Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 25 July 2025) - MSLH, JUP, CBG, NWG, REC
Good morning. After a very busy week for company news, let's see what's in store today.
The agenda is now complete - it's relatively busy for a Friday.
Today's report is now complete - thank you for all your comments this week, have a great weekend!
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
Natwest (LON:NWG) (£44.7bn) | PBT up 18.4% to £3.6bn, with improved net interest margin and lower costs. Interim dividend +58% to 9.5p with £750m buyback in H2. FY25 guidance upgraded: RoTE now expected to be >16.5% (prev. 15-16%) | AMBER/GREEN (Roland) A strong Q2 has followed a good Q1 and provided support for a further upgrade to full-year guidance. While the shares aren’t as cheap as they were, NatWest seems to be trading well and does not look too expensive to me, assuming the current rate of profitability is sustainable. | |
Rightmove (LON:RMV) (£6.2bn) | Rev +10%, op profit +10% to £145.4m. Total membership +1%. 2025 guidance unchanged. | ||
Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB) (£1.7bn) | LFL sales +4.5% for 42wks YTD with improving trend. Outlook at top end of consensus exps. | ||
Law Debenture (LON:LWDB) (£1.3bn) | H1 NAV total return of 15.0%. IPS unit saw revenue +7.7% and PBT +7.5% to £28.2m. | ||
Firstgroup (LON:FGP) (£1.3bn) | Trading for YTD (Mar-Jul) in line with exps. Adj EPS to be flat or better in FY26. | ||
Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP) (£717m) | H1 AUM up 4% at £47.1bn. | AMBER/GREEN (Roland) A drop in revenue in H1 reflects unchanged management fee margin on lower average AUM. As a result, costs swallowed up 82% of revenue in H1, cutting profits (and the dividend) by more than a third. In isolation these results don’t seem great, but I think there’s some evidence of improving underlying performance, with net flows turning positive in Q2. These shares aren’t as cheap as they were, but continue to trade below book value with a solid balance sheet. The CCLA acquisition should add useful scale and help to improve cost ratios. I’m happy to leave our moderately positive view unchanged. | |
Marshalls (LON:MSLH) (£668m) | PW: rev +4% in H1, but activity has softer since May.
Management sees no sign of improvement in remainder of 2025. | BLACK (AMBER/RED) (Roland) I think Marshalls is a decent business, but it’s suffering from a fall in volumes and a switch to cheaper, commoditised products in its core landscaping division. A failure to reduce debt levels versus 2024 also suggests to me that leverage at the half-year mark may be higher than the 1.8x multiple reported in H1 24. After three profit warnings we could be close to a low point. But until housing demand improves I suspect performance will remain under pressure, so I’m going to take a cautious view for now. | |
Close Brothers (LON:CBG) (£619m) | Selling brokerage unit Winterflood for £103.9m. Should improve CET1 by 0.3% to 14.3%. | AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below] Close Brothers is continuing to sell non-core assets as it raises cash to fund potential liabilities estimated at £165m, relating to historic motor finance commissions. My impression is that Winterflood (a City broker with a small-cap specialism) is highly regarded by its institutional clients. However, profits are highly cyclical and the business is prone to periods when it’s loss making. For example, H1 saw a loss of £0.8m, but the third quarter saw a £0.4m operating profit. The previous disposal of Close’s asset management division may also mean that historic synergies have been lost. Close’s balance sheet has always looked relatively strong to us, as Graham discussed here. This disposal will provide further support for the bank’s CET1 ratio and leave it positioned to focus on its core role as a specialist lender. I see plenty of value here but remain somewhat cautious about regulatory risks and the potential for a broader drag from the motor finance issue. | |
Smarter Web (OFEX:SWC) (£576m) | LBT of £0.7m for 6mo to 30 April 2025. At 24/07/25, SWC had £1m cash and 1,825 bitcoin (c.£160m) | ||
Taylor Maritime (LON:TMI) (£220m) | FY25 NAVps -24.7% to $1.114. Total NAV return -16.6% due to softer market. Demand outlook “modest”. | ||
John Wood (LON:WG.) (£128m) (suspended) | Sold 50% interest in RWG (turbine repair) for $135m. Proceeds will be used to reduce debt. | PINK | |
Record (LON:REC) (£126m) | SP -5% AUM +7% to $107.9bn, net flows neutral. Average fee rates “broadly unchanged from previous quarter”. Performance fees £0.4m (Q1 25: £1.6m), albeit last year was considered exceptional. Outlook unchanged: "revenue growth in low single digits and EPS flat" | AMBER/GREEN (Roland holds) [no section below] As a shareholder, I’m a little disappointed by today’s update and am not surprised Record’s share price has dipped. While I recognise the company’s business is inherently lumpy when it comes to winning new asset mandates, management’s warning that achieving FY26 guidance will depend on closing a pipeline of “large, complex deals” suggests to me that there is some scope for a shortfall. This is especially true, in my view, as I assume of this pipeline relates to areas being targeted for growth, outside Record’s core currency hedging business. These concerns aside, I continue to like this business for reasons Graham discussed in June - it is highly profitable, a respected niche expert in currency risk management and has a very strong balance sheet. Dividends have always been generous without risking financial strength. To reflect my mixed views (and the falling StockRank), I’ve moderated our rating slightly today. | |
GreenX Metals (LON:GRX) (£107m) | Historic core logging analysis of Tannenberg copper project. £252m arbitration award is being contested. | ||
Venture Life (LON:VLG) (£72m) | Continuing rev +38% to £15.3m in H1 w/ net cash of £36m. FY25 result to be in line with exps. | ||
Helix Exploration (LON:HEX) (£46m) | Inez #1 wireline logging complete, 140ft reservoir identified. Flow testing to commence early Aug 25. | ||
Metals One (LON:MET1) (£31m) | Agreed to acquire 75% of two US companies from Thor Energy (LON:THR) for cash & shares totalling £1.1m. | ||
FIH (LON:FIH) (£24m) | Rev -22% due to construction disruption. Pre-tax loss of £6.2m. Dividend held at 6.75pps. |
Roland's Section
Marshalls (LON:MSLH)
Down 21% to 207p (£524m) - Trading Update - Roland - BLACK (AMBER/RED)
After tentative signs of a recovery earlier this year, it looks like conditions have weakened again at this building materials business. Today’s half-year update includes a material profit warning for full-year 2025.
H1 trading: group revenue rose by 4% to £319m during the first half of the year, driven by a mix of volume growth and weaker pricing. This seems consistent with previous trading updates in March and May, suggesting that the improving trend Graham noted in March may have continued until recently.
H2 outlook: However, the company says that activity levels have softened since the end of May. Management currently expects “no improvement in market activity levels through the remainder of 2025”.
FY25 profit guidance: as a result of this revised outlook, Marshalls has cut its profit guidance for the full year 2025:
FY25 adjusted pre-tax profit is now expected to be between £42m and £46m
Consensus earnings forecasts prior to today were for FY25 EPS of around 16p per share, broadly flat on 2024. So I’d assume that pre-tax profit expectations were also similar to last year’s figure of £52m.
On this basis, today’s updated guidance represents a cut of c.15% at the mid-point. However, this morning’s share price fall of over 20% suggests the market may be pricing in a result towards the lower end of this range:
What’s gone wrong?
From what I can tell, the main cause of today’s downgrade is the group’s landscaping business, which generated 42% of H1 revenue. Contrary to what the name might suggest, this division manufactures and supplies paving, kerbstones and other manufactured products for the built environment.
Landscaping: divisional revenue only fell by 1% to £135m in H1, compared to a decline of 11% in the first half of 2024. The company says it had seen positive engagement with customers, leading to volume gains and improvements in market share.
However, it seems any improvement in volume was insufficient to offset previous losses and weaker pricing power. The company highlights several issues in today’s update that have led to reduced profitability:
“Structural overcapacity in the UK supply chain continuing to exert downward pressure on prices”
“Increased value engineering in construction projects”, with customers switching to basic commodity items rather than higher-margin products
“Underutilisation of our manufacturing network”
Price cuts to win market share
To offset these pressures, the company is scaling back its manufacturing network. A partial site closure in H1 will give annualised savings of £3m, while further actions are now planned to increase annualised savings to c.£9m.
No detail is provided on divisional profit today. But I suspect that the dual impact of lower prices and negative operating leverage from manufacturing means that landscaping profits have fallen very sharply indeed this year.
Other divisions: the company’s Building Products and Roofing Products division traded more strongly in H1, with revenue up by 5% and 11% respectively. Performance in roofing is being aided by the continued growth of Viridian Solar, which Marshalls acquired in 2021.
Balance sheet & Debt: net debt rose by £18m to £152m at 30 June, compared to December 2024. The company says this is due to seasonal working capital movements and a final £6.6m payment due to the sellers of Viridian Solar.
The seasonality argument seems reasonable given that net debt is now broadly unchanged from the same time one year ago. However, the prospect of lower profits this year suggests to me that leverage is likely to have increased from the 1.8x figure reported in August 2024.
Roland’s view
The analyst consensus chart on the StockReport tells us that this is the third time the company has cut its guidance for 2025:
Stock market wisdom is that profit warnings come in threes. Our research has found that this isn’t always strictly accurate, but it is true that companies often underperform for an extended period of time after an initial warning.
I can certainly see the case for arguing that Marshalls’ profits are probably close to a cyclical low.
However, I’m a little concerned by the bleakness of today’s outlook and the possibility of rising leverage. The company has previously said that new housing and housing RMI (repairs/improvements) make up around 70% of group revenue. While this sector remains subdued, I suspect Marshalls will also remain under pressure.
The shares were trading on a FY25 forward P/E of 16 prior to today’s warning. My guess is that this ratio will be very similar when the share price drop and cut to earnings guidance are netted out.
On balance, I’m not convinced this business is looking truly cheap just yet, so I’m going to downgrade our view one notch to AMBER/RED today.
Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP)
Down 4% to 129p (£687m) - Half-Year Report - Roland - AMBER/GREEN
At first glance, Jupiter’s half-year results seem to give with one hand and take with the other. While flows improved in H1, profits fell sharply. However, having reviewed today's results I'm inclined to remain relatively optimistic.
Positive AUM performance
The good news is that assets under management (AUM) rose by 4% to £47.1m during the first half of the year, relative to December 2024. After adjusting for a net outflow of £0.2bn, the implied market performance is about 4.4%.
For contrast, the FTSE All-Share index rose by 6.8% over this period, while the S&P 500 gained 5.5%.
Against this backdrop Jupiter’s H1 investment performance doesn’t seem outstanding to me. However, the company says 64% of its AUM has outperformed its peer group median over the last three years, up from 61% at the end of 2024.
Perhaps a more significant factor is that flows turned positive during the second quarter:
H1 net outflow: £0.2bn
Q1 net outflow: £0.5bn
Q2 net inflow: £0.3bn
Interestingly, flows were positive from institutional clients (+£1.6bn) but negative from retail/wholesale channels (-£1.8bn). My reading of this is that self-directed investors are continuing to find cheap index trackers, gold and crypto more exciting than mutual funds which may be underperforming all of those assets.
Ultimately, I imagine the real catalyst for inflows would be if fund managers like Jupiter can point to flagship funds that are outperforming the wider market. I’m not convinced that’s the case just yet, although I think the picture is probably improving.
Profit slump
The bad news is that improving flows and investment performance did not translate into stronger financial results. Here are the main headlines numbers:
Net revenue down 11.4% to £153.9m
Adjusted pre-tax profit down 36.5% to £30.4m
Reported pre-tax profit down 28.9% to £27.5m
Adjusted earnings down 36% to 4.2p per share
Interim dividend down 34% to 2.1p per share
The fall in revenue reflects a sharp drop in management fees:
There are two reasons for this:
H1 25 average AUM was £45.7bn (H1 24: £52.1bn)
Net fee margin was flat at 0.66%, but management says this was below expectations due to mix and a weighting to institutional flows (presumably lower fees)
Well-paid staff appear to be another reason for the drop in profits. Compensation costs as a percentage of revenue rose to 50% during the half year (H1 24: 46%).
In total, costs accounted for 82% of revenue during the half year (H1 24: 76%).
As these numbers show, fund managers have relatively high fixed costs. The resulting negative operating leverage explains why the fall in profits was much greater than the fall in revenue for the half year.
Of course, if flows strengthen and market movements remain positive, then this leverage could turn positive, potentially putting a rocket under profits.
There's no guarantee of when -- or if -- this will happen.
In the meantime, shareholders face a dividend cut, as Jupiter maintains its sensible policy of paying out 50% of earnings.
Outlook
CEO Matthew Beesley is doing a reasonable job in my view and strikes a positive note about the remainder of the year:
With a marked recovery in client sentiment across both channels, improving investment performance across all time periods and the strongest investment line-up we have ever had, there are good reasons to be optimistic that we can continue to build on this momentum going forward.
There’s no formal guidance in today’s results, so I assume consensus expectations for the year will remain broadly unchanged. After a strong run recently, these price Jupiter on a FY25E P/E of 15 after this morning’s drop.
Consensus estimates have been quite volatile recently, however, so the trend chart may be worth watching for further updates over the coming days:
Note that analysts are not pricing in a recovery in any earnings growth in 2026.
Roland’s view
Beesley also reminds investors that the ongoing acquisition of non-profit specialist CCLA will make a significant addition to AUM when completed – CCLA is said to have more than £15bn under management, although my sums suggest fee margins may be somewhat lower than those of Jupiter.
Even so, CCLA is expected to help Jupiter achieve economies of scale. That may help the company hit its target of reducing costs to 70% of revenue.
By way of illustration, applying this cost ratio to today's half-year results would have increased pre-tax profit by c.65% to around £46m. If Jupiter can grow AUM and keep costs stable, then operating leverage could drive very rapid profit growth.
Whether this can be achieved remains uncertain, but that is certainly the bull case for investing in unloved fund managers.
In Jupiter's case, I think it's fair to say the shares could still offer value at current levels, even after recent gains:
While the timing of a fuller recovery remains uncertain, fortunately Jupiter’s balance sheet continues to look strong. These half-year results show £195m of cash and net assets of £841m. In my view, the company can afford to do the right things and remain patient in pursuit of a recovery -- potentially a big advantage.
Graham was AMBER/GREEN on Jupiter in April and July. I’m going to leave that view unchanged today. While I’m probably slightly less positive than he is, I believe there is still plenty of latent upside here if Jupiter can improve its flows and keep its costs under control.
Natwest (LON:NWG)
Up 2.5% to 516p (£41.8bn) - Half-Year Report - Roland - AMBER/GREEN
Today’s half-year results contain a modest upgrade to full-year guidance and reveal a substantial increase to shareholder returns from this high street bank. This positive update follows on from a strong Q1 update, which I covered here in May.
H1 results: income (revenue) for the half year rose by 11.9% to £8.0bn, supporting a 19.5% increase in net profit to £2.7bn. Adjusted earnings rose by 28% to 30.9p per share.
Dividend & Buyback: NatWest’s interim dividend has been increased by 58% to 9.5p per share. The bank has also announced a new £750m share buyback today.
Improved profitability: this H1 growth was driven by an increase in interest-earning assets (i.e. loans & mortgages), which rose by 3.4% to £542bn. Profitability on these loans also improved, with the bank’s net interest margin climbing 21 basis points to 2.28% (H1 24: 2.07%).
The end result was that the bank’s return on tangible equity (RoTE) for the half year rose to 18.1% (H1 24: 16.4%). As was the case in Q1, this was comfortably ahead of the bank’s previous guidance range for the year of 15%-16%.
Upgraded outlook: in my review in May, I speculated that this previous guidance implied the remainder of the year might be less profitable, on an RoTE basis.
That could still be the case, but CEO Paul Thwaites has now upgraded his full-year guidance, suggesting he does not expect too much of a slowdown in H2:
RoTE now expected to be greater than 16.5% (prev. 15-16%)
Income (revenue) excluding notable items to be greater than £16bn (prev. £15.2-15.7bn)
It’s interesting to note that consensus forecasts were already trending ahead of this previous guidance. Prior to today, the StockReport was showing consensus revenue of £15,995m for 2025, for example.
This may help explain the modest increase in share price today – some of this strong Q2 has already been priced in.
Roland’s view
Today’s positive update is reflected in the StockReport’s analysts consensus chart, which has been trending steadily higher for the last 18 months:
The mood music from the UK economy remains poor but NatWest’s performance (and that of Lloyds earlier this week) still seems pretty healthy.
However, today’s guidance still implies that the second half of the year is likely to be less profitable than the first half for NatWest.
Bad debt also rose during the half year. Today’s results show a loan impairment rate of 0.19%, compared to just 0.03% during the first half of 2024. This translated into impairment losses of £382m, nearly eight times the £48m reported during the same period last year.
Today’s guidance for a full-year impairment rate of under 0.2% is unchanged. It’s fair to say this level of bad debt is still very low. However, I think this is still a metric worth monitoring for any clues it may provide about the health of this mainstream lender’s customers.
Valuation: NatWest shares have doubled over the last two years and now trade at a 46% premium to their H1 tangible net asset value of 351p.
The stock is clearly not as cheap as it was and the premium to NTAV means there is perhaps less of a safety margin. However, NatWest’s double-digit returns on equity and forecast dividend yield of 5.8% suggest to me that the overall valuation remains reasonable here, assuming earnings remain stable.
I remain broadly positive on the valuation and outlook here and am comfortable leaving my previous AMBER/GREEN view unchanged today.
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30 comments
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Half of me wants to buy the momentum and the other half wants to take profits and relax on the sidelines!
Hi Acorn,
It's a tricky one isn't it - the opportunity cost of taking some risk off the table versus perhaps feeling a little more comfortable if the market falls, plus having cash that can then be put to work on any opportunities that might arise.
I went for your second option in May this year, after the rebound in markets, and took some profits so that I am now sitting about 65% cash, watching new highs being put in across the markets and thinking I went to early! Now where did I put that crystal ball I had......
That said I am still making money, albeit in smaller figures, on what has remained invested and the cash in my SIPP and ISA is receiving some interest in the meantime.
My thinking is that the brunt of the pain from Trump's tariffs has yet to be really felt and may play out a bit in the next couple of quarters, perhaps increasing inflation leading to a slow down hitting company earnings. Quite a few companies have already been reporting things slowing down and the number of significant discounts I am receiving in my inbox everyday suggests to me that some companies at least are trying hard to keep sales coming through and are willing to take a bit of a hit to do so. which again hits margins.
Other companies are reporting it difficult to fully pass on the NI and wage increases which again, in my own simplistic way, leads me to believe that earnings will come under pressure from this angle also.
Add to this friends and relatives, as well as myself, bemoaning how expensive everything has become and how they are baulking at paying some prices - not because they can't afford to but because they are just not willing to. My other half was looking at where to go for lunch with a friend recently and some of the local hostelries were offering prawn cocktail starters for £16.50 and a goats cheese salad for £23 - and she said to me I'm just not going to pay these prices.
All of which made me decide not to try and time the market but simply to take some risk off the table so that I felt comfortable in the event that there is a pullback, or a slowdown, especially as I can't really see any major catalysts to sustain the remarkable rally we have seen since April. Why do I need to take the risk?
Only my opinion, and I imagine others will have a perfectly valid and well argued view in the opposite direction. That's what makes markets. But one of the advantages we private investors have over funds that are required to be 100% invested is that we don't have to be when it doesn't feel right to us.
Best to everyone and to the team here at Stockopedia who do an amazing job everyday. How you get through the volumes of companies in such a balanced and informative way never ceases to amaze me.
Richard
Thanks Richard. What you write makes complete sense.
Just for fun I'll illustrate my quandry in more detail... Either I can be in cash and earn a bit over 4% with no risk to my capital, or I can invest in say a fund manager and earn 8-10% dividend yield and know that they are still quite cheap but vulnerable to a general market selloff. My greedy brain says go for the latter and think long term, my fearful brain says go for the former as you can always buy back in. Round and round and so the internal (and eternal) debate continues!
Have a great weekend all.
Maybe split it Acorn 60% in equities, 5% gold ETF like I Shares Physical Gold and 35% in Premier Money Market yielding tad over 5%.
That's my current set up, Gold might be near all time highs but its a hedge against inflation/more money printing. The 60% is invested currentl in blue chip large caps and major indicie ETF's and Investment Trusts.
I'm not looking to hit the ball out of the park ideally if I can get 6/7% after costs per annum on average I'm happy.
I like the idea of having a third in reserve for events like last April, I generally top up holdings on a 10% drop and add on further 20%/30% etc.
The beauty of ETF'S for major indicies is you don't have to worry about waking up one morning and finding them down on a 30% profit warning and they are safer to average down into than individual stocks, plus no stamp duty.
The flip side is they aren't going to pop up 10-15% one morning either like ITV did yesterday but I can live with that.
I'm gradually getting my whole portfolio structured across 20 different asset class ETF'S Europe 600, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, Physical Gold, S&P 500 etc plus 35% near cash with a view to then leaving it alone and just rebalancing two times per year.
This will leave me time to do other stuff, I work in the industry and meet lots of fund managers many times per month, I put about 20 hours per week into research but have struggled to grind out any really good returns over the years.
I've backtested the final ETF/Investment Trust portfolio I'm after and its done tad over 10% per annum so if I could get anywhere near that for the next 10-15 years for hopefully checking in two times per annum I will be delighted.
I also will pay attention on any future 10%/20% general market pull backs to deploy part of the cash pile.
Its a strange one as I say despite putting myself in the top 1-5% of investors for knowledge in the UK I've never been able to do it full time for a living as my results just aren't good enough.
The problem is I love the community feel and researching stuff if I had put the same 20 hours per week into anything else over the last two decades I reckon I would have been world class in that subject.
Guess for most of us its like a drug even if we aren't that great at it,
Have a good weekend all and enjoy the weather the next 5 weeks of summer will be gone in a flash no doubt.
Regards
Andy
You and me both fella!
Thank you for reinforcing my own bias. The cost of eating out is no longer a pleasure but a current account cash flow hit.
Ordered a steak/fish etc in a posh chain and said the price was per 100g. Ok I said what does that look like - he did not know and neither did I - I don't want to eat a whale, just a nice bit of protein. Then states we only do 300g - ok.
Can't walk out with two guests so swallow but £280 for a nice meal but seriously would not be surprised to see a closed door soon. So sad - nice food, nice experience but sorry too much money for the average Joe.
Canary Wharf - a nice area where they suddenly decided to drop the illegal immigrant bomb. I will eat my meals in Mauritius very soon.
Sounds like you should sell half your positions.
Thanks to the team for some great analysis during this busy week.
I'm wondering if a market top is in sight; it usually is when USA retail investors pile in, often using borrowed money.
The Crypto market size is now variously estimated at $2 trillion to $5 trillion. There may be some substance in it, but surely nothing like that. When it blows.....OMG.
Its always hard / impossible to predict what event will prick the bubble.
Crypto seems to be an obvious fraud. Marketed as a scarce item that has to be mined. When in reality it is a piece of code that can be copied infinitely at the press of a button. An example of the greater fool theory, it needs new investors to believe the con for the con to continue.
Crypto seems to be an obvious fraud. Marketed as a scarce item that has to be mined. When in reality it is a piece of code that can be copied infinitely at the press of a button
While I share the doubts about the real scarcity and underlying value, most crypto cannot simply be copied and shared. That's the point of a blockchain, which records the ultimate ownership of any given "coin". Of course, if you're foolish enough to accept crypto in payment for goods or services before the blockchain is updated you do run the risk of someone else assuming ownership of it, aka the "double spend" problem.
As BTC proof of work takes about 10 minutes to add any given transaction to the blockchain it's not suitable for retail transactions. Small crypto networks may be susceptable to attacks by someone taking over 51% of the network, but that's not really feasible with BTC.
timarr
Individual coins are individual. But isn't it the case that there is no limit on the number of types coins that can be created. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether etc. and therefore the total number of coins is unlimited.
Individual coins are individual. But isn't it the case that there is no limit on the number of types coins that can be created. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether etc. and therefore the total number of coins is unlimited.
Bitcoin has a fixed and finite supply, Ethereum does not. The mining processes to create these are essentially the same cryptographically intensive processes that are used for validating transactions.
Attackers generally focus on stealing existing coins via the same methods they use to hack other systems, rather than trying to figure out how to break the cryptographic processes underpinning the algorithms, which are the same algorithms that protect nearly everything we do online.
Some day, maybe, quantum cryptography will undermine those security processes. But not yet, at least.
While it's a very broad generalisation, any crypto that's being supported by the major financial service providers can be regarded as cryptographically sound. Where those coins are stored is potentially the weak point.
None of this makes crypto a sound investment, of course, but BTC has been just about the best performing "asset" in the last decade, so I don't completely disregard it, just as I think gold occasionally has a place in my portfolio.
timarr
The threat of quantum computing also needs to be considered in terms of whether it could be deployed to aid a "51% attack", rather than just whether it can threaten the encryption protocols.
None of this makes crypto a sound investment, of course, but BTC has been just about the best performing "asset" in the last decade, so I don't completely disregard it, just as I think gold occasionally has a place in my portfolio.
I share this view timarr and currently own some gold in my portfolio, primarily as protection against the actions and possible direction of travel being instigated by the Trump administration. I hold this via an ETC in my ISA and SIPP. Unfortunately, the FCA prohibit me from owning BTC via an ETF or ETC which I continue to regard as scandalous.
It is also one of the reasons why so many people are piling into these Bitcoin Treasury companies at ridiculous premiums to their net asset value. Now that is a bubble which is certain to burst - as for Bitcoin itself, I’m not so sure, especially during Trump’s tenure.
A good weekend to all and while I’m on here, well done to Graham, Roland et al for yet another sterling effort this week.
Best Regards
Simon
Brilliant L
“Unfortunately, the FCA prohibit me from owning BTC via an ETF or ETC which I continue to regard as scandalous.”
Totally agree, though I believe the situation is under review.
As an alternative I’ve had some success with VanEck Crypto and Blckchn Innvtrs UCITS ETF USD A (LON:DAGB.)
“The VanEck Crypto and Blockchain Innovators UCITS ETF offers exposure to a global set of companies leveraging blockchain technology across financial and other sectors.
Gain exposure to the long-term potential of blockchain technology through a UCITS ETF structure, while considering the sector’s volatility and evolving nature.
The ETF provides exposure to a range of companies including digital asset platforms, blockchain infrastructure providers, and crypto mining operations.
Reflecting blockchain’s dynamic growth, the ETF’s tracked index is systematically reviewed every quarter to ensure continued thematic relevance.”
A bit volatile and may be nearing a reversal.
Thanks Jim, I hold ARK Innovation UCITS ETF USD Acc (LON:ARCK) for a more diversified view of disruptive technologies, although the UK version cannot hold BTC or other cryptos directly but it does hold companies like Coinbase Global (NSQ:COIN).
Again, it might be towards the top of a mini cycle at the moment - looking a bit frothy short term.
Institutions are developing 'stable coin' - join the party as Mr Marr suggests, but the tulip bubble is history, this is bigger and smarter on a different planet. Too big for my brain. Stick to Nano Nuclear Energy (NAQ:NNE) - well maybe - needs power to supply these energy devouring chip monsters - to support your youth in developing his/her CV - and eventually eating their career.
The big problem with crypto, at least for me, is that it's impossible to even begin to figure out what kind of intrinsic value it might have.
As imperfect as it may be, with companies you at least have the concept of an earnings yield. Even commodities and housing have at least some basis for someone to have a stab at valuing them. But with crypto?
Nassim Taleb said that he thought that crypto wouldn't necessarily crash, but simply fade out of existence.
Crypto is useless as a medium of exchange. It takes too long the authenticate a transaction. Compare that with a credit card, where the transaction can be verified almost immediately.
Plus there's no arbitration in cases where transactions are disputed. Oh.
I'm not sure how authentication works, but it's something along the lines of voting. Yes, voting. So, if you want to pay for a Starbuck soy latte fapaccino with bitcoin, the parties themselves don't verify the transaction, others do. So these "other parties" chunter away on the blockchain to verify that you own the currency. The validity of it is determined by majority vote, if I understand correctly.
So, you or I could set up in the business of blockchain verification.
I'm not sure what safeguards are in place to ensure that hostile agents don't act in concert and either verify bogus transactions or invalidate legitimate transactions. I think at the moment it relies on the sheer volume of independent verifiers.
I may have some of this wrong. I welcome anyone with more technical knowledge than me piping up.
It's an asset with no value other than what someone else wants to pay for it. Simples.
Gold - now there is a thing. Your wife can wear and enjoy it and put a smile on her face.
Silver - there is its problem - cheap husband.
Platinum - better than the above but looks like silver - cheap husband.
There are those that have nice designs but plated - er divorce is more expensive than buying the real thing.
The only downside is the obvious criminals - anything delivered to your house will be targeted - personal experience.
Funny how the sellers of BTC are happy to accept fiat!.
Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP) was up a little in early trading, but now down.
Net inflows in Q2. One swallow does not make a summer, I fear.
Revenues are down. Dividends are down, too.
"Jupiter has delivered a strong start to 2025," a somewhat arguable statement given the actual numbers.
"Momentum in the institutional channel is strong", but is it though?
Maybe I'm just being too negative, but the constant downward drip drip drip in asset management is relentless.
The malaise in UK markets and the rise of passive investing continues to put pressure on these companies. JUP has a StockRank of 99, but I'm not sure I'm convinced that rating is justified. I feel that we're bottom-fishing, with all the attendant risks.
This time next year, Rodders.
Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP) the bottom fishing was to be had when the price was 69p!! Now there are green shoots visible, but I agree the management have put the best gloss on it!
Jupiter doesn't actually look that cheap, certainly not a simple PE measure. Maybe missing something, but can't see the appeal after its recent strong run.
The new (lower) pricing model, announced in Q3 2023, is on full display in these results!
Where is everyone? Holiday? Long, languid lie in?
Pleased to see International Public Partnerships (LON:INPP), one of my Steady Eddie holdings, bring its dividend payments in line with similar funds by announcing that it is moving from half yearly to quarterly payments.
It’s a Friday and the sun is shining, Pimlico. The golf course beckons.
Maybe some lucky punters are having a lie-in after their holdings in ITV (LON:ITV) - Wickes and BT / VOD soared yesterday
Well maybe i would be if I hadn't bought ITV many moons ago at over £1.50. It is a long wait and will be a lot longer before it edges back to those heights.
I bought ITV (LON:ITV) a couple of years ago and learnt my lesson regards falling-knives when I felt "it can't go any lower".
I used yesterday's spike to offload the last of my holdings - I am wary of the story thats its studios are the golden goose and will be sold off at some point. This would then leave a declining TV station heavily reliant on advertising which is diminishing revenue.
No doubt this will be the week when they announce a TO and the price rockets!!