Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 9th September 2026) - VCT, CNS, GDWN, MAB1, ANP

Good morning. The US has escalated its trade war with Canada by banning the import of certain Canadian products, including dairy, motorcycles and whisky. The US is also said to have launched additional 50% tariffs on certain other Canadian exports.

In the Middle East, the US claims to have “destroyed” a number of Iranian oil tankers following strikes on a US warship. However, oil prices have stayed below $100, probably aided by the knowledge that an increasing amount of oil is exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Closer to home, a visit by US envoys to Ukraine did not produce any apparent breakthroughs and was followed by renewed Russian attacks on Kyiv overnight. The US team also visited Russia, following which Donald Trump is said to have spent around an hour on the phone with Vladimir Putin.

Finally, Apple’s new CEO John Ternus is expected to unveil the company’s first foldable phone at a launch event later today. It’s expected to be priced at around $2,000. Also in tech, Anthropic is reported to have withheld its latest model from testing by the UK’s AI Security Institute (Aisi) ahead of its release, continuing a trend of restricting access to top models for non-US nationals.

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.4% at 10,770

• S&P 500 is up 0.1% at 7,684

• Brent crude (November) is up 1.1% at $98.97/bbl

• Gold is up 0.3% at $4,400/oz

• Bitcoin is up 0.5% at $78,868

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Mark Simpson joins me (Roland) today.

Today's report is now complete. See you in the morning!

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Roland's Section

Victrex (LON:VCT)

Up 15% at 1,004p (£m) - Pre-Close Trading Update - Roland - AMBER/GREEN ↑

Victrex plc, the innovative global leader in high-performance polymer solutions, today announces a pre-close trading update for the year ending 30 September 2026.

Today’s update from Victrex is brief but appears to solidify a change in trajectory for this chemicals business, with an upgrade to full-year profit guidance.

Here are the key points:

• Strong Q3 momentum continued into Q4, with good demand in Aerospace, Electronics and Value Added Resellers (where Victrex sells bulk PEEK to other manufacturers).

• Completed a 10% reduction in headcount, with initial benefits in Q4 and expected annualised savings of at least £10m expected from FY27.

• Completed disposal of US Kleiss Gears business, recording a loss on disposal of c.£3m.

• Outlook: the board now expects FY26 underlying pre-tax profit to be £45m to £47m (previously £42m to £44m)

Updated EPS estimates: I don’t have access to any updated broker forecasts this morning, but some number crunching gives me a revised FY26E EPS estimate of 41-42p. That lifts the stock’s forward P/E of around 23x after this morning’s gains.

Roland’s view

I have to hold my hands up and admit that we may have missed the turning point for Victrex earlier this year.

Until quite recently, the trend at Victrex was persistently negative. The shares had been falling for five straight years…

… while repeated profit warnings had seen earnings estimates halve over the last 18 months:

However, the picture appears to have changed over the last four months:

• 11 May: Our last coverage was of May’s half-year results. At that time, I moved to AMBER/RED following what appeared to be another profit warning, with pre-tax profit downgraded to £42-44m versus previous consensus of £46.6m.

• 7 July: Victrex’s third-quarter update reported stable selling prices and included a key phrase suggesting performance might be stabilising: “momentum continues in Q3: full year guidance maintained”.

With hindsight, it looks like I was too cautious in May and then did not spot the significance of the July update.

However, the clues were in the data and the StockRanks did spot the opportunity.

Ed has talked about the significance of StockRank jumps recently. Here’s another example – Victrex’s StockRank jumped and then started trending higher, right before the share price took off:

Victrex’s share price has now risen by 70% since the company’s Q3 update on 7 July. Today’s upgrade suggests that the company’s previously-negative earnings momentum may now have turned positive.

If this new momentum can be maintained, then further upgrades could be possible. The big question now is how much of the recovery has already been priced in.

That is a difficult question to answer. While the shares are still trading >50% lower than five years ago, Victrex has lost a lot of its previous profitability over this period. Margins have been compressed and much of the volume growth reported has been in the lower-margin VAR business – essentially bulk sales of raw material, rather than finished parts.

Consensus forecasts don’t yet reflect this, but I expect to see a sizeable dividend cut this year. The payout remains uncovered by earnings and the group’s debt levels (while manageable) have been rising.

When broker Singer Capital initiated coverage in August, they set a 970p price target and forecast a 77% dividend cut to 13.4p.

The share price is 1,004p as I type, so by some measures at least we might argue the valuation is up with events.

Personally, I think there could be some further upside to this price target on a medium-term view, if margins and volumes can return to growth. After all, Victrex used to routinely report earnings of c.80-90p per share. The shares could still be cheap at current levels.

The question is whether past profitability (or better) is still achievable in an evolving market for PEEK. I’m not sure, but I think it’s reasonable to believe Victrex could once again become a larger and more profitable business after a cyclical slowdown across the chemicals sector.

Victrex has scheduled a Capital Markets Day on 24 September at which CEO Dr James Routh plans to flesh out his plans for the business and his view on growth opportunities.

I’m going to move our view to AMBER/GREEN to reflect the sharp improvement in momentum and expected improvement in profitability from 2027 onwards. I acknowledge there’s some valuation risk here, but I think this remains a decent business.

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Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1)

Down 19% at 398p (£233m) - Trading Update and Revised 2026 Expectations - Roland - AMBER ↓

Today’s update gives with one hand but takes with the other. While this franchised mortgage broking business has upgraded H1 profit guidance, it has also made a substantial cut to full-year 2026 profit guidance.

Let’s take a look.

Half-year update: this relates to the six months to 30 June 2026.

On 23 July, MAB nudged up its H1 guidance to indicate that adjusted pre-tax profit for the period would be £14.6m (H1 2025: £14.5m).

The company has now completed its half-year reporting process and expects to report adj PBT of c.£14.8m, slightly higher.

Current trading and outlook

This is where the problems start. MAB has cut its full-year profit guidance by 12% versus consensus:

… the Group now expects Adjusted profit before tax for the year ending 31 December 2026 of approximately £38.0m. This compares with current market consensus of £43.4m.

A number of reasons are given for this, some of which relate to market conditions and some of which are company-specific issues:

Housing market: MAB says that earlier this year, interest rates were expected to fall and house-buying activity was expected to increase. Neither of these things have happened. The company cites UK housing market data showing that purchase transactions were 3% lower in the seven months of 2026, while mortgage approvals for house purchases were 15% lower in July than one year earlier.

Problem acquisition? A “material proportion” of the growth expected in 2026 was due to come from Fluent (acquired in 2022). This hasn’t happened; management says that “delivery against Fluent’s strategic plan has been slower than anticipated”.

As a quick recap, Fluent is an online-focused lending intermediary that specialises in areas such as second charge mortgages and bridging loans. MAB paid £72.7m for 75.4% of Fluent in 2022, when it was expected to have generated £4.2m of EBITDA.

What’s the real problem?

We all know housing market activity is soft. I would be surprised if it has taken until September for MAB to factor this into its forecasts, especially as the company said in July that it was “not assuming an improvement in housing transactions” while macro uncertainty continued.

The numbers provided today suggest to me that the main reason for this profit warning is Fluent, which looks to have become a problematic acquisition.

Fluent: M&A gone bad?

The acquisition of Fluent was a big deal for MAB in 2022, requiring a £40m equity placing and additional debt.

The purchase was priced on a trailing FY22 EV/EBITDA multiple of around 23x (i.e. it looked expensive), so there was clearly an expectation of strong growth from Fluent.

Unfortunately, Fluent doesn’t seem to have delivered as hoped:

• 2023: pre-tax loss of £1.1m

• 2024: adjusted pre-tax profit of £4.3m

• 2025: not specified, but we are told that Fluent “returned to a clear growth trajectory”.

That brings us up to today. We’re told that delivery against Fluent’s plan has “been slower than anticipated” due to delays with expected new lead sources:

Following a steady recovery in business performance and the continued development of its mainstream first-charge mortgage proposition, Fluent was expected to deliver a significant step-up in 2026, supported by new contractual lead flows. However, the launch of these arrangements has been delayed.

As a result, the company has incurred “pilot costs” without the expected contribution to revenue.

Management provides some frustratingly vague profit guidance for Fluent today:

Fluent’s expected contribution to Group Adjusted profit before tax for 2026 is approximately £5m lower than previously anticipated.

This tells us what the shortfall is expected to be, but it doesn’t tell us what the previous expectation was for Fluent. Was Fluent even expected to make a profit in 2026? We can’t be sure.

I tend to view a deliberate lack of disclosure as a sign that the underlying facts aren’t very positive, so I suspect Fluent’s contribution was already expected to be quite modest this year.

I think Fluent has triggered today’s warning: MAB has cut group level adjusted pre-tax profit guidance by £5.4m today while also cutting pre-tax profit guidance for Fluent by around £5m.

Based on these numbers, I think it’s fair to assume that the underperformance of Fluent is the main reason for today’s profit warning, not difficult housing market conditions.

Updated forecasts: Despite being a small cap, none of MAB’s three brokers make their coverage available on Research Tree, so I don’t have access to any updated forecasts today.

Using the previous consensus forecasts available on MAB’s website and a guesstimated tax rate, my number crunching gives me a revised FY26E adj EPS estimate of around 47.5p per share, around 10% below the previous estimate of 52.6p.

If I’m right, that leaves the stock on a FY26E P/E of around 8.4x following today’s fall – in line with the valuation prior to today:

Roland’s view

Graham cut his view on MAB to AMBER/GREEN in July, citing the demanding H2 profit growth and heavy H2 weighting. This turns out to have been a good call. The StockRanks have also moderated, suggesting a Contrarian view:

In some ways, I think it’s encouraging that today’s warning appears to be largely driven by underperformance at Fluent: it suggests that the core MAB business is still performing largely as expected.

On the other hand, it’s disappointing to see that management has potentially allocated capital quite poorly by buying a business that is still not delivering as expected, four years after its acquisition.

Until today, the trend in earnings forecasts has been flat or positive over the last 12 months, so a positive view has made sense:

I think it’s also interesting that the shares are now trading at levels first seen nine years ago, since when revenue has doubled and operating profit has risen by c.70%:

In its 2025 results, MAB said its market share of new mortgage lending was 8.4%, while its share of Product Transfers was 3%.

That’s a fairly large chunk of the UK mortgage market.

If or when housing market activity does improve, it’s not hard to imagine MAB being a major beneficiary of increased activity, especially as new lending is more likely to include an insurance policy, boosting commission income. The company’s quality metrics remain strong and have historically supported strong cash generation:

Are the shares cheap and good enough to allow me to maintain our AMBER/GREEN view following today’s profit warning?

Perhaps they are. But with no improvement in housing market conditions on the horizon and continued underperformance from an expensive acquisition, I’m going to turn neutral to reflect the increased level of uncertainty here.

If the half-year results provide greater clarity on trading and the outlook for 2027, then I would hope we might be able to move back to AMBER/GREEN again fairly soon.

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Mark's Section

Corero Network Security (LON:CNS) 

Up 15% at 9.81p (£43.5m) - H1 2026 Interim Results - Mark - AMBER ↑

Corero describes itself as “the distributed denial of service ("DDoS") protection specialists and champion of adaptive, real-time service availability”. So it is perhaps not surprising that they are trading well in an environment where cybersecurity is facing an increased focus.

The headlines read well, with a significant increase in revenue and a shift back into positive EBITDA:

· Strong revenue growth of 42% to $15.5 million (H1 2025: $10.9 million)

o Underpinned by new customer wins and contract expansions

· EBITDA improved to $2.6 million (H1 2025: loss of $1.4 million)

· Order intake increased 14% to $14.3 million (H1 2025: $12.5 million)

o Year-on-year progress highlights ongoing traction with channel partners and ongoing expansion of product offering

· Annualised Recurring Revenues ("ARR") grew by 12% to $24.1 million (H1 2025: $21.6 million)

· Continued high customer retention at 96% further underpins Corero's market leading position (H1 2025: 98%)

However, a couple of things stand out from this. The first is the lack of mention of profits or cash in the highlights, which suggests the company may be less focused on these measures than I would like.

Scrolling to the end of the Chief Financial Officer's Review, I find that Positive EBITDA does indeed turn into positive PBT:

Profit before taxation for H1 2026 was $1.4 million (H1 2025: loss $2.4 million). The reported earnings per share was $0.3 cents (H1 2025: loss $0.5 cents).

However, cash is down, with the blame put on the shift to a subscription model:

Cash and cash equivalents as at 30 June 2026 was $2.1 million (H1 2025: $3.1 million), a reduction of $1.9 million in the six-month period (H1 2025: $2.2 million decrease) as the Group continues to navigate the changing cashflow profile from the uptake of subscription services. Receivables have increased to $11.1 million as at 30 June 2026 (H1 2025: $8.7 million) as a result of revenue growth.

Recurring Revenue:

ARR is said to have grown by on 12% compared to the headline revenue figure of 42% growth. There’s not enough in here to be immediately concerned. However, cash flow should remain under close watch.

What the ARR growth does in fact reflect is that this is not so much a strong H1, but a very weak H1 comparator from last year:

EBITDA was actually down on H2 last year:

Corero does indeed appear to have some seasonality. However, management appear to have never directly addressed why this is, apart from saying “customer buying patterns”. The only thing I can think of is that Corero's customer base run annual capex and network-capacity planning cycles tied to a calendar fiscal year, and that tend to finalise and sign larger infrastructure and security contracts later in the year. The shift to more recurring revenue contracts should reduce this seasonality effect.

Outlook:

The seasonality effect on non-recurring contracts is still strong enough for them to upgrade expectations, though:

Looking ahead to the remainder of the current financial year, based on a strong start to H2 2026, recent customer wins and an improving pipeline, management now expects Corero to exceed market expectations for revenue and significantly exceed market expectations for EBITDA for FY 2026.

Forecasts:

In response, Canaccord increase their Sales number from $29.0m to $31.9m and adj. EBITDA from $3.1 to $5.3m. EPS goes from break-even to 0.5c. Zeus move to a very similar $32.1m, $5.3m and 0.5c.

Here’s what that looks like:

So this new consensus is in line with longer-term trends. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by the upgrade.

The brokers also upgrade outer years in line with these longer-term trends:

Valuation:

Zeus don’t give an explicit valuation, but say that:

The share price has come off unduly over the summer and at the current 8.5p our upgraded forecasts now see the stock trading on an EV/EBITDA of just 10.2x CY26 and 8.2x CY27. We continue to feel that it offers excellent value for its growth opportunities and security, compared to the CY26 multiples of other London cybersecurity stocks; NCC Group on 11.2x and Intercede on 10.7x (CapIQ 9Sept26).

Canaccord put an increased 21p price target on the stock, saying::

On 1.5x CY27E EV/Sales & 2.2x EV/current ARR the shares are in our view materially undervalued with growth-adjusted valuations of listed comps suggesting >4x EV/S.

I’m not a huge fan of ARR valuations. There are too many variables that impact profitability beyond ARR for this to be a great comparator amongst companies IMO.

Overall, revenue is forecast to grow 12% pa over the next couple of years, and EBITDA by a similar amount. This does appear to be in line with long term trends so perhaps one could argue that say 8x EV/EBITDA is fair value. However, offsetting this Canaccord are forecasting EBIT and EPS to be flat, and capex is running ahead of depreciation and amortisation. I think I would struggle to pay more than 8x on this basis. This would be around £36m EV on a forward basis.

The current £52m market cap based on a 10p share price therefore doesn’t look like great value at 11x EV/EBITDA, even if we assume that some of the working capital outflow will reverse into year-end, making the EV £3m or so lower.

Something the StockRanks back up:

Although I’d expect them to improve when stronger FY26 numbers get processed next year, instead of unusually weak FY25.

Mark’s view

I think the Stock Rank and our previous view of RED may be a little harsh here. This is a reasonable business growing revenue at low-teens percentages. It has net cash which helps investors to take the long-term view. However, there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of operational gearing, and brokers are forecasting this revenue growth to merely offset cost increases leading to flat EPS going forward.

Given the scale of the upgrade in EBITDA today, this could be the start of a more positive trend for the company. However, I note that this upgrade merely returns forecasts to longer term trends. The next upgrade would require a genuine step change in performance, that I don’t think is guaranteed.

A forward EV/EBITDA of 11 doesn’t look great value for a business that capitalises a lot of costs, but cybersecurity is an area that is gaining increasing attention amongst investors. I think for this reason, combined with the scale of the upgrade, I may be able to stretch to an AMBER view.

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Goodwin (LON:GDWN)

Down 4% at £151 (£1.16bn) - Response to Press Speculation & Sale of Mechanical Engineering Division - Mark (I hold) - AMBER/GREEN

This has been one of the most fascinating market situations of late.

In a move that shocked many, on 7th August the management of Goodwin positioned itself to sell “a substantial portion” of its Mechanical Engineering division. Given this is a family-controlled business that operates with a very long-term horizon, this opened up a huge range of possibilities.

The rationale was that the management had received interest at a level they couldn’t ignore. However, the eagle-eyed will have spotted that key Goodwin family members had recently moved their residency to locations with more favourable tax regimes. It was not clear what the major driver of the sale was.

On August 28, Goodwin published its full-year results and used them to confirm the sale process was live. Trading profit had more than doubled to £77.5 million on revenue that rose to £280m. Management said the sale process for Mechanical Engineering (which alone had generated £211 million in revenue and £68.7m in operating profit that year) was actively under way, targeted completion within 12 months, and reiterated that most of the proceeds would go back to shareholders, with the group aiming for zero net debt afterward. Shares jumped over £200 on the news, with many speculating that the price for assets would be in excess of the then share price.

Yesterday evening, the FT reported that:

Cerberus, the private equity firm founded by billionaire investor and US defence official Stephen Feinberg, is nearing a £1bn deal to carve out the defence business of London-listed engineering group Goodwin.

The price mooted was clear a disappointment to many holders, leading to the share price to fall around 20% yesterday afternoon.

Today we get some more detail, first in a “response to speculation” RNS, and then in confirmation of an agreed sale:

…reached an agreement to sell a substantial part of its Mechanical Engineering division which includes Goodwin Steel Castings Limited, Goodwin International Limited, Noreva GmbH, Easat Group and the Pumps Division… to an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management…for a headline cash consideration of up to approximately £1.1 billion (subject to customary closing adjustments), following an extensive and thorough sale process conducted by Goodwin.

Although the share price has been volatile in response, the confirmation has led to a further decline in the share price so far today.

The typically low Stock Rank for Goodwin over the last decade, particularly the Value rank has put me off owning shares here...

…until today.

Valuation:

At £152/share the market cap is £1.14bn, which means that the market is valuing the business at around the disposal proceeds. On top of this we have £25m confirmed dividend payout (going ex-dividend on 17th Sep), the refractory business, Duvelco, and AVD Fire. They say:

Particular emphasis will be placed on accelerating the commercial development of the Group's newer growth opportunities, including Duvelco and AVD Fire, alongside supporting the continued expansion of the Group's established Refractory businesses. The Board believes these businesses offer significant long-term value creation potential and will benefit from increased management focus and investment.

Refractory generated a £15.7m operating profit last year. “Technological” lost £3.5m, but it would seem strange to put no value on Duvelco, which they see as a great opportunity, even if commercial sales are taking longer than expected.

The market clearly sees some risk with the deal. Let’s go through each one:

Completion: They say: “The Transaction is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2027, subject to the receipt of customary regulatory approvals and completion of an internal reorganisation.” Given the sale to a US company with links to the current administration, it seems unlikely that approval won’t be given by UK or US authorities.

This is a substantial change of business and will need shareholder approval. I’ve seen chatter that suggests shareholders don’t see this as a good deal, but the family holding surely gets this over the line.

The time value of money for 6 months' completion is surely 5% max for most shareholders.

Up to £1.1bn: This leads to some wiggle room for the final payment to be less than the deadline figure. However, this reads as if the price is agreed but the usual adjustments for intercompany balances and working capital will apply. These should not be significant.

Use of proceeds: A company hanging on to the cash can be a risk, but we have confirmation that “Goodwin intends to pay a significant proportion of the net cash sale proceeds from the Transaction to its shareholders. The quantum, timing and form of this payment will remain at the discretion of the Board, and an update will be provided in due course.” My own feeling is that they will aim for around £1bn returned, with up to £100m retained to invest in the Technological Division and pay any transaction costs.

Future corporate structure: Could the family want to retain a bigger proportion of the remainco and use a delisting or similar to force it? It seems unlikely to me, and if they did go this route, they would surely offer a tender at greater than the current price, as they would have to accept that Refractory and Technological each have some value?

Mark’s view

Graham viewed this as AMBER at £194, due to the uncertainty with the valuation of the for-sale parts of the company. His caution has proved prescient, with many disappointed by the price level achieved. However, with much greater certainty on the sale, and the market cap valuing the remaining parts of the business at negligible value, it seems hard not to be more positive. The nature of the investment here has shifted, from one where one backs a management team for very long-term growth to a short-term mispricing based on a sum-of-parts. Personally, I am much more comfortable with the latter. Hence, I have been buying on today’s weakness. There are still risks involved, but going through each one, I don’t see enough concerns to put me off holding, at least until the sales proceeds are received. AMBER/GREEN