It's a Wrap - Four Months of Reporting Season - Which Stocks Caught the Eye?
We've just come through one of the most intense periods in the UK stock market calendar. From December to end March, hundreds of UK-listed companies released trading statements, full-year results, and interim updates - and our editorial team have been there hustling out the signals every single day.
In this piece, I want to help you see the wood from the trees. Buried within four months of regulatory announcements are some powerful signals - signals that research has shown can predict future share price performance.
And the timing right now may prove to matter. Markets sold off sharply on the Iran conflict but are now rallying on the first signs of a peace treaty. If you're thinking about where to redeploy capital, this is exactly when you want to know where the strongest signals are. Reporting season isn't just news - for those who know what to look for, it’s a real edge.
The Numbers
From the 1st December 2025 to 2nd April 2026, the Daily Stock Market Report has covered an incredible 2,034 individual news stories across 86 trading days. Of those, our team has written 557 individual analyses - ranging from quick assessments in the summary table to detailed deep dives.
Here's what the signal breakdown looks like:
| Signal | Count |
|---|---|
| Significantly ahead of expectations | 14 |
| Ahead of expectations | 137 |
| In line with expectations | 251 |
| Profit Warnings | 63 |
That's a roughly 2.3:1 ratio of positive to negative surprises - which tells us something about the resilience of UK corporate earnings, in spite of all the budget, inflation and rates uncertainty. Or perhaps it just tells us that management has learned to lower expectations to beat them.
It’s worth reflecting on the shape of reporting season. The chart below shows that January was peak trading statement season - with 45% of all mentions in the month due to trading updates (blue). March then brought the full wave of annual and interim results (orange).
When you break out just the trading and results signals against expectations week by week, the picture is even more striking:
The green (ahead/significantly ahead) announcements dominated the red (profit warnings / below expectations) throughout the period. January's peak weeks saw 20–25 positives stacked up against just a handful of negatives.
The Big Jumps
When a company reports ahead of expectations or an earnings beat and the share price moves sharply, pay attention. Our research on announcement-day price jumps shows they have genuine predictive power. They can also be leading indicators of a shift in the StockRanks.
Here are some of the biggest positive moves this season on ahead-of-expectations announcements:
| Date | Stock | Jump | StockRank (then → now) |
Signal | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec | Made Tech (MTEC) | +28% | 65 → 83 | Significantly ahead | +11% |
| 12 Jan | IQE (IQE) | +42% | 22 → 36 | Ahead | +175% |
| 12 Jan | Corero Network (CNS) | +17% | 11 → 36 | Ahead | +12% |
| 26 Jan | S4 Capital (SFOR) | +46% | 44 → 96 | Ahead | +23% |
| 28 Jan | Colefax (CFX) | +16% | 96 → 98 | Ahead | -6% |
| 29 Jan | Saga (SAGA) | +15% | 51 → 49 | Ahead | +6% |
| 11 Feb | IG Design (IGR) | +26% | 38 → 66 | Ahead | -8% |
| 17 Feb | MTI Wireless Edge (MWE) | +15% | 87 → 98 | Significantly ahead | +3% |
| 16 Mar | System1 (SYS1) | +19% | 73 → 58 | Significantly ahead | +22% |
| 17 Mar | Trustpilot (TRST) | +32% | 40 → 75 | Ahead | -5% |
Performance to 8th April 2026.
As a group, these ten stocks averaged +23% since their announcement - in a market that's been essentially flat over the same period. That's the drift effect in action. These jumps have also created an average 17 point gain in StockRank since - with some like S4 Capital rocketing towards the high 90s.
IQE has almost tripled since its January ahead announcement in part due to bid action - but also a classic case of a jump signalling potential undervaluation. System1 has continued to drift higher (+16%) after its significantly-ahead update in March. Others have given back ground in the recent sell-off - but if the fundamental signal is still intact, a market-driven pullback from a genuine beat could be an opportunity, not a warning.
Repeated "Ahead" Announcements
This is where it gets really interesting. When a company tells you it's ahead of expectations twice or three times in the space of a few months, that's a pattern - and our research shows it's one of the strongest predictors of continued outperformance.
| Stock | Times | StockRank (then → now) |
Signals | Dates | Since 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramsdens (RFX) | 3× | 98 → 97 |
Ahead → Sig. ahead → Ahead | Jan, Feb, Mar | -6% |
| Peel Hunt (PEEL) | 2× | 82 → 72 |
Sig. ahead → Ahead | Jan, Mar | -8% |
| Volex (VLX) | 2× | 90 → 85 |
Ahead → Sig. ahead | Jan, Mar | +11% |
| Made Tech (MTEC) | 2× | 65 → 82 |
Sig. ahead × 2 | Dec, Feb | +11% |
| Galliford Try (GFRD) | 2× | 96 → 93 |
Ahead × 2 | Jan, Mar | -2% |
| Morgan Sindall (MGNS) | 2× | 86 → 85 |
Sig. ahead → Ahead | Feb, Feb | -15% |
| Zotefoams (ZTF) | 2× | 92 → 84 |
Ahead × 2 | Jan, Mar | -1% |
| Tribal (TRB) | 2× | 89 → 94 |
Sig. ahead → Ahead | Dec, Jan | -17% |
| Tandem (TND) | 2× | 88 → 87 |
Ahead × 2 | Feb, Mar | -12% |
| THG (THG) | 2× | 65 → 42 |
Ahead × 2 | Jan, Mar | -30% |
| Personal Group (PGH) | 2× | 79 → 75 |
Ahead × 2 | Jan, Mar | 0% |
| ECO Animal Health (EAH) | 2× | 95 → 96 |
Sig. ahead → Ahead | Dec, Mar | -6% |
Performance to 8th April 2026.
Interestingly, these “repeats” have averaged a negative -6% return since the first announcement. This looks underwhelming - but it’s worth considering that this group averaged a +40% gain in 2025 through to the market peak in January. All had positive returns last year, with Ramsdens +62%, Personal Group +67%, and Volex +48%. The recent sell-off has given back some of those gains, but the fundamental momentum hasn’t changed. These companies are repeatedly telling the market things are going better than expected.
Volex is a standout - a UK business that's quietly become an AI infrastructure play through its data centre cabling division, where sales doubled last year. Galliford Try (SR96) and Morgan Sindall (SR86) are both construction companies beating expectations while much of the sector struggles - will infrastructure spending hold up even as consumer-facing construction weakens?
Sector Themes
Breaking the signals down by sector reveals where the strength and weakness really sits:
| Sector | Ahead signals | Warnings / Below |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Cyclicals | 34 | 21 |
| Industrials | 32 | 9 |
| Technology | 27 | 9 |
| Financials | 21 | 9 |
| Healthcare | 12 | 2 |
| Consumer Defensives | 9 | 4 |
| Basic Materials | 8 | 3 |
| Energy | 7 | 3 |
Consumer Cyclicals is the most polarised sector of the season - the most positives and the most profit warnings. Comparing those trading well (Next, Currys, Watches of Switzerland, Colefax) versus those trading poorly (Card Factory, JD Wetherspoon, Topps Tiles, Everyman) tells you that consumer spending hasn’t collapsed - but it does seem to be bifurcating. Specialists retailers with pricing power, or digital platforms seem to be holding up ok, but the more commodity and footfall dependent areas seem to be struggling. And anything housing sector related appears to be struggling with rate gloom.
The Profit Warning Hall of Shame
Digging deeper into the negatives, there have been some brutal profit warnings. If you don't know what to do on a profit warning, there's really only one answer: sell immediately. As Jim Slater said, "you want to be first in the queue of disappointed enthusiasts." Our research consistently shows that profit warning stocks tend to continue underperforming. Yes of course some do recover, but I don’t like the odds.
The table below shows the top 10 biggest one day declines in our set of 42 profit warnings.
| Stock | Drop | StockRank (then → now) |
Date | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transense Technologies (TRT) | -36% | 63 → 41 | 30 Jan | -9% |
| Card Factory (CARD) | -27% | 80 → 55 | 12 Dec | -6% |
| Everyman Media (EMAN) | -21% | 34 → 42 | 10 Dec | +23% |
| Intercede (IGP) | -20% | 41 → 42 | 17 Mar | 0% |
| TT Electronics (TTG) | -20% | 50 → 55 | 15 Dec | +11% |
| Intertek (ITRK) | -18% | 69 → 41 | 3 Mar | -2% |
| Spire Healthcare (SPI) | -17% | 58 → 42 | 3 Dec | -21% |
| Judges Scientific (JDG) | -16% | 42 → 32 | 22 Jan | -11% |
| Bytes Technology (BYIT) | -15% | 47 → 40 | 24 Mar | +16% |
| Accesso Technology (ACSO) | -14% | 61 → 86 | 5 Jan | -8% |
Performance to 8 April 2026.
All profit warnings and major misses tend to see a price crash. No surprises there. The "since" column measures from the already-crashed price - so some of these are dead cat bounces. Across all 63 negative signals this season, the average return since the announcement is just +2% - which might look like a recovery, but not a single one of the top ten fallers above has recovered back to its pre-announcement price.
A Nod to the Team
I want to give enormous credit to the team behind the Daily Stock Market Report. All the above is impossible without their exceptional daily analysis.
Graham Neary has anchored the team and the report with 250 analyses across 76 days. Roland Head has been right there contributing 198 analyses over 55 days. Mark Simpson has brought his insights on 107 occasions, and we even blooded Dr James Fox for his debut analysis a couple of weeks ago. And if you sign in on Friday, you may see another new face too.
This is a team of highly experienced CFAs, IMCs, ex-fund managers and published authors - but more than this, they are real stock market investors. None of us should take for granted that this kind of hands-on daily forensic analysis is rare. So I do encourage you to give them kudos in the comments below or more importantly in the comments on the daily reports.
And I'll let you in on something - we're currently working on a pretty major project to improve and expand our editorial capabilities. We're excited about where it's going to lead. This article is a taster of what becomes possible when you have structured, searchable data behind every single company announcement. Do stay tuned.
What Have You Spotted?
In the above analysis, I've focused on my own biases - I like to snuff out the big movers on earnings momentum "beats" and "misses". I don't always get the time to read every daily report, but I know many of you do. You may have spotted far more nuanced observations of pivotal strategic or management changes that may help others in the community find the big winners.
So which companies have caught your eye this reporting season? Which company statements have most excited you? Which results have most surprised you? And more importantly - how did you do through Q1?
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.
49 comments
Great article I wish I had read earlier. Thank you.
Excellent read . The trick is in timing of the entry to try and max the opportunity
Only just got round to reading this. What a great article - thank you. Thanks also for the excellent comments from the Stocko community. What a fund of knowledge and expertise we have here. Thanks for sharing.
Hi Ed,
Interestingly I hold Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) and have top sliced and added back at various times. I also hold Volex (LON:VLX) and again have sold and bought back at various times. First buying some years ago at 90p ish. and finally I have a decent position in Zotefoams (LON:ZTF), although unlike Peter Kenyon at Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) and Nat Rothschild at Volex (LON:VLX) CEO Ronan Cox holds very few shares which is a black mark from me, although from a strategic perspective I think that he has positioned the company very well.
I admire ShoeShine Boy's approach, mine is somewhat simpler. My first focus is on debt, thereafter I ask myself three questions and I don't always get them right.
Borrowing from some of the greats:
I do like a dividend although not essential. Also I like management to have decent holdings in their company
For reasons of a personal view or lack of knowledge I don't invest in biotech, mining, oil and gas exploration, munition /arms, and tobacco. Each to their own.
Regarding companies that have caught my eye and with the above questions in mind I would proffer ME International (LON:MEGP). To my mind it was just too cheap at 130p given the investment metrics forecast earnings and yield. I bought after re-listing and added at 130p
Fintel (LON:FNTL) Again a share that was and still is too cheap in my view. Couldn't believe that I could add at 159 having originally bought around 195p. Matthew Timmis, CEO holds close 4 million shares and had been adding recently. The company continues to trader in line.
Restore (LON:RST) What a great job, Charels Skinner has done since his return. The shares in my view remain absurdly cheap, despite reporting ahead of expectations. The management team continue to buy the shares. Charles Skinner holds around 1.7 million. To paraphrase Christopher Mills the company continues to gather dust and cash. I have added to recently.
Avingtrans (LON:AVG) Here I am very much singing from my own song book. I have held the shares and added to over 4 or 5 years. It is my largest holding . I am an admirer of the management team, aka the "two Steves". Given the recent announcement referencing the runway for growth in the Advanced Engineering Division, plus the potential of the Medical Division (Adaptix, Magnetic and Scientific Magnets) which is currently loss making the share price is not overly expensive. I would be surprised if it doesn't increase by some margin in the next year or so.
Just my tuppence worth and I may off course be wrong.
All the best
Enjoyed this and added the thumb tick to the handful expressed . Value and quality in plain sight .Rob
I usually post on the Investment Trust thread as my employment restricts any trading so by default, I'm a long term investor who likes quality, value and dividends: investment trusts, ETFs and insurance companies. But I can foresee a day when I will be able to spend more time looking at individual companies and won't need line manager and compliance approval to buy and sell. This will allow me to move more quickly when bad news hits at 7am and also try to take advantage of opportunities that arise at short notice.
I really like the weekly Stockopedia email, it's excellent as it focuses on the main movers of the past week. Thinking about Ed's article back in Jan-25 on the "Drift Effect", I decided to note down the main movers from the weekly emails. My very basic analysis is below.... ticker, RNS date and the wording that appeared in the weekly email plus the SP movement. I have included the StockRank and Mkt Cap as some of the below may be either fluke/temporary results from poor businesses (ie: businesses with low StockRanks) or they are irrelevant because the shares are illiquid (I have heard Christopher Mills of Harwood Capital say this at Mello a number of times so if it's difficult for an established investment trust to buy and sell, I don't think my chances are much better).
Difficult to draw any definite conclusions from such a limited data set (limited time period and population criteria plus this is all happening through a volatile geopolitical period) but as someone who is only interested in quality, I will do the following (I am thinking out aloud a little here)....
# Keep using the weekly email to understand the good new stories.
# Limit the population via mkt cap (only focus on mkt caps > £250m ?) and StockRank (this will help to filter out any lucky, temporary winners).
# Understand whether the most recent results are one-offs or the latest in a series of upgrades. The DSMR will help on that.
# Apply Paul Scott's balance sheet criteria to help remove any businesses that are poorly funded:
Rule 1: Positive Net Tangible Assets (favour companies with lots of freehold property, lots of cash, no bank debt, no pension deficit & no other large creditors).
Rule 2: Current ratio >1.3 (1.5 is comfortable & 2.0 is very comfortable). This is a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations or those due within one year.
Rule 3: Companies window dress their balance sheets at year end by delaying supplier payments etc so check for large bank balances whilst at the same time having large bank debt suggesting the cash balance is not typical.
# Think about whether any future personal buying and selling is a short term trading activity or a longer term investment process (I feel more comfortable with the latter).
# Find a way of automating the below. I want to spend my time reading, not manually typing numbers into a spreadsheet.
I have been engrossed in Stockopedia since subscribing. Have gone into the Naps, and in the last week it has really shown resilience to the instability of the Middle East, which was very good. Stockopedia is indeed an amazing tool. Ed Croft has built an amazing platform all credit to the whole team.
I am sure this is almost a cliche question now, but have you/the team found any AI related developments for Data Analysis tools for Stockopedia to be useful?
"anything housing sector related appears to be struggling with rate gloom"
Not everything though.... Luceco (LON:LUCE) posted results ahead of expectations. I hold.
You say there have been 42 profit warnings since the start of December 1st and show the top ten biggest 1 day declines above. All 10 have a Stock Rank of 80 or lower. Do you know how many of the other 32 had a Stock Rank of 80 or above?
Thanks for this analysis Ed. It will be very useful if you can find a way of helping subscribers screen for these signals.
I see that Healthcare has 12 Ahead signals and only 2 warnings — A 6:1 positive ratio, better than any other sector. Is it possible to list the Ahead Healthcare companies please?
Thanks Ed. Things that caught my eye were Vodafone (LON:VOD) steady slow ascent, unaffected by Trumpian madness, and Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT), new flavour of the month. I nibbled at things that got hammered with the bombing (International Consolidated Airlines SA (LON:IAG) ; Thor Explorations (LON:THX) ; Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) ; ASA International (LON:ASAI) Watkin Jones (LON:WJG).
Overall Q1 I am up 2%. Smashing it....
Doctor Dave - yes Vodafone has been a dream in the NAPS - for the last couple of years. It's been beautifully smooth trending - and yes SSIT has been on a tear.
I'm going to follow up with some more smooth trend analysis, likely at end June - as they've done so well and they tend to pick up a different class of shares to the "big jumpers".
Cheers Ed, yes for me Vodafone (LON:VOD) is very reminiscent of Currys (LON:CURY) a couple of years ago. Thoroughly unloved and almost derided stocks making steady recoveries occurring slowly and in plain sight.
Ed,
It would appear that the 1st Ahead Jump is more powerful than repeat Aheads. With >80% repeat negative outcome, could repeat Ahead signal reversion to the mean in the current market?
Also delighted to hear about the new data, can you expand please on when we might see the; "structured, searchable data behind every single company announcement"?
It's a steady roadmap - can't make any date promises. Have learnt not to!
Excellent piece - it's easy to get sucked into stocks because they have fallen (but on bad news). In my experience institutions do not touch things that disappoint. Life is too short, you don't have to get everything right - just move on. And don't ignore good news just because the shares rise. Perfect timing with this too. I think the next few months will be difficult for company news, but the above shows the misses aren't that significant in number but the shares can react badly. I think investors are well schooled in staying away from bad news....but happily sit in the middle ground "in line " where nothing is really happening. Great work, thank you.
Thank you all. I subscribed to Stocko a few months ago, and I've read every single report and stock pitch since then. Your work is by far the main reason why I'm subscribed!
Yes, the Stock Market Report as become really good, good to look back on as well. Stockopedia has been really good for me. Brilliant stuff. Thank you all. Also like the knowledgeable subscribers with their insights. I rely a lot on Stockopedia metrics, like other subscribers say they do, so all these insights are very good. Once again, thank you team Stockopedia.
Didn't Goodwin (LON:GDWN) fall 49% or so on profit warning day?
Yes, of course - good spot! There will definitely be some gaps in my analysis.
While Goodwin (LON:GDWN) certainly behaved like it had warned, the TU of March 23rd was actually inline with expectations.
The mechanical engineering division was slightly behind & the general negativity of the RNS sent the stock tumbling. I’m not sure that the managers who drafted the TU quite expected the reaction they got! I suspect they’ll be slightly more informed going forward (I hold)
Thanks Ed & team,
I always enjoy these deep dives into the data and over the years I've tried to find ways to capitalise on the insights.
The candidates that pop out of my QM Growth Blueprint Screen have often beat expectations at their last announcement and then continue on in that vein. And they can continue to deliver for an extended period. For example the average holding period for my 21 double baggers or better is 762 days. If readers would find that list useful then please let me know and I'll post it here.
For me the key to finding stocks like this is not StockRank because when a stock pops post earnings announcement and continues to appreciate the ValueRank struggles which in turn pulls the StockRank down. For me I think it's GM or perhaps QGM for extra confidence. Certainly my QM Growth Blueprint screen turns out candidates with high GM ranks. I'd love to see TopRanks data and Performance data published for GM & QGM.
Keep up the good work and excited to see what comes next.
I would be interested in seeing your list please Phil.
I am glad you mentioned TopRanks data and Performance data published for GM & QGM. I always assumed the list was available but I just couldn't find it.
As others have said, thanks to the team for the daily reports and also to Ed for constantly evolving what is already so good.
Here ya go.
Right click on the image and select "Open in a new tab" to get a bigger verrsion
I’m trying to get my head around your inverting system, Phil. I looked at some stocks on your list and noticed that you continued to hold them when the price was under Ichimoku Kumo. I believe your rules state that you sell if the stock falls below the Ichimoku. What am I missing here?
Hi GenX,
I do normally sell under the Kumo UNLESS the associated index is in a "Bad Regime". The rationale is:
I'd suggest you watch the QM Growth Blueprint playlist. For more specific detail about my attitude towards Bad Regimes please have a look at these videos:
I hope that helps
Phil
Thank you very much, Phil. I really appreciate your comprehensive reply. Will check out your YouTube channel videos.
I"d love to see the magic 21, Phil, hope others agree! Cien has been frighteningly extraordinary
Yes I looked at it again yesterday. The various markets are creeping out of their Bad Regimes and I'm nearly ready to start buying. Cien is one of the few that has escaped consolidation, is setting new highs and is going to open up again today. Still going to be qutie bumpy I think
Screen returns no stocks
Yup no candidates in the UK at the moment
IG Design (LON:IGR) I have been watching this and think there are some interesting developments. As well as posting the ahead RNS they have since announced the sale of a warehouse for 3 million pounds, on their books for £100,000, which should add to their profits in the next results, in addition they have had approval at an EGM for capital reduction, they have a new CEO and there have been substantial changes in shareholder ownership with a couple of funds selling some of their holdings and another institutional investor buying, (probably dragging on the share price) and the NTAV is somewhere around 0.5. (I hold)
Thank you for this. As a team you really are firing on all cylinders and I am now using your discussions area daily where before I never looked at it. Thank you to you all, I am finding it really interesting.
Very interesting and thought provoking article which I intend to follow up on going forward. Would be interesting to follow up on in six months time and see the changes.
Hi Ed. Big fan of Stockopedia and all the valuable insights.
I don’t believe it’s possible to screen for significant changes in the ranks where I believe there is real alpha to be found. I’m currently doing it quite manually but it’s time consuming. Any chance a” change in rank “ screen facility could be produced?
Hi Revs,
Does this help:?
https://www.stockopedia.com/sc...
If you look towards the bottom of the home screen, you'll find various stock rank movers, click to see all and you 'll find screeners for them.
Jon
Hi Jon,
Thanks for the info. That is what I am doing currently.
I have a screen that I can manually search for stockrank or value changes but you have to put the limits in manually. For example the one above is for SR moves from below 90 to above 90.
What I'd like to search for is for a stock rank change greater than 10 for example and any level. Same for Momentum, value and quality.
My theory is that significant step changes can indicate changes in a companies prospects (often due to a new report or sudden surge in volume).
As an author I know that writing one of these stock reports is hard work, doing several is a major achievement. The authors deserve a lot of praise.
On a side note, I wonder if anyone has tried to combine the DSMR colour system with the stock rank. For example how do those who are GREEN and have a SR > 90 perform? An obvious analysis that would be very useful.
Thanks Ed, this is very interesting. Is it possible to screen for these signals in Stockopedia? eg. Includes 'Ahead of expectations'
Not yet ;-)
You can screen for earnings surprise (i.e. how much a company exceeded EPS estimates at last announcement) which might help, but not sure how well it's covered across various regions,
Phil,how do I find this earnings surprise information please.? Love the idea and would make me look very closely at such information! I currently look at EPS growth data and act accordingly sometimes.
Hi Derek,
In the screener type "surprise" in the box and you'll see it as one of the options. If it equals zero expected EPS were met, > 0 then it's an earnings beat, < 0 is an earning miss.
I hope that helps
Thank you for that.
you can also add it as a field in a table view, using the Customise button on the portfolio or screener view
What would be fantastic would be for the team to pick this up in their daily summaries if it arises and we would benefit from that being included. Yes I am a computer illiterate!
What you need is a Power User who produces free educational content!
Hmmmm I wonder who does that? ;-)