Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 23 May 2025) - EPWN, TLY, GAW, AJB, AGR/PHP, BEG, TEK, SEA

Fri 5:59am by Roland Head

21 comments 4054 reads

Good morning!

The agenda is now complete.

Update 11.50: today's report is now complete. I hope you're able to enjoy the long weekend! The Daily Report will be back on Tuesday.

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Games Workshop (LON:GAW) (£5.2bn)	FY Trading Update	Expect FY25 rev of c.£610m, PBT at least £255m. Record licensing revenue, exp lower in FY26.	GREEN (Roland) Today’s update is ahead of previous expectations, as far as I can see. These are certainly exceptional figures from the Warhammer maker, only tempered slightly by a warning that licensing revenue is expected to be lower this year. Given the group’s exceptional quality and track record of outperformance, I’m going to maintain our positive view.
AJ Bell (LON:AJB) (£1.9bn)	Interim Results	Rev +17%, PBT up 12% to £68.8m. Customers +9%, AUA +5% to £90.4bn, £3.3bn net inflows. FY results to be ahead of previous expectations.	GREEN (Roland) I am staying positive on this well-run investment platform after today’s strong half-year results. Upgraded guidance for the full year highlights strong trading momentum and customer acquisition. Profitability remains excellent despite price cuts and the business is investing in its brand and offering to support continued market share gains. On a P/E of 20, I think the shares remain fairly priced on a longer-term view.
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.6bn)	Statement re. offer from PHP	Due diligence underway on improved Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) offer. A planned General Meeting to vote on the KKR offer has been adjourned.	PINK (Roland) [no section below] With two firm offers on the table for this healthcare REIT, a deal of some kind seems very likely to me. For shareholders, the weakness of the PHP offer is that it’s a cash/shares offer, whereas KKR’s 49.4p offer is all cash. At current prices, I estimate both offers are almost identical in terms of value (49.4p vs 49.6p). With AGR stock trading at book value (49.5p) and in line with the current value of both offers, investors may want to consider whether to lock in some gains or hold out in hope of a slightly better outcome.
Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG) (£157m)	FY Trading Update	Revenue, EBITDA, net cash ahead of exps. Rev +12%, adj PBT +7% to £23.5m.	AMBER (Roland) Today’s update is (slightly) ahead of expectations, but I don’t see much to change my view that this…

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Burnt Onions

Fri 6:53am

Inspecs (LON:SPEC) Yes watching this one closely, now the new Vietnam factory is completed I want to see how they allocate their capital, ideally they reduce their debt pile in a meaningful manner, obviously also there is the matter of tariffs and how that plays out but I agree eParo this could have legs especially from these levels....

eParo

Fri 7:11am

US President Donald Trump plans to sign orders to revitalize the nuclear energy sector, aiming to streamline regulatory processes and bolster the fuel supply chain. This initiative will invoke the Defence Production Act and promote the construction of new nuclear facilities with federal support.

https://www.livemint.com/news/...

Yellow Cake (LON:YCA) in demand this morning. ASX uranium stocks also taking off

jonno

Fri 7:16am

Avingtrans (LON:AVG) that has a US presence may also be a beneficiary.

TIBAR07

Fri 7:39am

Didn’t they report that they breached their bank facility covenants in March?

Not a great place to be so recently after agreeing them!

Fri 8:07am

Inspecs (LON:SPEC) - A German competitor has filed for insolvency:

https://www.ewintelligence.com...

Fri 8:19am

Looks like Harwood have purchased another chunk of PAYP.L

iwright7

Fri 8:22am

Also demand today for £NUCG (VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies ETF) which has had strong momentums since Trump's "Liberation Day". Its an ETF mainly exposed to Uranium Miners and Nuclear Infrastucture.

...NUCG ETF provides exposure to the global uranium and nuclear energy industry, including mining, engineering, reactor technology, and physical uranium assets. It is designed for investors seeking to benefit from the growth and development of nuclear energy as a key component of the global clean energy transition.

rmillaree

Fri 8:27am

Epwin (LON:EPWN)

Very very dependable plodder of a share here - mangement always seem to do decent job of delivering on promises (ie not over promising !!) - they may not have a huge moat ref what they sell (there may be too many players in their market?) - but i think there stuff is specialised enough that effectively they seem to own their space ref delivering reasonable outurn on sales.

organic growth is probably pretty non existent - there wil be busy and quiet time s- now is obviously semi quiet but ticking over - its good that they can still churn out profits when time sare quiet.

minor acquisitions share buybacks and new outlets and p/e of 8 and decent cashflow - should enable the company to hopefully grow its eps over the cycle - with 6% dividend yield while you wait.

Perhaps takeoever or merger candidate (eurocell to improve efficiencies would be very obvious choice?) at 25% premum might come along while we wait

Brilliant Leader

Fri 9:11am

Good morning Roland and thank you for a very decent write up on Games Workshop (LON:GAW) which is my largest individual holding. I have held shares in this company since 2017 and in that time broker forecasts have always been behind the curve, largely due to the company’s habit of under promising and over delivering which we have seen in action again today. I’ve lost count of the number of times a positive update is tempered by a cautionary note from the company.

You just have to look at the company’s financial growth to see the reality of the situation. What is perhaps more remarkable is that this growth is entirely organic. They don’t make acquisitions. The accounts are the cleanest you will ever see. They don’t make adjustments. Surplus cash is regularly returned to shareholders via dividends. They don’t engage in share buybacks.

In short, it is the best company I have ever owned and the best I am ever likely to own. The time will come when the current CEO moves on and at that point I will reassess my conviction.

Enjoy your weekend folks,
Simon

Monty Carlo

Fri 9:19am

As ever, it remains very challenging to try and ascertain what is, and what isn't, priced in to a share price.

Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)
Yes, many valid discussions yesterday & previously about organic vs. acquired growth, over-reliance on a single author, whether valuation is appropriate etc etc.

But none of this is new. If you look at the H2Radnor note (H2Radnor BMY 20/3/25) from back in March the gap between forecast "reported" & "adjusted" PBT of £41.5m vs £30.3m is very clear to see - the big step up in the amortisation of intangibles is broken out explicitly. The published results were indeed ahead of these forecasts, coming out at £42.1m and £32.5m.

If markets are remotely efficient (and I'm not sure they always are) then I would surmise that the share price drop must be a question of the outlook disappointing, but the share price move is quite large for a "broadly in line with current consensus" statement, especially given they had the helpful footnote.

So what to make of it? Do they need a better broker to get their earnings guidance into the market? Were investors hoping for 10 new SJ Maas titles to be launched next month? Or are we moving to a more American style of earnings season where the absence of an upgrade to expectations is in effect a downgrade? Or maybe it is just one of those things - the marginal buyers & sellers having an oversized impact in thin UK liquidity?

BT (LON:BT.A)
So to follow on from the above, BT supposedly missed expectations yesterday, and the shares were duly down on the day. Or were.

As I write this the shares are now trading 9.5% higher than yesterday's low point.

Go figure. I think it just reinforces how traders can still lose money even if they know what tomorrow's headlines are going to be.

My personal conclusion is not to trade around results, although I do read them. Those who sold out after the recent Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) profit warning must now be wondering whether following simplistic rules is really the way forward. Differentiating between a temporary blip and turning point is so, so difficult in real time, and so obvious in hindsight.

Fri 9:28am

Harwood are clearly reinvesting their profits from Argentex (LON:AGFX) !

Roland Head

Fri 9:49am

Morning Simon,

I agree with you re. CEO Kevin Rountree at Games Workshop (LON:GAW) - when he leaves, I suspect a lot of people may reassess their conviction! He has been an outstanding leader, from what I can tell.

Roland

jonestheinvestor

Fri 10:15am

Good news that at least it's not an attempt to drill for yet more gas and oil, nuclear is the generally seen as the most sensible mid-term option by both sides of the climate argument.

I have a small holding of Yellow Cake (LON:YCA), so that's also useful, and I think other countries will be following suit for various reasons.

Hopefully the attempt to grab Greenland isn't related to the push to nuclear, there's already a nuclear waste dump there courtesy of Project Iceworm. Given the partial truths of that administration they might think it's a great idea to dump more under the ice, spoiler alert it's most certainly not.

lemming1

Fri 10:45am

Or PayPoint (LON:PAY)

sharw

Fri 12:45pm

Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)

Yes, the discussion as to why such a large reaction to "broadly in line" continues.

There was a discussion on this yesterday by the 2 Pauls that you can view here.

I have re-viewed the Q&A from yesterday's presentation at https://sparklive.lseg.com/Blo...

There was a reminder that the bumper profit from SJM last year and (41m 54s in) the CEO reminds us that a good deal of this was the 15 previous books from her bought by people who read the latest and wanted more. I am no expert in 'social media' but am told that most of the first time purchasers resulted from discussion on her books "going viral". What that implies is that although the next SJM book will be a big hit there may not be so many buying previous books because they already have them and BMY revenue may disappoint investors as a result.

There are also comments on the state of the US academic market. 28m 41s in the CFO talks of budget pressures previously reported on small/midsize institutions now also seen on the large ones. 37m 47s in there is a question on the same theme and the reply is that it's tough out there.

Then there is the matter of acquisitions. In reply to the very last question (50m 11s) there is a weary 'we need some sleep' reply from the CFO saying that immediately after the last one she and Nigel received an email from the head of M&A detailing the next 10 targets.

Of course, buying these usually brings goodwill onto the balance sheet. When this is written off it is conveniently swept into the 'highlighted items' which are excluded from the headline figures. In the excluded items this year there was an increase in amortisation of intangibles for the non-consumer section from £4.5m last year to £8m this.

Finally I have seen no comment on an item buried in the report (between Dividend and Outlook) that is usually subject to a separate RNS - the resignation of the CFO. It is all very harmonious and she will stay on to hand over to the new one but is "to pursue a portfolio career" the main reason? Is it to get someone else in before the big change? (Nigel Newton will be 70 next month although he may go on much further like Buffett!).

sparkler

Fri 3:00pm

Yes, I was surprised about the lack of reaction to a changed CFO. This is rarely a positive development and especially when they haven't been in the job that long and are moving to pursue a "portfolio career" - whatever that may be?

snowdrop

Fri 3:48pm

This comment is under review

yiannos1

Fri 4:33pm

It’s Yiannos

You are too excited I guess!

Fri 4:40pm

Howard Adams

Fri 5:01pm

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 23 May 2025) - EPWN, TLY, GAW, AJB, AGR/PHP, BEG, TEK, SEA

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Roland Head

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