Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 22nd April 2026) - CER, LIO, RKT, TPX, QTX, PINE, SHOE, TENG

Good morning!

The FTSE is set to open lower this morning, below 10,500, after weakness yesterday afternoon.

The US-Iran ceasefire has been extended, but not in a very meaningful way:

• The two sides never met for face-to-face talks in Islamabad, with Iran stating that US demands were unreasonable.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
• The US blockade remains in force.

So why is the ceasefire still in place? Apparently because the government of Pakistan, which is mediating, asked Trump to hold off on fresh strikes. Brent crude is now at $98.

Live webinar on Thursday at 5pm: with results season over, Ed and I will be taking a fresh look at our favourite investment ideas tomorrow evening. Here's the registration link.

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Wrapping it up there, thank you.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Graham's Section

Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO)

Up 1% at 272p (£168m) - Trading Statement - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =

There’s zero surprise to read of more outflows here:

• Net outflows in the quarter of £0.8bn

• AUMA falls from £21.5bn to £19.6bn

On the bright side, £2.6bn of AUMU is set to come in from the acquisition of River Global (LON:RVRG), and there are £500m of institutional mandates that have been awarded but not yet funded.

But with the persistent stream of outflows, these positives are swimming against the tide.

CEO comment:

"Liontrust is benefiting from investor diversification away from US equities and increasing demand from clients for active management, led by strong performance across our European strategies…

This more positive outlook for flows reflects the expansion of Liontrust's international distribution. We are extending our reach in the Middle East and Asia and have continued to make further progress in Europe…

As Liontrust enters the new financial year, we are well positioned to drive organic growth, realise benefits from the proposed acquisition and take advantage of the increased demand for active management."

Performance: they mention eight funds that have performed in the first or second quartile over 1 and 3 years. But I count 56 funds in their fund table. My general impression is that performance has not been very good. Which naturally makes it difficult to attract flows!

Graham’s view

Being AMBER/GREEN on this has been a mistake, as I’ve naively thought that it offered some value for some time:

But the share price has been in long-term decline:

Could it be making a low here?

If we compare the very latest AUMA figure (£20.8bn, 20th April 2026) with the current market cap, there are now £124 of AUMA for every £1 spent on Liontrust shares at the current level.

That’s actually less cheap than it was in January, when I last looked at the company.

AUMA will get a further boost from the acquisition of River Global, which should complete in a few months.

So I’m still sitting in the camp which says that the shares might offer some value here, and that they could have hit a bottom.

My cautious optimism has been wrong so far. But other UK fund managers are now seeing some inflows. Perhaps Liontrust can at least hope to see flows reach a breakeven point at some point this year?

It’s not my top pick in the fund management space, but profits are profits. Liontrust is still expected to see a solid profit margin this year, with the high forecast dividend yield (7%) easily covered by earnings per share. I find it very difficult to be negative on a stock offering this sort of value.

The StockRanks agree, accurately describing it as a Contrarian play.

If fund performance remains poor, and if outflows persist even when most other fund managers have recovered, the outcome should in the end be a takeover from a larger group. There should always a “buyer of last resort” for a business like this.

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Roland's Section

Cerillion (LON:CER)

Down 6% at 1,347p (£398m) - H1 Trading Update - Roland - AMBER =

Cerillion plc, the billing, charging and customer relationship management software solutions provider, announces an update on trading for the first six months of its current financial year ending 30 September 2026.

This is an in-line update and there are no changes to broker forecasts this morning for Cerillion. But the market reaction suggests a more sceptical view of today’s guidance, which includes a very heavy H2 profit weighting.

Cerillion leads today’s half-year update with news of its largest contract to date, a five-year deal with Omantel with an expected value of c.£42.5m. This was previously announced in January, but it’s the clear highlight in a half year that is expected to see revenue and profit fall sharply relative to the same period last year:

• H1 26 revenue down 14% at c.£18m (H1 25: £20.9m);

• H1 26 EBITDA down 37% at c.£6.2m (H1 25: £9.9m).

Outlook: management is guiding for full year results “to be strongly weighted to the second half”. A strong order book (value unspecified) is “anticipated” to unwind during the latter part of the year, supporting a stronger revenue performance.

As far as I can see, the main basis for this guidance is that the Omantel deal will drive significant revenue recognition in H2, including an initial licence fee.

We are also told that new orders during H1 were £39.6m, double the result achieved during the same period last year. This mainly reflects the Omantel win, so may not be a sustainable rate of new business.

The company says that the H2 weighting is “like last year”, but I think this is stretching a point:

• Cerillion’s 2025 results carried an H2 weighting of 54% (revenue) and 57% (adj EBITDA);

• Today’s guidance implies an H2 weighting of 67% (revenue) and 74% (adj EBITDA).

I should emphasise that broker forecasts from both Cavendish and house broker Panmure Liberum are unchanged today, so this is not a stealth profit warning.

However, commentary from both brokers highlights the lumpy nature of progress here, describing it as characteristic but perhaps uncomfortable for investors who are unfamiliar with the business!

A look at past performance certainly suggests this level of H2 weighting is unprecedented in recent years:

Roland’s view

As we always say in these circumstances, it’s possible that Cerillion will deliver H2-weighted results and meet full-year guidance.

However, when we see an unusual weighting of profit to the second half of the year like this, we often find there’s an increased chance of a profit warning later in the year.

In this case, broker forecasts have edged lower over the last 18 months, but have been fairly stable:

While I continue to admire Cerillion’s long-term growth and super quality metrics:

… I am mindful that earnings growth has slowed considerably in recent years:

The shares are not obviously cheap, either:

The StockRanks style Cerillion as a Falling Star and suggest caution on value:

I’ve previously noted the complex and lumpy accounting of Cerillion’s multi-year contracts and recognise that this is not necessarily an issue.

Given the strong quality metrics, I could get on board with a forward P/E of 20+ if I was confident about earnings growth.

However, I think the company could provide more visibility for investors than it’s chosen to do today. By specifying the value of its order book and giving some guidance on the value scheduled to unwind in H2, we would have been able to gain some visibility on profit for the second half of the year.

As things stand, we simply have to trust that this situation will deliver an unprecedented level of H2 profit weighting.

I was neutral on Cerillion in November. While I have some concerns, I do also admire the quality and track record of this business. Cerillion has built its reputation and gained market share while often competing against much larger rivals.

I’m going to leave my AMBER view unchanged today, reflecting my mixed view on the shares at current levels.

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Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RKT)

Down 6% at 4,633p (£30bn) - Q1 Results 2026 - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =

Today’s first-quarter update has seen the consumer goods group’s share price continue its recent descent:

Today’s share price drop may partly be explained by weaker-than-expected sales. Newswire commentary suggests that today’s first-quarter like-for-like revenue growth of 1.3% was below consensus expectations for a figure of 2.9%.

There are lots of moving parts here, but I think the key number to look at for the continuing business are the Core Reckitt + MJN figures (the Essential Home business has now been divested):

The highlighted line flags up weak volumes (-2%) and limited pricing growth, resulting in an overall Q1 revenue decline of 2.2%.

The main reason for the drop in volumes seems to have been a “weak cold and flu season” in Europe and North America. Good news for consumers, not such good news for makers of branded cold and flu remedies.

However, today’s commentary also flags up a number of additional headwinds:

• Geopolitical disruption to operations and supply in our Middle East business – current forecasts do not reflect any impact beyond H1.

• High single digit LFL net revenue growth in Emerging Markets, but with a c.2% headwind as a result of international sanctions disrupting the group’s Russian operations. Essentially, it seems Reckitt is having to reformulate products sold in Russia so that they no longer benefit from EU-owned Intellectual Property.

• In Europe, competition and discounting is making it difficult for Reckitt to expand its share in key categories; “growth rates remained challenged”. The company says it’s seeing encouraging initial results from efforts to gain market share with Finish.

• High commodity prices are having an impact: Reckitt estimates that oil at $110 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 would add £130m to £150m to the group’s cost base. This is said to be “manageable”.

Outlook: this is another company that’s guiding for an H2 weighting to profit:

We maintain our expectation for Group adjusted operating profit margin for FY 2026, with the delivery of this weighted to H2. In H1, the impact of stranded costs, lower seasonal incidence on our higher margin seasonal OTC business and higher commodity prices are expected to result in Group adjusted operating profit margin around 200bp below H1 2025 (24.6%).

I don’t have access to broker forecasts today. My working assumption is that consensus estimates are likely to edge lower, given that today’s weak revenue performance appearst to have been unexpected by the market.

This would continue a trend of recent downgrades that have already seen 2026 consensus EPS estimates cut by 10% in three months:

Assuming no major further changes to forecasts, Reckitt shares are now trading on a forward P/E of 13 with a 5% dividend yield. This is at the low end of the group’s valuation range in recent years and looks potentially good value to me:

Roland’s view

Reckitt is still paying the price for its misguided acquisition of infant formula producer Mead Johnson, whose main brand is Enfamil. This business has since been designated as non-core, but can’t easily be sold as it’s mired in lawsuits alleging the company’s products can cause a serious bowel disease in pre-term infants. The company hasn’t provided for specific damages, but it is involved in some of the same cases as Abbott Laboratories, which was recently ordered to pay $70m in damages in one case.

More broadly, Reckitt appears to be facing a number of temporary headwinds, at least some of which should ease over time.

On a short-term perspective, I think a neutral view is appropriate here. However, as an investment I would argue that the fundamental appeal of this business relies on its ability to perform reliably over very long time periods (unlike many other businesses).

Reckitt has arguably been going through a bad patch for several years, but has still comfortably outperformed the FTSE 100 on a 20-year view. The dividend has also not been cut for at least 20 years, as far as I can see.

It’s often said that consumer brands will be displaced by cheaper own label brands. Today’s commentary makes it clear that this is a source of pressure on trading in Europe at the moment.

At the same time, I think it’s worth remembering how long companies such as Reckitt and Unilever (disc: I hold) have been trading successfully. Reckitt’s history can be traced back to 1840, and Unilever is similar.

These companies’ focus on consumer goods and products that can readily be substituted means they have to adapt to stay in business. The size and age of these businesses proves how good they are at doing this.

The cautious tone of today’s results and the recent downgrades to earnings forecasts mean that I should downgrade my previous AMBER/GREEN view (in January) to AMBER today.

However, I have to admit I’m reluctant to do this. Reckitt’s core brands – names such as Dettol, Strepsils, Durex and Lysol are used by millions of people daily. In today’s update, the company highlighted strong growth in areas of the business that aren’t affected by temporary headwinds:

[...] double-digit growth in China and India and mid-single-digit growth in non-seasonal brands in North America

I’ve rarely seen Reckitt shares trading as cheaply as at present. A P/E of 13 and a 5% looks undemanding to me for a business with this heritage and strong quality metrics:

I note that the stock also qualifies for a number of quality/value screens suggesting it could be attractive on a longer-term view:

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Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX)

Up 14% at 42.5p (£40m) - Full Year Trading Update and Notice of Results - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =

TPXimpact Holdings PLC (AIM: TPX), a leading technology-enabled services company focused on people-powered digital transformation, provides a trading update for the financial year ended 31 March 2026 ("FY26").

This software company has been on a tear recently. Today’s update is the second upgrade to full-year guidance in two months, following an update at the end of February. The shares have doubled already this year:

I’ve not looked at this business in much detail before – probably because TPX has generated an operating loss in five of the last six years. Against this backdrop, I’m keen to see how this improved sentiment is expected to translate into an improved financial performance.

Here’s how the company’s guidance has changed this year. This has led to house broker Cavendish lifting FY26 earnings forecasts by nearly 50% in the last two months:

With thanks to Cavendish for providing update forecasts today, we can see that FY27 estimates have also been upgraded:

• FY27E adj EPS: 6.1p (previously 5.0p)

These revised estimates price TPXImpact on a FY26E P/E of 8.4, falling to a FY27E P/E of 7.

Roland’s view

There’s no trading commentary today, but the company has previously reported a number of big UK government contract wins, as Mark discussed in February. He made the point that the company appears to be reliant on government spending, with relatively few large contracts contributing a significant part of revenue.

While delays to government spending plans held back past performance, the cork appears to be out of the bottle now.

Current forecasts suggest the valuation remains undemanding even though the shares have doubled this year.

With the caveat that I would like to see the company’s unadjusted accounts, I can’t really argue with the StockRanks perception of this as a potential Super Stock.

I see that the shares now also qualify for the interesting Tiny Titans screen – a strategy that’s historically delivered very strong results.

I am going to leave our view unchanged at AMBER/GREEN today for the sole reason that TPXImpact has reported a statutory loss every year since 2023, including H1 26. The interim results show adjusted pre-tax profit of £2.2m converting into a reported pre-tax loss of £(1.7)m, thanks to a plethora of adjusting items.

This approach may seem overly cautious, but my preference is to focus on real profit and cash flow. We haven’t yet seen much of this for TPXImpact, although forecasts suggest this situation should start to improve from FY27 onwards.