Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 22nd July 2026) - BMY, HDD, JHD, LIO, RCH, GNC, BOOT, JDW, MUL

There’s little overnight news to report, apart from one that you’re very familiar with by now: strikes being exchanged between the US and Iran, as mediators attempt to get negotiations started again (I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day).

As there isn’t much overnight news to comment on, I thought I’d mention this article which has been on the BBC Business website for the past few days:

Focused on investors in Korea, Singapore and Australia, it attempts to capture the current sentiment in the tech sector. Most of the comments from the young investors it interviews are quite sensible. But then it’s always fun when you get comments like this in mainstream media:

"I could maybe count with my hands the number of people who aren't investing today," South Korean investor U Chan Lee says. "Even stay-at-home mothers, like my mum, who has never been interested in the stock market, are now interested."

The “shoeshine boy” indicator doesn’t exist anymore, because shoeshine boys don’t exist in the same numbers as they used to. But the principle is still as true as ever: that when those who have never shown much interest in the stock market before are suddenly keen investors, then it’s time for everyone else to be cautious.

• The FTSE is up 0.2% at 10,600

• S&P 500 is down 0.1% at 7,500

• Brent crude (October) is up 0.7% at $89.10/bbl

• Gold is up 1.2% at $4,130/oz

• Bitcoin is down 0.7% at $66,000

---

Leaving it there for today, have a good evening! Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

---

Companies Reporting

---

Graham's Section

Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO)

Down 3% at 322.5p (£203m) - Trading Update - Graham - GREEN =

This one has built up a nice head of steam in real months:

While I’ve not been entirely enthused by the company’s fund performance, competitive positioning, nor its outflows, I’ve held to the view that “profits are profits”, turning GREEN (from AMBER/GREEN) last month.

The Stockopedia calculations have taken a similar view, calling it a “Super Stock”.

Note the attractive P/E multiple, EPS growth rate and dividend yield:

It’s worth mentioning that the EPS growth rate is based on recovery after a severe downturn:

In a similar vein, the dividend yield is after a big cut to the payout:

Checking in on today’s update, we have a familiar theme: outflows continuing, but AUM increasing as a rising market tide lifts all boats.

• Net outflows in Q1 (April to June) of £357m

• AUM rises from £19.6bn to £24.3bn, helped by the £3bn acquisition of River Global.

CEO comment:

The acquisition of River Global has increased AuMA by £3 billion, taking AuMA to over £24 billion, and expanded our investment capabilities and styles, while enhancing the breadth and depth of our investment professionals. River Global has also added several strongly performing funds to the Group, including eight ranked in the first or second quartile of their respective sectors over three years.

Graham’s view

Net outflows were £0.8 billion in the prior quarter (Q4 of FY26).

For FY26 as a whole, net outflows were £4.2 billion.

For FY25, they were £4.9 billion.

In this context, a £357m quarterly outflow is not bad at all - one might almost say “good”! It’s the sort of level where if markets are performing reasonably well, then it could be offset by returns. (the latest quarterly outflow, if annualised, would equate to about 6% of AUM).

I’m therefore going to stay GREEN on this one.

It’s not my most comfortable GREEN by any means, but I perceive value and the StockRanks are very positive, too.

---

J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW)

Down 7% at 702.58p (£749m) - Pre-close trading update Graham - RED ↓

We’ve been pretty nervous about this one, with our most recent coverage being Roland’s AMBER/RED in May.

That May update was a profit warning (“slightly below expectations”).

But the share price has actually risen since then:

Today, however, we get another profit warning.

Key points:

• Like-for-like sales up 4% in the 12 weeks to 19th July 2026 (NB. financial year-end is the end of July).

• Year-to-date like-for-like sales up 4.2%

• Year-to-date, JDW has opened 8 pubs, sold nine. 15 franchised pubs have opened, bringing the total to 23..

Net debt is expected to end the year at £720m, same as last year.

Chairman comment from Tim Martin:

"Profits for the year are likely to be below market expectations, with marginally lower sales than anticipated in the final quarter, combined with higher costs in the areas of food, labour, repairs, energy and business rates."

Graham’s view

The central problem here is that profits are the difference between two large numbers - and one of those numbers in particular (costs) is subject to many forces outside of JDW’s control. Changes in cost inflation and taxes have not been particularly favourable in recent times.

We were already AMBER/RED on this. Do I dare go fully RED?

I think I will, to be consistent with our philosophy that profit warnings are often followed by more profit warnings.

EPS forecasts are gliding downwards:

Long-term, I would expect this stock to enjoy good balance sheet support, as 70% of pubs are owned freehold. And in the words of the most recent interim statement:

The company's freehold assets have not been revalued for over 25 years.

So in the bigger picture, I’m not very negative on JDW. However, I am going to respect the downward trend in earnings forecasts and therefore take a fully negative stance in the short-term.

---

Roland's Section

Hardide (LON:HDD)

Up 21% at 90p (£69m) - Trading Update - Roland - GREEN =

Hardide provides tungsten-based coatings that help prevent corrosion and erosion of on engineering components. Graham upgraded our view on this business in May, recognising its strong momentum. This has proved to be a good call.

Hardide shares had already risen by 26% since then, before today’s stonking upgrade. This has seen broker Cavendish lift its FY26 earnings estimates by 33%, prompting a 20%+ share price surge:

Let’s take a look at what’s new..

Trading update: key points

The strong momentum in the business continues.

• Q3 revenue of £4.1m - this compares to revenue of £4.8m for the whole of H1.

• Growth has been driven by new contract winds and improved operational performance supporting higher output rates.

• Operating profit margins “higher than anticipated”, reflecting successful management of costs. This mainly refers to supplies of tungsten gas, where the company has diversified its sources of supply, forward purchased 50% of requirements for 2027 and is maintaining higher inventories to offset commodity market volatility.

• Confident in doubling revenue this year and then doubling revenue again over the next two to three years.

• To support growth the Board has approved £4.5m of capital investment in three new coating reactors, to be funded through internal cash and debt as required.

Outlook

As a result, the Board now expects that full year financial performance will be materially ahead of its previous expectations [for the year ending 30 Sept 26].

Hardide helpfully includes details of previous consensus forecasts (revenue: £13.4m, EBITDA: £4.3m).

With thanks to broker Cavendish and Research Tree, we have access to a full set of updated forecasts today. These show impressive upgrades to FY26 forecasts – with less than three months until the end of the year, I would expect a high level of confidence in the new FY26 estimate:

• FY26E adj EPS: 5.4p (+33% vs 4.0p previously)

• FY27E adj EPS: 7.7p (+43% vs FY26)

At the last-seen share price this morning of 90p, these forecasts put Hardide on a FY26E P/E of 17, falling to a P/E of 12 in FY27.

Roland’s view

I don’t know this business especially well, but what seems to have happened here is that revenue growth (through new business) has led to improved capacity utilisation and generated powerful operating leverage. This means that fixed costs have shrunk relative to revenue, catapulting the group into profitability:

• FY24: 48% gross margin / operating loss

• H1 25: 54% gross margin / operating loss

• FY25: 57% gross margin / 4.3% operating margin

• H1 26: 65% gross margin / 26.8% operating margin

• FY26E: 62% gross margin / 35.2% operating margin

This explains why a 125% increase in revenue this year is expected to translate into a 2,600% increase in earnings (from 0.2p per share in FY25 to 5.4p per share in FY26).

The result is that investors have had to rapidly re-evaluate the valuation of this business. It’s worth noting that according to our data, this is the sixth earnings upgrade in the last 18 months:

My impression is that the market is still catching up – a FY27 P/E of 12 doesn’t seem excessive, although it’s worth remembering that the company is now investing in significant new manufacturing capacity. If demand from new orders doesn’t keep pace with this, profitability could worsen again.

Management commentary on the outlook for new business sounds broadly reassuring to me today, although I don’t have the in-depth knowledge of the business needed to evaluate these prospects:

The growth is anticipated to be achieved by diversifying the customer base, growing existing key accounts, including progressing ongoing supply arrangements with its major energy sector customer in North America, and developing the potential for significant revenues in the Middle East from a similar end use application. In addition, the Company has a growing pipeline of new business opportunities that it is seeking to convert in the short to medium term, including in new end use sectors such as semi-conductors.

I would guess that today’s upgrade and the introduction of FY27 forecasts will result in an improvement to Hardide’s StockRank – possibly even a Jump.

With such strong momentum and a seemingly reasonable valuation, I am going to leave our positive GREEN view unchanged today.

---

James Halstead (LON:JHD)

Down 4.5% at 120p (£501m) - Trading Update - Roland - BLACK (AMBER/GREEN ↓)

(At the time of writing, Roland has a long position in JHD.)

I don’t think anyone would really dispute the financial quality or balance sheet strength of this family-controlled vinyl flooring business. Nor could we really argue about its long-term focus and consistency. But I think the company’s recent record on growth is probably open to debate.

James Halstead’s operating profit has only risen by 15% over the last 10 years – that’s an annualised growth rate of 1.5%:

Perhaps worse is that revenue has been shrinking from the record high set in FY23. The group’s top line has grown at an annualised rate of just 1.7% since 2016:

In fairness, there are plenty of good reasons for this. Even ignoring pandemic disruption, many of the company’s end markets (commercial vinyl flooring and luxury vinyl tiles) have been subdued. Supply chain conditions and cost inflation have put additional pressure on the business.

Despite these mitigating circumstances, we need to consider growth – historic and prospective – in our assessment of any business. This is especially true when it comes to valuation.

I’m on record as suggesting James Halstead could be cheap, but today’s update is the second profit warning in four months. Does my positive view still hold?

Headwinds: we’ve got ‘em

All of this brings me to today’s trading update, which covers the year ended 30 June 2026.

Halstead’s commentary is generally brief, but it’s also transparent and detailed. Here are some of the key points:

Market conditions: gained UK market share, with modest increase in sales. The company’s presence in the UK market is mainly through repair and refurbishment in education, healthcare and hospitality. As we regularly see in the DSMR, these are sectors where many end user budgets are under pressure.

Elsewhere, Europe remained “solid but muted”. However, North America and the Middle East were 54% ahead of comparatives, with South Africa 25% ahead of comparative figures. These are smaller markets for the company, but this level of growth suggests Halstead is gaining share and establishing a reputation.

Profitability & Pricing: the Iran conflict caused many suppliers to “immediately” add surcharges to their pricing. Halstead opted for a different approach:

As a manufacturer with many end contractors committed to projects, we felt this was a situation to absorb some of this cost and to buffer the effects to the end contractors, at least for the short term.

Management explains that while much of their business is through distributors, “our connections to end projects are strong, especially overseas”. In markets where demand was already “fragile”, the company decided that maintaining previously agreed pricing was the “responsible course of action”.

While I wouldn’t question this company’s long-term commitment to its customers, the decision to hold prices wasn’t entirely selfless:

Furthermore, James Halstead carries significant stock and with many competitors not as well placed, we saw it as an opportunity to take some extra volume as those competitors raised prices.

Ultimately, this comes back to the strength of the group’s balance sheet, which allows Halstead to provide superior service and availability, even in disrupted markets.

June trading: UK sales were strong last month, but the company admits this may have been due to contractors buying ahead of July’s planned price rises. This raises the risk that ‘pull-forward’ could adversely affect FY27 results.

Outlook

Halstead provides clear guidance relative to last year’s results – so anyone can see the numbers and work them out quite easily.

In summary, the Company anticipates that sales will be marginally below the 2025 comparative with profit approximately 10-15% below that of last year.

FY25 revenue and profit after tax were £262m and £40.6m respectively.

Applying the mid-point of today’s guidance gives me the following FY26 estimates:

• FY26E revenue: c.£260m

• FY26E profit after tax: c.£36m

With thanks to the company’s joint brokers, Zeus and Panmure Liberum, I can see confirmation of my estimates today and revised EPS forecasts:

Panmure Liberum:

• FY26E EPS: 8.7p (prev. 9.9p)

• FY27E EPS: 9.8p (prev. 10.4p)

Zeus:

• FY26E EPS: 8.7p (prev. 9.4p)

• FY27E EPS: 9.4p (prev. 9.7p)

Both brokers have converged on an FY26 EPS estimate of 8.7p. Given that the year has ended, I guess we can be fairly confident the real figure will be close to this.

This puts James Halstead on a FY26E P/E of 14, with a prospective dividend yield of 8%.

Interestingly, both brokers expect the company’s strong cash generation to have continued despite last year’s headwinds. Net cash is expected to have been over £70m at the year end.

It’s this balance sheet strength that allows Halstead to maintain high levels of stock availability and defer price rises to support existing projects. Having plenty of cash also allows the company to maintain a near-100% dividend payout ratio.

Roland’s view

I am a James Halstead shareholder, so I’m talking my own book and am naturally biased.

To me, the fact that James Halstead can navigate through periods of external turbulence without needing to compromise its strategy or risk its balance sheet is a sign of the quality and likely durability of this business (which has been trading since 1915).

Polyflor has an international reputation as a high quality product and is used in many major public facilities and large commercial installations. The group’s strategy of supporting its customer base in recent years has not led to any noticeable reduction in profitability and quality metrics remain excellent.

This approach also feels right to me. After all, which of us wants to deal with a counterparty who pulls the rug out on previous pricing at the drop of a hat?

On the other hand, I recognise that this business is to some extent at the mercy of external conditions. There’s a risk James Halstead will remain stuck in a low-growth scenario for some time. Holding the shares in this scenario may carry an opportunity cost.

Over the longer term, the worst case might be that pricing power and profitability will be gradually eroded as the company scrabbles to hold onto market share.

Fortunately, I don’t see any sign of this at the moment. As far as I can see, the company is likely to be gaining share in a difficult market and is well positioned for any upturn.

For me, this is an income holding. I am more likely to top up than sell following today’s update.

However, I have to recognise the lack of momentum here and consider valuation.

While the 8% yield is certainly attractive, this year’s forecast dividend of 9.1p is no longer expected to be covered by earnings. The group’s strong cash position should mean the payout remains safe, but an uncovered dividend is never ideal.

Valuing the business relative to earnings also suggests to me that a share price recovery may hinge on a return to growth. Despite the strong quality metrics, the FY27E P/E of 13 is not necessarily cheap if EPS forecasts flatline or even fall further.

On a long-term view, I remain fairly confident this stock should remain an income compounder, but I have to respect the lack of momentum at present.

For this reason, I’m going to move our view down by one notch to AMBER/GREEN today to reflect near-term uncertainty.