab Payments Holdings (LON:CABP) (£184m | SR53)	Statement re Possible Offer	Helios Consortium has made an increased cash offer of $1.15 per share. Helios has control over or has received a letter of support for the offer in respect of 50.33% of CABP shares.	PINK
GCP Asset Backed Income Fund (LON:GABI) (£118m | SR84)	Realisation plan update, NAV & Dividend	NAV -6.4% to 59.55p at 31 Dec 25. Does not intend to provide further asset-level detail on NAV movements due to “concentration” of portfolio and ongoing disposal discussions. Declares quarterly dividend of 1.58125pps.
Brave Bison (LON:BBSN) (£80 million | SR34)	Major Contract Win	MiniMBA has signed €1.3m training contract with “one of the world's largest food and beverage conglomerates”. Will be recognised in the current financial year.
Churchill China (LON:CHH) (£43m | SR83)	Full Year Trading Update 2025	Trading in the second half of the year met its expectations, with turnover for the year at circa £76m and profit before tax expected to be in line with market expectations. “Materials performed well despite reduced sector volumes, although the decision of a key UK customer to source their materials supply directly will influence revenue going forward. However mitigating actions are expected to limit the impact on profitability.”	BLACK? (AMBER =) (Roland - I hold) 2025 trading was in line with expectations and performance in Europe showed some signs of recovery in H2. However, the core UK market remains under pressure from macro conditions and Churchill’s materials business has lost a key customer. Despite a double-digit share price gain so far this year, the stock continues to trade c.25% below tangible book value. I share the StockRanks’ view that this market-leading and venerable business is a Contrarian play and I would have liked to upgrade to AMBER/GREEN today. However, the lack of any clear outlook statement today and the seeming risk of a downgrade to 2026 forecasts means I’m going to stay neutral a little longer.
Tungsten West (LON:TUN) (£38m | SR27)	Project Update	Debt funding progressing well, with a number of potential lenders advanced into term sheet stage. Long-lead orders for key equipment and detailed engineering work advanced. “This work programme will have the Company producing tungsten concentrate within 12 months of funding.”
Atome (LON:ATOM) (£34m | SR11)	Villeta Project Update	Finalisation of the definitive project financing documentation for the Villeta Project is continuing with key stakeholders. Now targeting Final Investment Decision to be achieved around the end of February 2026.
XP Factory (LON:XPF) (£25m | SR57)	Trading Update	“Given slower than expected Boom B2C performance over the key festive period which has continued into January, the Board now expects FY26 revenue and EBITDA to be below current market estimates with the Board expecting FY26 pre-IFRS16 adjusted EBITDA of between £5.0m and £6.0m… FY27 is also therefore expected to be a year of consolidation, with remaining uncertainty driven by market conditions.” Cavendish updated forecasts: - FY26E adj EPS: -0.8p (prev. +0.6p) - FY27E adj EPS: -0.8p (prev. +1.5p)	BLACK (AMBER/RED =) (Roland) Disappointing trading for the Boom Battle Bar has prompted a big profit warning today. This has prompted management to scale back new opening plans, meaning that FY27 is now expected to be a year of consolidation, rather than growth. Broker Cavendish has slashed EBITDA forecasts by 30%-45% and now expects XP Factory to report a loss at the adjusted earnings level for both FY26 and FY27 (y/e March). The remaining investment case here seems to be based on the hope that the Boom format can achieve the same level of success and profitability as Escape Hunt. In such a scenario, I agree XP Factory could be worth more. But for now, I think it makes sense to remain sceptical and cautious. I’m leaving our view unchanged today. In my opinion, investors considering owning this stock might want to do more in-depth research into the business model and market opportunity before forming a conviction view.
Metals One (LON:MET1) (£22m | SR5)	Update re Investment in Fulcrum Metals	Increased investment in Fulcrum through exercise of 2.9 million warrants at 5p. Increases shareholding to 6.3%.
Goldplat (LON:GDP) (£19m | SR98)	Trading Update	As a result of higher gold prices, increased volumes and operational agility and improvements, the Board expects that results for FY26 will materially exceed prevailing market expectations.	AMBER (Roland) [no section below] Goldplat is bucking the trend among gold miners today, with a rising share price despite the sharp fall in the price of gold in recent days. No updated broker notes are available on Research Tree this morning, so the only clue we have to the company’s revised expectations is its use of the word material. This generally suggests an increase of at least 10% relative to prior forecasts. Zeus forecasts in Dec 25 were for earnings of 1.8p per share in FY26 (y/e 30 June). Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect earnings to be above 2p per share in FY26. Presumably Goldplat could still suffer if the gold price falls much further, but I assume management have considered this in today’s update. It is also worth noting that with seven months of the current financial year already completed, the company should have some idea of a baseline for guidance. My estimate leaves the shares on a FY26 forward P/E of 6, but I suspect earnings expectations will change again — for better or worse – between now and the end of June. After such a strong bull run in gold, I see this micro cap as a special situation requiring detailed sector and company knowledge, especially following last year’s change of model in Ghana. For these reasons, I’m taking a neutral view today.
Various Eateries (LON:VARE) (£19m | SR46)	Full Year Results	FY September 2025: revenue +6%, LfL sales +2%. Adjusted EBITDA £1.4m. Net cash £4.6m. Strong start to FY26, LfL sales +9% over 5-week festive period.
B90 Holdings (LON:B90) (£16m | SR23)	Trading Update	2025 revenue ahead of market expectations, EBITDA in line with market expectations, reflecting higher marketing spend.
CAP-XX (LON:CPX) (£13m | SR11)	Interim Results	Revenue +9% (A$2.6m). Loss after tax A$1.5m. Cash A$2.9m. “We are running a lean, debt-free company that currently maintains a healthy cash runway and a strong orderbook.”
Litigation Capital Management (LON:LIT) (£11m | SR21)	Increase in Credit Facility and Waiver Extensions	Credit facility increased from $75m to $100m, covenant waiver extended to 1st March 2026. LIT is working “towards a long-term resolution of its capital position”.
Zoo Digital (LON:ZOO) (£9m | SR49)	Board and Commercial Update	Increase in Request for Proposal activity. Chairman and another NED step down.

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Graham's Section

AEP Plantations (LON:AEP)

Up 2% to £14.95 (£580m) - Trading Statement - Graham - GREEN =

AEP Plantations Plc, which owns, operates and develops sustainable palm-oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, today announces a trading update covering the financial year ended 31 December 2025.

M P Evans (LON:MPE) made it into my “12 stocks of Christmas”, and AEP is an obvious alternative for anyone interested in palm oil.

Unlike MPE, AEP has been increasing the quantity of external crop that it purchases (external FFB purchased), with more external crop purchased than it produced on its own:

Its own production rose 6%, “primarily driven by improved output from young and matured palms in the Bengkulu and Kalimantan regions in Indonesia”.

The increase in external purchases was “primarily due to new third-party crop intake at the recently commissioned HPP Mill (North Sumatra) and Bengkulu region”.

Total production is up 7%, slightly lower than the 8% figure given at the previous trading update.

Development: the five-year target to develop 10,000 hectares is on track with 2,440 hectares replanted, and new planting on 221 hectares. As noted previously, a new mill is on track for completion in December 2026.

On the November floods: “conditions across the estate have now largely returned to normal and the flooding will not have a material impact on the Group's overall fruit production or financial performance.”

Comment by the Executive Director:

"We are delighted with the operational progress we have made during the course of the year.

As well as managed replanting, our objective, over time, is to sustainably lift yields through improved agronomic practices and tighter estate management, including the use of enhanced monitoring systems.

Our business has been supported by a strong pricing environment, giving us good cash flow, which provides a solid financial base to support future growth and deliver long-term shareholder value."

Graham’s view

With strong commodity prices (although your belief in that may have been rocked in recent days!), it’s been a very pleasant environment to own shares in the likes of AEP:

I note the StockRank of 97:

The usual warnings about foreign shares don’t really apply, as this has been listed for over 30 years and paid dozens of dividends.

One thing to be aware of is that the ownership situation is a little unusual, as I mentioned last time. The majority shareholder is Genton International, previously controlled by Lim Siew Kim, who passed away in 2022. So I think her heirs must control AEP now, but they don't seem to have any Board representation currently. Correction: Executive Director Marcus Chan Jau Chwen is the son of Madam Lim.

That's just something to take note of - it’s always useful to know if there’s a majority shareholder involved. But I’m happy to leave our GREEN stance unchanged today after another constructive update from the company.

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Roland's Section

Churchill China (LON:CHH)

Down 5% at 376p (£41m) - Full Year Trading Update 2025 - Roland - AMBER

(At the time of publication, Roland has a long position in CHH.)

The Company is pleased to confirm that trading in the second half of the year met its expectations, with turnover for the year at circa £76m and profit before tax expected to be in line with market expectations.

Shares in this leading supplier of crockery to the hospitality trade continued to drift lower after I took a neutral view in September. But it seems that investors in this fairly illiquid stock have been expecting more positive news – the share price had risen by nearly 20% year-to-date, ahead of today’s statement:

I think it’s interesting to note the StockRank has also been trending higher.

My position in this AIM stock is underwater, but I averaged down in December, so I am inevitably biased. Even so, I think today’s in line update is broadly positive and provides some hope that the run of earnings downgrades we saw last year may have bottomed out.

2025: key points

• H2 trading “met expectations”

• Full year trading in line with market expectations, with revenue of c.£76m and pre-tax profit expected to be £6m

• Year-end net cash of £10.8m (FY24: £10.1m)

Although Churchill cut its dividend last year, this was a prudent decision. The improved year-end net cash balance demonstrates how this has allowed management to protect its balance sheet while continuing to invest to support an eventual recovery.

Geographically, it seems trading was mixed:

• UK: “maintained market leader status” but end users were affected by weaker macro conditions. Run-in to Christmas was more positive with demand from pub groups. Year-end “order pipeline” (not necessarily the same as the order book) was ahead of the prior year;

• Europe: H2 improved relative to the same period in 2024. Year-end result “broadly in line” with 2024 (i.e. probably slightly below);

• USA: ended the year ahead of 2024 despite USD devaluation;

• Rest of World: weaker, as dependent on major projects which have been delayed.

Raw Materials: Churchill owns its own clay business which supplies raw materials for internal use and sells to external customers. Unfortunately, “a key UK customer” has decided to source its own materials directly going forward, so will no longer be buying from Churchill.

Management says that mitigating actions are expected to limit the impact on profitability, but I think this is a disappointment all the same. I’d be interested to know the reasons for this decision and the source of alternate supply – I can’t imagine there are all that many alternatives in the UK.

Outlook: no outlook comments were provided today and I don’t have access to any broker notes.

The lack of information means visibility is limited, but I think it is probably prudent to recognise the possibility of a downgrade to 2026 forecasts following these results. Today’s update might be a mild profit warning – unfortunately we may need to wait until the FY results are published (probably in April) to be sure.

Roland’s view

This family-controlled business has a long and respectable history as a market leader in the UK. Profitability has come under pressure since 2023 due to high energy costs and weaker demand.

My view is that demand will recover in line with normal cyclical patterns. However, I am concerned about the impact of high electricity costs on UK manufacturers and the impact this may have on their competitive positioning and profitability.

More broadly, I share the view of the StockRanks that this is a potential Contrarian stock, with high quality and value but weak (although improving) momentum:

Based on today’s year-end update, nearly a quarter of the market cap is covered by net cash. Churchill also trades at a significant discount to its tangible net asset value:

Ahead of today, 2026 forecasts were for a flat result versus 2025. Given the complete lack of outlook guidance today, I am going to retain our neutral view a little longer.

However, I would hope to be able to upgrade to AMBER/GREEN when the company’s final results are published and some forward-looking commentary is provided.

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XP Factory (LON:XPF)

Unch. at 14p (£24m) - Trading Update & Appointment of Non-Executive Chairman - Roland - BLACK (AMBER/RED =)

Commiserations to shareholders in this leisure group this morning – it’s a profit warning, with XP Factory now expected to report a full-year loss for the year ending 31 March 2026.

Hopefully this news won’t come as a complete surprise to DSMR readers – in December, Mark commented that XP Factory had “much to do to hit FY forecasts” and left our previous AMBER/RED view unchanged.

Key facts:

XP Factory operates under two brands, Escape Hunt and Boom Battle Bar. Escape Hunt is the more mature and profitable business. Today’s profit warning largely relates to Boom Battle Bar, which appears to be struggling to expand in a tough market for experiential leisure.

This update covers the 13 weeks to 28 December 2025. The bad news isn’t immediately obvious:

• Total revenue from owned and operated (O&O) sites +4.2%

• Year-to-date (9mo) adj EBITDA +2.1% to £4.8m (XPF’s financial year ends on 31 March)

• Net debt of £5.6m at 28 Dec 25 (28 Sept 25: £5.3m)

Escape Hunt trading is also reassuring:

• O&O revenue +10%, including 6.4% like-for-like (LFL) growth

• Site-level EBITDA margins of 43% year-to-date

• Three new sites opened and trading in line with expectations

Q3 is a peak period for trading (ahead of Christmas) and these results are better than the figures reported for the half year, when Escape Hunt generated 1.8% LFL growth at an average site-level EBITDA margin of 40.4%.

Boom Battle Bar - this is where the bad news starts:

• O&O revenue +2.5%, with -7.2% UK LFL decline

• Strong corporate bookings failed to offset a decline in consumer sales

• Site-level EBITDA margins of c.18% year-to–date

• Material labour cost increases haven’t been offset due to lower volumes

• £2m of annualised cost savings achieved to date

Sales performance seems to have worsened since H1, when Boom saw a -6.8% LFL sales decline. However, year-to-date site-level margins are ahead of the 12.8% reported for H1, suggesting that Q3 was significantly more profitable.

XP Factory says the wider UK experiential leisure sector saw LFL declines of 9% in calendar 2025 and believes that as a scale operator, Boom could benefit from eventual consolidation “consistent with prior experience” at Escape Hunt.

Outlook & Revised Guidance

Given the slower than expected Boom B2C performance over the key festive period which has continued into January, the Board now expects FY26 revenue and EBITDA to be below current market estimates with the Board expecting FY26 pre-IFRS16 adjusted EBITDA of between £5.0m and £6.0m.

XP Factory also warns that FY27 is now expected to be “a year of consolidation”, with site openings scaled back.

With thanks to broker Cavendish for updating today, we can see this translates into a big cut in expectations, even at an EBITDA level:

• FY26E adj EBITDA: £5.2m (-32% vs £7.7m previously)

• FY27E adj EBITDA: £5.2m (-47% vs £9.8m previously)

These cuts are bad enough, but the picture gets worse as you move down the income statement.

As we have commented before, we don’t believe adjusted EBITDA (which excludes finance costs and depreciation) is an appropriate measure for indebted businesses that have heavy depreciation charges – leisure venues like these need regular updating to stay fresh.

Cavendish forecasts for adjusted earnings show XP Factory is now expected to report an after-tax loss in both FY26 and FY27:

• FY26E adj EPS: -0.8p (prev. +0.6p)

• FY27E adj EPS: -0.8p (prev. +1.5p)

Chairman appointment: perhaps one cautiously encouraging piece of news today is the appointment of James van den Bergh as non-executive chairman. Mr van den Bergh is probably best known to many Stockopedia subscribers as the CEO of multibagging gaming stock Trufin (LON:TRU), whose main product is Balatro.

Whether van den Bergh’s skills in the virtual world will translate into bricks and mortar remains to be seen, but according to Cavendish he is expected to bring a focus on “disciplined capital allocation”.

Roland’s view

XP Factory was only marginally profitable prior to today’s profit warning, as we can see from the StockReport:

The cut to guidance today reverses the previously hoped for move into more meaningful profitability from FY27:

What could XP Factory be worth?

I don’t have much insight into this business, but based on the company’s expectation that it can be an eventual winner from consolidation in this sector, one approach might be to assume Boom Battle Bar can achieve the same level of profitability as the more mature Escape Hunt:

• In H1 26, Escape Hunt achieved a group-level adj EBITDA pre-IFRS16 margin of 28.3%

• Applying this to FY27 forecast revenue of £58m gives a figure of £16.3m

• £16.3m is more than 3x current FY27E forecast adj EBITDA of £5.2m

EBITDA of £16m would likely justify a market cap considerably above the c.£24m level seen this morning. So using this crude guesstimate, I think we might argue that XP Factory still has the potential to achieve meaningful profitability and justify a much higher valuation.

However, it now seems this is unlikely to happen before March 2027 at the earliest – and it’s possible that Boom Battle Bar just won’t be as popular as the escape room format.

The departure of the CFO appears to have been well timed, as Mark speculated. Shareholders should thank him for leaving the business in better shape than it was and for renewing and extending its finance facility on improved terms. However, I don’t see any reason to move from our AMBER/RED view today.

In my view, this is a speculative situation. While I don’t think there’s any immediate risk of distress, I’d want to know more about both the business model and the market landscape before forming a conviction about the recovery potential here.