Quindell: A great British innovator and job creator now with FY13 forecasts

Steamy, well done - 2014 looking v. positive.

I haven't ignored the derampers - I've listened, researched, and come to the conclusion that they are wrong. If you go back to the "red flag" issues raised in May, they really were quite ridiculous. My personal favourite has always been that the company will not collect it's debtors, because Accident Exchange failed to, and it's this kind of lazy assumption that has been easy to dismiss with a bit of research.

The company generates strong feelings in both directions, and I don't expect those that have decided they don't like it to change their minds, ever. And I'm fine with that. I in turn wouldn't touch Helphire.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) has delivered me a 48.2% return since May 28 2013 when I wrote the original article.

I have ignored the derampers, I have ignored the rampers also, I have really spent time to understand Quindell myself, along the way I have had nagging doubts, cash conversion being the biggest worry, this is being improved constantly Quindell are ahead of plan.

When professionals tell you to research yourself - LISTEN
When other private investors say DYOR - LISTEN
When so called experts fail to listen to both bear and bull - IGNORE THEM

To the 25,395 reads this thread has had, I hope its helped you a little to make your own minds up.


Quindell in 2014 are very likely to see EPS 4.5p (raised from an estimated 3.6p), £80m-odd up cashflow, and £400m-£500m wins about to be announced very soon, a pending FTSE 250 inclusion and maiden dividend, things do look bright for Quindell investors.

I for one remain confident for now in a bright future and further gains to be made on Quindell.

Steamy.

Who knows one day Paul Scott may even change his mind, he did recently on Helphire so stranger things happen, avoid those red flags all.

Steamy,

that research note is commissioned by Quindell. and clearly the positive cash flow outlook is tempered by the need for a club banking facility?

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) Progressive Equity Research just issued


Quindell is changing the face of the UK insurance industry. The group brings consulting expertise, software platforms and outsourcing infrastructure to a world historically not known for flexibility and pace. We describe how regulatory change has added to both the confusion and the opportunity. Quindell has its detractors, and clearly the high-growth strategy is not without risk, but the group is attempting to alter, and thereby profit from, a number of extremely large and lucrative markets. These strategies could generate, over time, material shareholder value.

To read more http://www.progressive-research.com/tearsheet/quindell-portfolio

An interesting commentary on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) by crafty specu. 21 Oct on another board.

Two small but very important points In the Outlook section:"Across its two divisions, the Group has a total pipeline of business in excess of £1.5 billion and it is now clear that in due course, the opportunity to deliver a billion pound plus business generating significant profits (long term guidance of EBITDA margins of over 25%) with associated positive cash flows is within the Group's grasp, subject to leveraging the significant market lead available to Quindell.

The Group is therefore investigating the opportunity to accelerate the adoption of its collaboration model to include legal services and reviewing club banking facility to further increase its debt facilities and other debt financing options to allow it to exploit the opportunity this pipeline represents in parallel with its ongoing Full Listing process.

"The key points which most folk have overlooked"

1) Quindell have a 100% conversion rate on their projects. They have a pipeline TODAY of £1.5bn, with EBITDA guidance of over 25% (which now look conservative). So £100mn of EBITDA already underpinned, plus £375mn coming.... so not far off £half a billion EBITDA.At a fairly mundane 10x multiple that leads to a market cap of £4.75bn, or 6.48x the current share price, or £1.10. So don't laugh too much at the folks who predict £1, or takeovers around that level...and with a PIPELINE of £1.5bn that is not the sort of pie in the sky we see with some companies. How many other AIM companies have a £1.5bn pipeline

(2) Quality of earnings and cashflow: There is absolutely no way that Quindell could be reviewing the club banking facility to further increase its debt facilities and other debt financing options unless the underlying cash generation momentum was palpable to funders.Banks aren't into risky lending any more, yet it seems they are eager to discuss extending facilities to QPP. That tells me that those earnings are high quality, that the risks in the business model are perceived to be lower from the debt community than the equity community. That says a lot. In a post banking crisis world I actually trust those badly burnt banks to stress test the DSCR of Quindell much harder than any of us equity holders. And if the world's largest insurers are happy with the collaboration model, and the world's largest banks are happy to lend, and one of the biggest auditors on the planet is happy to sign of the accounts as a true and fair view of the business, then who am I to pretend to know any better.Based on industry knowledge, I also believe Quindell are in a sweet spot - hitting the market with a completely unique, superior offering, at just the right time. That's why the growth is spectacular. 

I know that telematics are the future of motor insurance, and the fragmented nature of the claims processing cycle is the reason why most folk have a nightmare experience when it comes to claims ( fault or non fault ) So alas, I'm now holding until the market cap of QPP hits 5 billion GBP, before reviewing my holding.In today's short term world that probably makes me an investor.

What more can you say than Organic Growth doubts buried for Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) well done to Rob Terry and team at Quindell.

Officially a midcap, no more small cap commentary.

Dont miss the big Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) article by Steven Frazer ?@SharesMagSteve

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) @Quindell PLC is coming... @SharesMag 'Griller' feat in next week's 10 Oct mag, don't miss details of my chat with founder Rob Terry http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/

Well, rightly or wrongly, Ive just grown too weary of the waterfall of paper being issued by the company. This month has seen what, 4? deals. To me the execution risk is now just too great, especially when one considers the company has done deals in various geographies. With all the lock ins there is going be a very big constant drip of stock on to the market in the future. So, I may be making a mistake I will regret but for me I just get a very sick feeling that this is a ticking time bomb and so a good gain has been taken.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) has acquired further shares in Nationwide Accident Repair Services plc (AIM:NARS.L) ("NARS"), the largest dedicated provider of accident repair services in the UK, increasing its shareholding by 2.8% to 25.3%.

£qppl Outsourcing Expansion into North America
· Extends presence in the North American insurance market

· PT Health to be centralised outsourcing platform, lowering cost of claims for insurance industry in Canada
· Opportunities to drive significant volume from existing Quindell partners through PT Health

· Investment and acquisition option highly accretive

Quindell Portfolio Plc (AIM: QPP.L), the provider of sector leading expertise in software, consultancy and technology enabled outsourcing in its key markets, being Insurance, Telecommunications and their related sectors is pleased to announce a 26% investment and option to acquire PT Healthcare Solutions Corp ("PT Health"), a leading provider of healthcare and rehabilitation services with over 100 physiotherapy and rehabilitation clinics across Canada.

Background and investment rationale
PT Health delivers healthcare and rehabilitation services across a range of disciplines from its 100+ clinics throughout Canada. Approximately 15% of its 10,000 sessions a day are due to insurance related incidents, including rehabilitation following accidents. The management accounts for the year to 31 March 2013 for PT Health showed turnover of circa C$77 million and EBITDA margin excluding exceptional costs in the region of 10% despite having more than one-third spare capacity available within the business to support additional volume.

As PT Health does not generate a significant amount of its profit from motor vehicle accidents this provides the opportunity for Quindell to enter the market. Quindell can do this by bringing volume from and leveraging its relationships with its partners, including the Insurance Brokers Association of Ontario (the "IBAO"), helping the industry to stamp down the cost of claims in this area in Canada as it has in this area in the UK, targeting a year-one saving of 20% to 30% compared to industry averages for the at-fault insurers and their broker partners. Consumers will benefit from the best customer care and service experience based upon a multi-disciplinary approach to rehabilitation and PT Health will benefit from efficiency improvements and streamlined billing, improving already strong cash generation, by using Quindell technology to automate processes and provide direct links to brokers and insurers.

The terms of the initial 26% investment in PT Health were satisfied by the issue of 31,551,270 Quindell shares.

The investment announced today by Quindell will therefore enable the Group to benefit substantially through the provision of additional cases to PT Health, with PT Health being used as the base from which the Group's outsourcing services within Canada, and in due course into the USA, will be further developed organically. As a result, the investment and potential acquisition detailed below are expected to be slightly earnings enhancing in the current year and significantly earnings enhancing in 2014 and beyond due to the brand's own organic growth (which is warranted by the vendors) and due to the significant additional volumes that Quindell will be able to provide which will be at a high incremental margin due to the significant capacity that exists in PT Health's business.

Put and call option
In addition, Quindell has agreed a put and call option with the vendors of PT Health enabling Quindell to acquire the remaining 74% at any time up to 1 April 2014 and, conditional upon a business plan being presented that demonstrates that PT Health can achieve a warranted EBITDA of C$12.0 million and C$9.0 million operating cash inflow for the year ending 31 March 2015 (in the majority organically and without benefitting from volume from Quindell sources), enabling the vendors to require Quindell to purchase the remaining 74% on 1 April 2014. In the event that PT Health misses its warranted profit or cash target, the Group will receive compensation from the vendors in the form of cash equal to the greater of seven times the shortfall relative to either target.

The above acquisition of the remaining 74% is to be satisfied by the issue of up to 242 million Quindell shares ("Option Shares"). The Option Shares, representing approximately 6% of the Group's issued share capital, will be subject to lock in of between 12 and 36 months from the date of issue.

Quindell already has existing relationships with leading insurance companies and intermediaries within Canada whose members directly or indirectly distribute approximately 60% of insurance in Ontario, including a five year exclusive agreement with the IBAO. Together, the Boards of Quindell and PT Health are extremely confident following discussions with a number of core industry participants in the Canadian markets, including the IBAO, that insurance related revenue can be grown rapidly during 2014 to utilise the additional capacity available within PT Health. This will improve margins at PT Health to a level at or above the Group's long term guidance as the majority of the staff and infrastructure necessary to provide this additional volume is already in place.

Rob Terry, Founder and Executive Chairman of Quindell said: "We are thrilled to announce our investment in PT Health at a time when we are seeing real traction in the Canadian market. This investment and potential acquisition is in line with our core strategy of only paying for the existing business we acquire and not for the effect we can have on those businesses by bringing additional volume or improving it with our technology, thereby underpinning significant earnings growth and strong return on capital for our shareholders. The investment metrics supporting the acquisition are therefore already strong, but our agreed consideration will be close to a ratio of two times profit before tax if we can deliver on providing the additional volume already identified with our partners. We have been able to provide volume from organic new business wins for many of our acquisitions in the UK already, driving significant accretion in earnings for our shareholders through this combination of acquired and organic growth, and are confident of the team's ability to do the same in Canada for PT Health."

Mark Cho, Founder and President of PT Health said: "PT Health and its founding clinics have been one of the fastest growing health care companies in Canada over the last 18 years, with the provision of our services and patient care centered on the principles of integrity, passion, and trust. We look forward to working in combination with Quindell and to addressing together the insurance market with our combination of services.

Randy Carroll, Chief Executive of IBAO said: "We are excited by the prospect of being able to work with Quindell to actively promote their rehabilitation solution that will have a fundamental effect on stamping down the cost of claims whilst delivering excellent service to consumers. The high cost of providing rehabilitation following a motor vehicle accident is a significant issue for the Canadian insurance market, and there is a clear need for someone to provide an efficient and effective service. Quindell's outsourced services are exactly the kind of initiative that is needed in the market place and we look forward to leveraging them to the benefit of consumers, our brokers and the insurance supply chain as a whole."


Application has been made for 31,551,270 shares to be admitted to trading on AIM. Admission of the shares is expected to occur on 3 October 2013. Following Admission, Quindell will have 4,308,864,075 ordinary shares in issue. The Company has no ordinary shares held in treasury. The total of 4,308,864,075 ordinary shares may therefore be used by shareholders in the Company as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or change in their interest in, the share capital of the Company under the FCA's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) eyes contracts bonanza. New business could provide launch pad for substantial rerating write shares magazine.

http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/quindell-eyes-contracts-bonanza#.UkPL7T8TV6I …

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) shareholders movments

The following fund have added QPP to thier portfoilio of investments

Another new fund holding shares in Quindell Principal International SmallCap SP 7,728,410

Van Eck Associates Corporation have increased their holding from 2,997,065 now holding 5,111,097

Quindell Portfolio PLC (LON:QPP)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by investment analysts at Canaccord Genuity


What’s new?
Quindell has announced “the first of several major contracts for telematics expected to be announced by the end of the year”, a C$6m contract with the Insurance Broker Association of Ontario (IBAO). Should telematics take-up in Canada rise, as expected, to 10% over the next three years, the contract could be worth around C$70m per annum to Quindell. The company has also announced a 5-year outsourcing contract in partnership with the IBAO which has the potential to double the aforementioned revenues. Separately, Quindell has increased its investment in UK-based telematics insurance specialist ingenie from 19% to 43% and also acquired 40% stakes in two new ingenie offerings, the extension of insurance to over 25s in the UK and the launch of its solutions in Canada. The combined consideration is £8m in cash and 71m new shares based on a valuation of £50m for ingenie.

Impact on the Canaccord Genuity view
In our initiation note of 25 July (“Challenging convention”), we identified telematics not only as a major revenue driver for Quindell over the next few years but also as a vehicle to internationalise the business in a rapidly scalable way, as well, perhaps most compellingly, as a means to improve the profitability and working capital profile. This morning’s announcements, together with a high degree of confidence that other similar contracts will follow in relatively short order, show that the company has already made significant steps down that road. It is our view that telematics will have a highly disruptive impact in the motor insurance industry in the coming years and that Quindell has established itself as an early pioneer in that
space. We await further announcements with interest.

We are not altering our estimates at this stage but believe that today’s
announcements provide a greater degree of comfort with regard to those forecasts.

Valuation
While the share price has increased by c.70% in the last 2 months, the rating of less than 5x FY14E earnings clearly suggests a high level of scepticism remains about Quindell’s business model. This morning’s announcements and the prospect of more to come should help to allay that scepticism. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and 41p Quest™ based price target

I notice this statement in todays recent contract win regarding IBAO in canada

"The warrants shall be exercisable at any time by the IBAO's wholly owned subsidiary during the next 24 months or until Quindell's AIM listing moves to a full LSE listing, if earlier."

does this indicate that a listing might be further away then qpp had been indicating?

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) qualifies for Greenblatt's Magic Formula today.(in Quality Investing).

Magic Formula Investing is a value investing strategy based on buying 20-30 "good, cheap companies" defined as having the best available combined ranking in terms of earnings yield and a return on capital. 

This makes this the third positive stockopedia guru screen that Quindell is featuring on. to read more on the latest screen http://www.stockopedia.com/screens/greenblatts-magic-formula-1/

Very interesting.

Experian upgrade the credit scoring of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP)

Experian have updated their Delphi Score Change on Quindell the credit risk score has changed from 89 to 100 on the 14th August 2013 the day the accounts were filed.

Delphi Credit Change The credit rating has changed from £670,000 to £750,000 and credit limit has changed from £1,700,000 to £2,300,000


Someone rates this company A Delphi score of 100 you can't go any higher.

Steamy

Will Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) be included in the FTSE 250 review on the 11/9/2013?

Would be interested to hear any views on the impending move off AIM to a main listing?

A user on III has published an email from Rob Terry, a useful piece of information. Level 2 looking very strong today.


Email from Rob a couple of days ago

Good Evening *****
I am sorry for the delay in replying but I have only just got back from Canada. At this stage I can not add anything more on our full/dual listing plans than was already including in our half year results statement other than things continue to progress at speed and that our business continues to set new records for organic profitable growth.

A lots seems to be being made of accruals which is quite surprising as they where also discussed in our half year results and compared to the growth in revenue of legals services (which was very significant) to demonstrate the level is very comfortably in line with our growth and more than in line with the trend of trade debtors days of improving settlement periods.

Legal services will always show high accruals as you can only bill at the end of the case, but this is totally normal for any law firm and has never been an issue in the 60 year history of Silverbeck Rymer (our first core legal acquisition) and remains in line with the approach always used by that firm and other leading law firms public or private."

Updated listing of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) shares owned by funds and institutional investors.

Merrill Lynch International                                                        195,324,528
Investec Asset Management                                                   175,293,151
AXA Isle of Man Limited                                                           135,050,000
AXA Life Europe                                                                        44,655,114
STANDARD LIFE INVESTMENTS                                                43,144,000
Cazenove Investment Fund Management                                  42,850,983
Hargreave Hale Limited                                                              32,210,918
F&C Asset Management PLC                                                     27,439,420
Miton Capital Partners Limited                                                    26,562,040
Lloyds TSB Investments Limited                                                21,495,648
Premier Fund Managers Limited                                       16,057,355 have also increased their holding by adding 4,057,355 
Ignis Investment Services Ltd                                                    11,184,547
Marlborough Fund Managers Limited                                           9,168,000
J.P. Morgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd.                          7,823,574 purchased during July.
Insight Investment Mgmt (Global) Ltd                                           6,759,886
Slater Investments Limited                                                           6,580,054
Frankfurt Trust                                                                             4,000,000
TIAA-CREF Investment Management LLC                                    3,824,164
Reyl Asset Management                                                              3,407,228
Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss                                        3,203,120
Smith & Williamson Inv Mgmt Ltd                                                  3,198,275
Van Eck Associates Corporation                                                2,997,065
Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF                                        2,997,065
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited                                   1,945,586
Global Investment Selection                                                         1,940,000
Techinvest Limited                                                                       1,895,000
Friends Provident Plc                                                                   1,463,250
Russell Investments Limited                                                            892,258

Sources are Company RNS's, morningstar

steamy

We are a discretionary house so it is not a fund per se but total for clients individual holdings. The position is in the same region as Slater/Insight.

Updated listing of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) shares owned by funds and institutional investors.

Merrill Lynch International                                   195,324,528
Investec Asset Management                              175,293,151
AXA Isle of Man Limited                                      135,050,000
AXA Life Europe                                                   44,655,114
STANDARD LIFE INVESTMENTS                           43,144,000
Cazenove Investment Fund Management             42,850,983
Hargreave Hale Limited                                         32,210,918
F&C Asset Management PLC                                27,439,420
Miton Capital Partners Limited                               26,562,040
Lloyds TSB Investments Limited                           21,495,648
Premier Fund Managers Limited                           12,000,000
Ignis Investment Services Ltd                              11,184,547
Marlborough Fund Managers Limited                    9,168,000
Insight Investment Mgmt (Global) Ltd                    6,759,886
Slater Investments Limited                                    6,580,054
Frankfurt Trust                                                      4,000,000
TIAA-CREF Investment Management LLC             3,824,164
Reyl Asset Management                                       3,407,228
Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss                 3,203,120
Smith & Williamson Inv Mgmt Ltd                           3,198,275
Van Eck Associates Corporation                         2,997,065
Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF                 2,997,065
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited           1,945,586
Global Investment Selection                                 1,940,000
Techinvest Limited                                               1,895,000
Friends Provident Plc                                           1,463,250
Russell Investments Limited                                    892,258

Sources are Company RNS's, morningstar

QPP are to also be listed on the ISDX Exchange ticker QPP.PZ and the US OTC exhcange ticker QUPPF

This is confirmed by bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/QPP:PZ

&

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/QUPPF:US/news

thanks steamy
you post a lot of good info, so difficult to tell the difference

Thanks DJL - that seemed to work.

Can you or Steamy explain what the telematics black box referred to on page 16 does - it seems an important component of expected revenue growth.

Hi Steamy - just tried looking at the broker update. I can't read it - it's very blurry. Seems fitting.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) Canaccord Genuity’s broker update

http://dcms.canaccordgenuity.com/ResearchNotes/887d841c06d248c68d1b3d96d6074dd9.pdf

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) added to list of OTC CLEARED SECURITIES preparing for listing on NYSE or NASDAQ

DTCC provides clearance and settlement services for virtually all trades done on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ as well as on all regional exchanges and electronic communications networks (ECNs) in the United States.

The building blocks for NYSE & or NASDAQ listing to allow QPP stock to be traded.

To read more http://tinyurl.com/ormfc8s

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) delphi score improves by a big margin.

Experian Delphi Score Change The credit risk score has changed from 50 to 89. 20 Jul 2013

Delphi Credit Change The credit rating has changed from £57,000 to £670,000 and credit limit has changed from £85,000 to £1,700,000.

A strong rating by experian.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) Rated New 'Buy' at Canaccord Genuity


Thier notes says

"Re: Rating Quindell Portfolio UK and European Research | Buy | Target 41p | 25 July 2013Technology - Software & Computer Services - Computer Services Challenging convention Investment case We believe that the investment community has yet to grasp either the scale of the opportunity facing Quindell or the material competitive advantage that the company has established through the construction of a fully integrated claims processing supply chain. The current valuation of just 3x FY14 earnings and less than 2x FY14 EV/EBITDA implies that the market is convinced that either Quindell is in danger of running out of money or the business model is fundamentally flawed. The market is wrong, in our view. If it genuinely is the case that Quindell has hoodwinked the investment community, it has also managed to pull the wool over the eyes of virtually every top ten UK insurer and their auditors, all of which have not only conducted extensive due diligence on the company but also perform ongoing monthly checks.Sector context Over the past two years there have been several major changes to the insurance industry dynamics and regulations that have opened the door for a disruptive business model to challenge the status quo of claims processing. Quindell has quickly established itself as the largest claims processing outsourcing and telematics solutions provider in the UK. It will be hard for a competitor to replicate what Quindell has developed and constructed in the motor insurance claims market.Company fundamentals Quindell has a broad portfolio of solutions and services, principally serving the motor insurance industry but also to other segments of the UK and North American insurance market such as property and travel. The company generates the majority (c.80%) of its revenues through the handling of legal, medical and hire & repair cases for non-fault claims. Around 20% of revenues come from the sale of software licences, mostly on a SaaS basis, together with associated consulting and integration fees.Valuation We initiate coverage with a 41p price target, implying upside of c.300%. This is in line with the adjusted Quest fair value and equates to just under 12x FY14 earnings or 8x EV/EBITDA, still a discount to its quoted peers. A perhaps more realistic short term target is the default Quest value of 19p, itself close to double the current price, valuing Quindell at a highly undemanding FY14 P/E of 5.6x. Buy.Share performance catalyst Quindell has a pipeline of deals with an estimated in excess of £500m. Given the 100% win rate thus far, we would be surprised not to learn of further, potentially materially, contract wins before year end. Interim results are on 19 August."

This follows a increase in the share price at yesterdays close with further increases at the opening bell this morning.


Steamy

Steamy,

Once again you provide great balance ...

1) QPP still qualifies for the Short Selling Screen as well as just qualifying for the Bold Revisions Screen
2) Please can you enlighten us as to why this chart suggests the stock will rise?

Looking forward to your analysis.

Phil

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) chart looks set for a rise

http://www.stockopedia.com/charts/technical/?Code=LON%3AQPP&Span=90&Size=L&Type=2&OVER%5B0%5D=&OVER%5B1%5D=&MAType%5B0%5D=EMA&MA%5B0%5D=200&MAType%5B1%5D=EMA&MA%5B1%5D=50&MAType%5B2%5D=&MA%5B2%5D=&IND%5B0%5D=MACD&IND%5B1%5D=Vol&IND%5B2%5D=StochRSI&IND%5B3%5D=&COMP%5B0%5D=&uniqueID=550&endDate=2013-07-24%2013:21:00

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) qualifies for Bold Earnings Revisions Screen (in Momentum Investing).

According to Stockopedia ratings system today Quindell qualified for this guru screen,

Stockopedia say "This screen seeks to identify stocks that have experienced recent revisions in the earnings estimates. Specifically, it looks for stocks that have seen one analyst revision in the last week/month, to try to see if there is an analyst moving away from the consensus. This follows research that showed "bold" estimates like this have a significant impact on share price performance. "


To read more on this trading strategy http://www.stockopedia.com/content/earnings-estimates-revision-screen-why-investors-should-keep-an-eye-on-consensus-sales-and-eps-forecasts-58456/

Steamy.

Hi,
I am a cautious investor in QPP. This is one of those risk reward situations which can be slightly scary but if you don't take it and it comes off you will regret it, given the time one has spent reviewing it. I totally agree the history of the industry is disappointment and this is where the risk lies, cash flow and debt collection. However the Board do hold shares, the process is saving insurance companies money and they are duly supporting it, the business addresses a recognised need and my particular style is contrarian which makes this sort of situation naturally interesting as there are a lot of doubters out there. In truth only time will tell and there comes a time to put up or shut up, so I am in.

There is a piece in the FT stating that it has cost Quindell up to £6 million to exit from its equity swap deal that it used to raise £17 million from the issue of new shares.

That seems a very expensive way to raise £17 million. Hopefully Quindell are better at managing other aspects of their business.

may be if somebody is going to todays teach in they can ask the paul scott question reference debtor days.

After all if this is a key reason for failure in other companies in this sector, than addressing it should be a KPI for Quindell.

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) trading update highlights.

Quindell Portfolio plc (AIM: QPP.L), a provider of sector leading expertise in software, consulting and technology enabled outsourcing in its key markets being insurance, telecommunications and other related sectors, is pleased to announce that the Group's KPIs are in line or ahead of half year expectations and guidance.

Cash flow
Ø Adjusted operating cash flow3 for the half year significantly ahead of expectations and guidance with £2.3 million inflow compared to guidance of £15-20 million outflow during significant growth in H1

Ø Operating cash outflow (post exceptional costs) of £2.6 million
Ø Cash at 30 June 2013 also significantly ahead at circa £35 million
Ø In anticipated scenarios for H2, the Board guides delivery of significant adjusted operating cash inflow
Ø Most optimistic cash flow scenarios include opportunity to significantly exceed full year expectations

Exit of Equity Swap
Ø Quindell exits equity swap by using equity swap shares as part of investment consideration

The  cashflow stats and guidance really answer the critics.

Steamy, just one question, are you invested in anything else?! Hate to think you are all in on this one company.

By the way, that chart does look good for now, trend looks positive. At some stage there is likely to be profit taking from those riding this wave up who aren't as committed long term as you. It will be interesting to see if support levels then hold.

 Quindell March support zone at 10p reclaimed.

Some doubted  Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) on being able to rebound properly above the 8p level, or break back above 10p, yet here we are at 11p, and looking at the 200 SMA and the recent uptrend since the 1st teachin we look strong to reach 12.7p by the month end.

Steamy
 

Hi, it actually had nothing to do with non-public information (as far as we can tell). The user in question just accidentally posted a blank message and was presumably trying to delete it - to avoid confusion, the message has now been removed. Cheers, M

Having missed the two subsequent posts, one of which I was trying to reply to

"re. Quindell: A great British innovator and job creator now with FY13 forecasts
posted on Tue Jun 25 at 22:41 by PhilH
What does 'moderated for non-public information' mean?"

I'd suggest Phil that you contact Murakami to establish exactly what that moderating comment means as regrettably I have no idea. I could hazard a guess but.......

I now understand that unless your a Paul Scott fan then there is no room on Stockopedia to comment!!!! Forgive me for trying.

Paul Scott has only very recently joined Stockopedia though - they've been around for at least a couple of years whilst he was over on TMF so a tad erroneous in that premise of yours. :)

Don't give up posting purely on that assumption.

I don't think anyone is doubting that based on the earnings figures released that Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) looks cheaply priced. What is in question is the quality of those earnings i.e. the proportion of them which will eventually end up in shareholders' bank accounts.

So spending a lot of time comparing the earnings of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) with other companies is pointless. We all agree it looks favourable on those ratios just that the figures that make up those ratios may not be a true reflection of the underlying cashflow generation potential of the business.

It would be much more useful and convincing if you spent you time looking into these aspects of the business like how Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) can take over marginally profitable businesses and immediately report high earnings for these revenues. Until this is explained or we see several years of cashflows that match earnings only the most naive of investors are going to value the business on earnings ratios so any more analysis of this type is pointless.

After 10,000 reads we are still waiting for real issues to be addressed!

Danger (no position)

Quindell show steady rises after first teach in.

I have today decided to look at Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) and using the tools on Stockopdiea to compare Quindell with similar companies withing the sector at around the same market cap.

The companies I chose to compare against were Anite, Blinkx, Innovation as they are all in IT/computers/services sector with similar market caps. 

First of all I looked at the basic information today's Market Cap, Enterprise Value , Turnover for FY13, With Innovation clear winner on turnover, with Blinx with the highest market cap.

I then went onto to examine Forecast Valuation & Growth metrics such as P/E Ratio,EPS Growth %, PEG Ratio Quindell a clear winner on all three.

Next area to compare was Quality Ratios such as Return on Capital %, Return on Equity %, Operating Margin %, Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) cam out top on Return on Equity % and Operating Margin @ 30.8% with Anite coming second with only 18%, the fortunes were rreversed on the Return on Capital % with Anite at 23.5% and Quindell runner up with 15.5%.

Finally I went on to explore Historic Valuations of P/E Ratio, EV/EBITDA, Price to Sales, Price to Free Cash Flow, Price to Book, Price to Tangible Book, you guessed it Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) cam out top in four of the five measurements.

To view the complete comparision click here

Total scores with Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) the clear winner with a whopping 73.33%, are they a cheap high growth share to own, that's for you to research and make your own mind up, but for me this is yet more evidence that supports my personal investment in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP).

Zak Mir predicted the original  down turn on QPP share price through his analysis, Zak Mir recently identified the upturn in fortunes ahead of any other commentators, and the stock price has started to regain that was lost, judging my the volume of activity on these articles, now surpassed 10,000 reads I guess many private investors are taking a long hard look at Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP).

Steamy

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser. Read all you can and take in all sides of the discussion.

Steam001 -
Play the ball and not the man. Please.
Ram

Paul Scott typically comments on RNS's so no reason he would comment on a recovery to just over 2/3 of the pre results price. We still wait to see if the concerns he (and others) raised prove to be the case or if the debtors are just very very long in their game. The jury is still very much out.

steamy was anything mentioned about the move to full list status that's planned for later this year.

So Steamy - for a Teach In did you learn how this high margin business generates high margins from Ai Claims which it recently acquired when in y/e June 2011 it had turnover of £117m and an operating cash flow of er ...£0.5m?

And why do 3 of the slides reference the financial figures of acquired companies from the years ending in 2010 and 2011. I guess the answer might be found in the fact that Slide 11 clearly seems to have been written over a year ago and not updated. Seems odd.

Quindell Teach in number one completed.

After spending the morning digesting the teaching presentations the most import slide to me that reinforces my faith in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) was slide 79. pic.twitter.com/1FSzdDgyhh 

 It cements my view on the delivery of the Quindell forecasts for FY13 and beyond and they predict and I expect them to beat them,  I don’t suppose it a coincidence that the share price has broken through the 9p resistance point the day after the teach ins with volumes heading towards a two week high.

I remain long and very bullish.

Steamy

Surely this an unwelcome precedent, any major client will also now want freebie warrants and thus they get a chunk of the upside - if any- with no downside risk but at the expense of equity holders who are 100 % exposed to the downside but with a diminished share of any upside?

Not holding but fascinated to see the mighty profits being achieved from such mundane businesses.

I seem to recall Independent Insurance looked similarily wondrous , lets hope the story here unfolds differently.

Cheers

Yes, this is an option to buy at 13p.

This has to be seen alongside the 5 year contract with RAC. From the RNS:

"This contract, which is significant from day one, has the potential to be the largest contract that the Group has entered into to date as revenues grow during 2013 and beyond."

The granting of warrants ensures that it is now in both their interests that this contract performs well.

Intuitive, Quindell have secured many contracts over the past 12 months, on merit; this is the only one where such an incentive is attached.

Personally, I'm happy with a 6% dilution at 13p in exchange for (a) £32m cash, and (b) a 5 year contract with such a significant client, which in turn will draw further clients towards Quindell.

As I see it the RAC do not have to pay anything.

If the share price does not rise above 13p then the RAC  can presumably chose to let the warrants lapse.The warrants would be worthless - but this shouldnt worry the RAC as they seem to have been given them free?

If the share price rises above 13p in the defined timescale then the RAC apparently have the option (but not the obligation) to acquire 250 million shares at 13p and dilute existing shareholders. They may of course decide not to exercise the warrants even if the share-price rises to 13p. In short the warrants give the RAC a low risk no cost bet.

From a business perspective I am a little surprised that Quindell seemingly have to offer these kind of incentives to secure business. I would have hoped that their products and services would be good enough win contracts on merit.

Surely this isn't share ownership by RAC, but rather an option to buy at 13p.

RAC do have to pay for the shares in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) as confirmed by a fellow BB user direct with the company.


Marky55 17 Jun'13 - 10:13 - 9369 of 9369 0 0
Just to clear up whether RAC pay or receive for free - I asked Laurence Moorse:

Mark
Yes, RAC do have to pay. As announced on 3 April 2013, the exercise price is 13p per share.
Regards

Laurence

QPP what a FRIDAY afternoon


Never a dull moment on this share, RNS this morning, broker update this afternoon http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130022765 (not independent) and now the Daily Mirror promoting Quindell legal services http://www.mirror.co.uk/features/personal-injury-claims-find-out-1946738

I wont harp on, it does seem like an unstoppable force.


Steamy

The research quoted is clearly not impartial

Daniel Stewart - On page 23 of the report in the link Daniel Stewart lists 11 connections with Quindell. Furthermore they state that “Daniel Stewart does not hold its research out as being impartial”

Cenkos – Clearly states in the disclaimer “This communication is NON INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AND A MARKETING COMMUNICATION”

I don’t think that this can be much clearer. All three research reports on Quindell discussed on this thread are not impartial/independent. Potential investors should perhaps take note of this rather important fact.

Quindell's success is confirmed by the annual report 

Over the last few weeks and days, many share commentators would have you believe  that Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) is the modern day, corporate equivalent of the Emperors new clothes. They have trotted out anything they can find, to cast as much doubt as possible, on the validity of this Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP). 

The latest point raised was that of company loans, I have addressed this issue and provided clarity which can be checked at the AGM at the end of the month by any shareholder, I have also challenged the critics to comment and after four days we have no response to my loan article @ http://www.stockopedia.com/content/quindell-a-great-british-innovator-and-job-creator-now-with-fy13-forecasts-73640/?comment=58#58

Look who actually has put their money where their mouth is. These are in the know QPP company directors and the largest institutional shareholders. Would Merrill Lynch & Investec really buy 9% of the company if it was one big white elephant? Of course not.

 Robert Terry: 684,000,000 16.82%
Merrill Lynch International: 195,324,528 4.80%
Investec Asset Management: 175,293,151 4.31%

Directors:
Jason Cale: 81,499,729 2.00%
Steve Scott: 76,594,884 1.88%
Laurence Moorse: 17,850,000 0.44%
Robert Burrow: 15,775,000 0.39%
Anthony Bowers: 1,337,415 0.03%

So to sum up 

•  Lots of indivduals with their own money invested
•  Some big Institutions with their Clients money invested
•  Only Director buys
•  Major organisations outsourcing their entire claims handling

To quote another BBmoron invested in £QPP  “and to think people were claiming it was a ponzi scheme and a cash shell likely to go bust within a week – jokers”

 Steamy

 Do your own research and read all sides of the discussion, and make your own mind up when investing, I do not recommend, I am just bring balance to the discussion on the bull side.

Quindell Cheap as Chips versus Guidewire and Innovation Group

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) appears to be misunderstood my the market with its share price languishing at 8.5p, its clear that the natural competitors that Quindell are competing and winning against for contracts within the insurance sector are $TIG and Guidewire, so why is is their models are understood yet Quindell's isn't?

Lets look at the revenue of each company as detailed in Table 1.

From table 1, it clear that Quindell provide a clear growth story, but revenue is for vanity so lets look at forecast income.

This is not made up data, its all publicly available, Quindell can be bought today for the basement bargain price of 8.5p per share or £345m if/when FY14 targets are met that would be  payback in 2.78 years. 

Ask yourself this question is a company (Gudewire) that is projecting £16m profit really worth £1.44 billion the reverse physiology  look at Quindell's forecasts are they really worth £345 million.  I won't mention Innovation (LON:TIG) other than to say them and Guidewire combinded don't look threating to Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP), they both really need to address thier net profit margins, no room for errors or losing contracts to QPP.

Matters regarding the EFT and loans have been cleared up, teach ins for Institutional investor  and an AGM where all investors can address their fears, in my opinion when this corrects itself it will be steep and fast.

Please do your own research, please check  and above all make your own choice on this one.

Steamy

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) executive board structure changes

Whilst reading the last few RNS I noticed a small but important change in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) executive board structure. Rob Terry is now the Executive Chairman, and the Group Chief Operating Officer position is now held by David Sandhu

The RNS about the Honda contract dated 29th May Stated "Robert Thomson, Chief Executive Software and Consultancy Solution"
http://quindell.com/investor-relations/regulatory-news/19-latest-news/latest-press-releases-rns/540-three-year-contract-with-honda-uk

Then on the 5th Junes RNS about the £25 million per annum new contract it says "Rob Terry, Founder and Executive Chairman" http://quindell.com/investor-relations/regulatory-news/19-latest-news/latest-press-releases-rns/542-major-contract-


This is also confirmed by the details on page 7 of the recently reported annual report. http://quindell.com/images/uploads/irdownloads2013/20130706_QPP_FYE2012.pdf

page 16 gives more detail

David Sandhu (aged 43) Group Chief  Operating Officer  

David became  CEO of Ai Claims Solutions in 2006,which now forms part of Quindell’s services division, having previously been Group Managing Director from 2005 and Director of Claims and Operations.Prior to joining Ai in 2000, he spent twelve years working in the claims teams of a number of insurers including Bishopsgate, GRE, AGF and Fortis, specifically dealing with complex claims. In the two years prior to joining Ai, he was responsible for  Fortis policy on Credit Hire. A statistician by background, David has a particular interest in Operational Research and he is also an executive member of the CHO and a member of the ABI GTA Technical Committee. Following David’s  appointment as CEO of Ai Claims  Solutions, revenues and profits grew exponentially from £37m in year ending June 2006 to £118m in 2011.

This is a hugely positive step.

Steamy

You know it was very useful to re read the borker report this morning, it reminded me of a small section of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) and £RAC jiont offering, here is the extract from the broker report

"Brand Extension. RAC clearly has an unquestionably leading brand in the motor sector as well as a strong balance sheet. The RAC is therefore, given the market opportunity created  by the Jackson review, trying to market their “claims services” to other insurers. The RAC receive “income” for each consumer they successfully convert into Quindell’s claims process (branded RAC) and looking at “paying away” some of this income (per consumer claim) to other insurers and organisations to capture the volume in the RAC/Quindell claims supply chain. Current discussions are focused on high street banks, retailers and major corporate fleets but there is a substantial opportunity for both the RAC and Quindell
if these initiatives are successful."

I wonder how long before Tesco (LON:TSCO) or or J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) join forces with this formindable setup.

Tesco insurance cover  http://www.tescobank.com/insurance/carins/index.html?atlassource=paid&cmpid=search/Google/Brand/Car ,  Sainsburys inusrance http://www.sainsburysbank.co.uk/insuring/car-insurance.shtml?source=NETGOOGLCARIEM010002&WT.srch=1&gclid=CK_dsuvS27cCFQTHtAodwS4AYw.

Lots to think about.

It’s worth noting that GECR were commissioned by Quindell to write the research. This is probably the only important point for potential investors to grasp. I personally think that most broker research is very poor, so for me when the company pays the researcher to write the document - it goes straight in the bin. For the record Quindell also commissioned an earlier research note by GECR in Sept 2012.

fingers crossed the teach ins clarify a few points, and the agm may help too. though i hope there isnt too much of a rose tinted view of the company there.

Steamy,

the bears have gone quiet! That's their nature, most investors who don't like a stock simply don't invest. A few go short and do make a noise, but when I last looked there wasn't much shorting activity on QPP. Shorting is a dangerous game, you can be right and still lose a packet. To anybody thinking of taking up shorting stocks I'd recommend they firstly read "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time" by David Einhorn. And you shouldn't worry about shorters too much - at some point in the future they're the only people guaranteed to be buying your shares.

I made a decision many years ago never to invest in insurance related businesses because I've never worked in the industry, it's technical and complicated and I don't understand it. Simply put - I have the opposite of an edge, I'd be the mug at the table.

But QPP is fascinating. In a very short period - an explosion of profit growth and head spinning acquisition activity. As an investor I find it fascinating and educational watching from the sidelines. So, I've looked up a few things and I think it wouldn't be too controversial to say the bearish view arises from uncertainty. Is it really this good? So, I thought I'd check a few things.

Over the weekend I put a post on this site about a recent (May) RNS announcing the acquisition of Quindell Property Services Ltd for a consideration of c65m shares initially and a further 190m shares if certain targets are met between 2013 and 2015: this detail from the RNS was confirmed in the company's recently released accounts. As I stated the odd thing here is that according to the incorporation docs filed at Companies House in February it was the founding shareholder in Quindell Property Services Ltd. So, I don't understand that.

The RNS then states the consideration terms, basically a lot of shares in QPP now and a shedful in the future if the "property group" meets certain profit/cash flow targets of £22m. Now if I was a shareholder I'd be figuring that I'm entering into a transaction where I'm buying £22m of pretax profit but I don't know what I'm paying as there was no announcement about a cap. For example, if the non property related side of QPP shoots the lights out and the share price hits £1 and the property side just scrapes its target. The target based consideration hits £190m for £22m of (pre-tax?) profits. Well if I'm in at 8p and out at £1 I guess I'd take that, but ... hey it ain't great business. Is it?

The RNS doesn't identify the vendors.

It doesn't identify the other companies that its bringing together in the "property services group" other than 360GlobalNet Ltd which seems to be a video streaming company, which last filed total exemption small company accounts at Companies House! Perhaps there was no room to list them. But the RNS does list 360's founder's previous companies.

So, in one RNS there is, for me, so much uncertainty. But it's compounded by the fact that the Board seem so keen to promote QPP's share price performance (see the front of its accounts for example) which is counteracted by such an obtuse RNS.

Lastly, I can't work out where the huge increase in profits comes from but guess it's to do with the "legal related services" in note 5 to the accounts. That's fine, but when I look at the revenue recognition policy in the accounts I can't see anything for "legal related services". That is a big uncertainty for me. I've learnt the costly way tto look at revenue recognition policies.

To be honest, Steamy, I think if your timing is good you might make a few bob on your investment. It's winning contracts and generating cash.

But for me it's outside my circle of competence and Warren Buffett told me not to go there. Good luck.

Silence of the bears

Interesting isn't it, when they are pushing misinformation they are everywhere to be found, posting articles and the minions de-ramping across the bulletin boards.

In the words of football fans is it too early to sing?

And it's all gone quiet over there,
And it's all gone quiet over there,
And it's all gone quiet,
All gone quiet,
And it's all gone quiet over there...

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) is a great company, the current share price is only where it is because of the bear attack knocking PI confidence, when called upon to discuss the very loans they bring into question we hear nothing.

Focus on this
- Contract wins don't lie (and more to come)
- Led by someone who has a clear vision for what he is trying to achieve
- Will move off AIM to main listing
- Will pay a maiden dividend early next year.
- When compared to Innovation (LON:TIG) and Guidewire is now so cheap its laughable.

Happy investing.
Steamy

Quindell the BULL versus the BEAR (bear has gone quiet)

5 hours ago

I tweeted Tom Winnifrith to engage in a discussion on twitter about the loans situation in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) as he had previously been very vocal.

Here is the tweet
@TomWinnifrith as a bear on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) do you have any comments on this article I have written?
http://www.stockopedia.com/content/quindell-a-great-british-innovator-and-job-creator-now-with-fy13-forecasts-73640/?comment=58#58

After 5 hour still no response.

Regards
Steamy

I believe an earnings upgrade is due, basic reasoning as follows.

Revenue per quarter:

Q1 2012 - £11.8m
Q2 2012 - £33.8m (QoQ growth £20.0m)
Q3 2012 - £50.1m (QoQ growth £16.3m)
Q4 2012 - £76.2m (QoQ growth £26.1m)

Average quarter-on-quarter growth was £21.5m, so extrapolating this to Q1 2013 we might reasonably expect that revenues were approximately £95m - £100m.

This was more or less confirmed in the Q1 trading update, which stated EBITDA had exceeded £25m with EBITDA margins in excess of the 20 - 25% target.

So with run-rate revenues of around £100m per quarter pre- 1st April LASPO reforms, the company have since concluded terms with RAC and announced numerous material contracts which combined should have pushed Q2 revenues past £125m, which will grow again into Q3 as the more recent contracts scale up.

On top of this, there will be incremental revenues from the early 2013 acquisitions.

The company is therefore on track to comfortably exceed Cenkos's most recent estimate of £442.3m revenues in 2013, which explains why the company's internal target (for options) is now 3p as opposed to Cenkos's estimate of 2.5p.

I therefore expect further earnings upgrades after the Q2 results in July.


More importantly, though - cash flow.

I believe Cenkos have been consistently conservative on cash flow forecast. For 2012, they estimated operating cash flow of £22.6m, and the actual was £34.1m (51% higher)

For 2013, they currently estimate operating cash flow of £33.9m - EBITDA conversion of just 26%. But we already know that the company had successfully collected two-thirds of Ai debtors by end of April, and that new contracts are signed with faster collection of cash in mind.

Operating cash flow for the 4 quarters of 2012 were:

Q1. £2.9m
Q2. £6.4m
Q3. £8.8m
Q4. £20.7m

As with revenues, there is a clear pattern here. To suggest that 2013 should fall back to levels around the Q3 £8.8m level is, I believe, very wide of the mark. Again, I expect to see estimates revised, albeit still conservatively.

I would like to say thank you for all those that have taken time to read this, passing 5500 readings of this article is truley amazing, the expressions of thanks I am getting from private investors for bringing balance relied on by facts to this share is overwhelming.

To all Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) shareholders, good luck and keep firm
Steamy.

Great, so they're borrowing money to pay the the previously unrecognised tax liabilities of the vendors of Quindell Ltd?

Quindell the BULL versus the BEAR

In the December 2012 year end annual report and accounts for Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) on page 14, clearly stated are the words “During the year, the Group made loans to other parties of £15.1 million”

The bears would lead you to think that these loans were suspicious, something to worry about, they look for something to make you and me the BB morons nervous, they want us the private investors to panic and sell.

Bears create concerns over nothing with misinformation and not facts, I am a small private investor that operates on facts I research and check my information very carefully.

The bears rely on the fact that the average private investor won’t check facts for themselves, THEY SCAREMONGER as they have something to gain by driving the share price south and you facilitate it. They will tell you time and time again that they hold no position, and I believe this to be true. However for those writing the negative press do have gains to make, they get press coverage and that attracts a paid following, once these commentators are on the negative side there is a real reluctance to change their stance.

The loan is clearly listed in the Consolidated Cash Flow Statement on page 29 which confirms £15.1 million was lent out.

NOT HIDDEN, Do not listen to the bears read the report if you doubt me.

The loans were loans made during the year this does not mean they remained outstanding at year-end as is being implied by the bears. Remember bears create concerns over nothing with misinformation and rely on your fear.

My source has confirmed my understanding that not all loans remained outstanding at the year-end. FACT 

My source then went on to confirm. “Loans outstanding to third parties in June are now less than £3m, all others are now settled, the loans nearly all related to businesses Quindell now own completely” FACT

At £15m or £3m as we stand in June anyone can see the level outstanding is hardly significant, especially when compared to Quindell’s cash and the balance sheet strength of Quindell. FACT

The purpose of these loans was to provide funding assistance to Quindell’s investments when they required additional funds to support their organic growth whilst working with Quindell ahead of completing an outright acquisition.

When you think about it, Quindell identify an acquisition, agree a deal, work with them to identify significant growth opportunities and assist with funding organic growth, safe and sound and secure in the knowledge that they are in fact only loaning the monies to themselves ultimately and clearly there is nothing wrong with this.

If any shareholder asks a question at the AGM on the 28^th of June 2013 reference the loans, they will be certain to find out my understanding is correct and there is nothing untoward.

Remember bears create concerns over nothing with misinformation and rely on your fear. Do no repost their articles any longer and don’t comment on them you as that will just encourage them.

Steamy

Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) Coming soon the truth about the loans, the bears will not want you to know the truth.

For now I will enjoy the sun with the knowledge I have is making me GRIN.

I am feeling extremely bullish and want some bear roasting on the BBQ

Steamy

wow, thanks steamy001 for your input on this one.
as i said above i have bought into this (at roughly current prices) as a contrarian buy , but am now feeling much better about it, if the cash is being collected. To be honest im surprised it hasnt went back up to a higher price re-reading the rns, but that might just take time for people to forgive and forget the messaging thats happened previously.

interesting the connections, and i see that it would be possible to socially engineer a situation given those links, but in this case they were only exploiting the information at hand. If the BoD were to have worded things differently & been a bit clearer about some facts (or just had more experience in these matters) this situation may not have been allowed to happen. Paul scott thought this was a big risk at first, mentioning this on a daily basis but as events have unfolded he seems to have changed his opinion on this a little too, and he can read accounts properly!

Small world as I spend time researching Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) I look into the positive and the negative sides.

Did you know GECR is a subsidiary of t1ps.com which are a subsidiary of Rivington Street Holdings Plc

GECR have written reports on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) http://www.quindell.com/images/uploads/irdownloads2013/20130419gecr.pdf
the contacts at GECR are andrew.noone@gecr.co.uk & emanuil.halicioglu@gecr.co.uk

they quote a target price of 40p

clear so far?

Who writes lots of negative articles about Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) ?

Answer = Tom Winnifrith = http://www.shareprophets.com/ amongst others

Guess who used to work at Rivington Street Holdings Plc, you guessed TW

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/news/business/tom-winnifrith-quits-1-4721618

Reading RSH webite i found a bit in thier history "Several highly paid members of the original management team that implemented the disastrous expansion strategy also left the business."
http://www.rivingtonstreetholdings.com/about-rivington-street-holdings/our-history/

Were they referring to Tom? proablby not

Small world his (TW) old employer writes positive stuff and he promotes the negative

Oh another funny connection Evil Knievil (otherwise known as Simon Cawkwell) is Britain's most feared bear-raider reports for T1PS thats Evil Knievil the infamous shorter. Tom often quotes EK and his shorting activities

So we have the same company RSH who own T1ps & GECR one writes the great report on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) and T1ps writers declare a short.

The question I have is

Does Rob Terry know all about these connections i guess he has looked into it as they keep quoting his past?

I am not saying any of the above is a bad thing or a good thing, just it an incestous circle or am I seeing things?

Comments welcome

Buried at the back of the accounts is a note stating that the company indemnified the majority shareholders of Quindell Ltd against any tax liabilities arising from QPP's acquisition of Quindell Ltd back in 2011. The indemnity was given a nil valuation in the 2011 accounts - but has now been assigned a £3.2m value and is being treated as a prior year adjustment.

I wonder if Investec have seen that?

What do Investec see in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) that your missing.

Philip Rodrigs Located in: London

Philip is a portfolio manager for the Investec UK Smaller Companies Fund and is a Services sector specialist in the 4Factor UK Equity team. He holds the award for Investment Week UK Smaller Companies Fund Manager of the Year 2011 and for 2010. Philip joined Investec Asset Management in 2005 as the primary analyst for the UK Smaller Companies Strategy and was promoted to portfolio manager a year later. Prior to joining Investec Asset Management, Philip worked for T. Rowe Price as a Pan-European Associate analyst, where he was the primary analyst covering small and mid-cap stocks for the International Discovery Fund. Philip began his career at Invesco in the Pan-European equity team, where he quickly found a preference for analysing small and mid-cap stocks, and has specialised in this area ever since. Philip graduated from Lincoln College, Oxford University with an MA Honours degree in Economics and Management. He is a CFA Charterholder.

Under his management Investec have purchased 175,293,151 shares in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) , to read more to add to your own research http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/i/investec-uk-smaller-companies-income

So if you want into Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) in and ISA this is possible via Investec 

http://www.investecassetmanagement.com/united-kingdom/upload/pdf/UK_Smaller_Cos_-_Screen.pdf

Regards

Steamy

like a lot of people i seen the initial news as being the massive revenues. but a long list of recievables.
Since then there has been a lot of good news for the new contracts, ive yet to hear them say anything about being more agressive in collecting these funds outstanding currently and the ones they are proclaiming about to really redress the ballance between paper profits, and actual cash being generated?

I bought into these on the strength of the volume of contracts, as i see it as more positive then negative, but i would be happier if that issue was addressed publically by the company somehow.

We have arrived at the point in a shares life that it must decide.

UP or Down. here is my take on today's chart action on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP)

We have a long term up trend since December 2011 which is providing solid support at the current level of approximately 8.8p

We have a conflicting downward trend since Dec 12 that converges on the 8.8p support line.

This chart says to me the price will be heading back to 14.65p, is it does not then I expect to see sub 8p very soon.

So make your mind up and get on with it.
Steamy

On wards and upwards for Quindell.

Lots ofbuying all morning at less than the mid price, resulting in 'sells' being reported.The LSE needs a Rob Terry system to help them accuractley report?

My favourite part of the annual return fout today for Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) is Rob Terry statement

"“This is the second year that the Group has delivered strong results, exceeding market  expectations in every key performance indicator. We plan to continue on the same
path, looking to grow organically with new clients, to add more services to existing ones and actively seeking out value-enhancing acquisitions that are focused on our
target market. The Board is confident that we are very well positioned for continued growth in 2013, expects to rapidly progress our move towards a full listing. It is the
Board’s current intention to pay a maiden dividend to shareholders in early 2014 in respect of the Group’s performance for year ended December 2013.”

Steamy

hi looking through the report, on page 5, it states "The Board remains convinced that its strategy must
be implemented to completion while the opportunity remains to take advantage of regulatory change
and while we still have the flexibility on AIM to take advantage of this window."
It then talks about full listing in 2013, barely 6 months away.

Can somebody explain to me what advantage AIM has for them, over a full listing with regard to their strategy.

many thanks

The annual report for 2013 is now available for Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) at http://www.quindell.com/images/uploads/irdownloads2013/20130706_QPP_FYE2012.pdf

According to Morningstar

the following funds have been buying shares in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP)

Given my research in Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) to-date and the recent Honda announcement and todays contract win I have topped up my holding by a further 67,550 shares,using my SIPP I am looking to bag those profits tax free, it did seem rude not too at such a ridiculously low price, I do hope to see more Directors buys coming along soon.

I am looking forward to reading the full annual report and wondered if anyone has the date of release yet?

Some facts about shorting on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) according to squaremile data, who gather info on short for all companies state on their site that

Only 21,648,400 shares are on loan for shorting out of over 4 billion shares issued, this is a measly 0.87% not even 1% of the shares in issue, notorious shorter EK has long gone in my opinion, if EK was still shorting he would be shouting about it, this will be either large holder hedging their positions or a few die hard followers of EK that don't yet realise he left the building!!! I do stand to be corrected by EK if I am wrong.

Good luck which ever side of the fence your on.
Steamy

DYOR but just located the report from broker Daniel Stewart who have been paid by the company in the past to report in past.

5 JUNE 2013 Quindell QPP (FTSE AIM All Share) 9p BUY (TP - 34p)
Company: Daniel Stewart
Further Outsourcing Contract Win

Quindell today announced it has signed an initial outsourcing contract with a large UK broker to 31st March 2014, with run rate revenues of over £25m per annum. The contract in addition to the seven significant contracts signed over recent weeks will increase Quindell’s run rate revenues c.£100m per annum from July 2013, further underpinning our forecasts for 2013.

The broker, who has a broad product range including auto, property and commercial, will use Quindell’s end to end proposition of a complete technology enabled supply chain offering for personal injury claims, medical reporting, multi disciplined rehabilitation and auto accident repair.

The stock continues to trade on an undemanding multiple of 4.1x FY13 earnings a significant discount to other software participants in the market.

We reiterate our buy recommendation and 34p target price.

More clarity on today's contract win by Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP)

From todays Cenkos note :

Contract with Large UK Insurance Broker

Quindell Portfolio Plc (QPP, 8.8p, £350m, Buy, Cenkos Brokership) have announced that they have entered into an initial 9 month outsourcing contract with a large UK insurance broker. The contract has a run rate of over £25m per annum with potential upside. The broker offers a broad range of products including auto, property and commercial and the deal covers Personal Injury claims, Medical Reporting, Multi Disciplined Rehabilitation plus Auto Accident Repair, including Vehicle Hire Services. In addition, QPP is indicating today that they have signed an additional c£75m of contracts across a range of smaller companies and that they expect these contracts "should together increase the Group's run rate revenues in the region of £100m per annum from July 2013". Today’s announcement therefore certainly underpins our FY13e outsourcing revenue forecast of £390m and divisional EBITDA of c£101m (QPP have reported c£25m of Group EBITDA in Q1). We would expect these contracts to have the typical margins (c25%) and working capital profile (c6 month funding cycle) of most of QPP's insurance outsourcing deals. The shares are trading sideways post the final figures and ahead of a series of capital markets days presentations which start on June 18. A base 10x multiple of our well supported 2.5p a share FY13 EPS forecast supports a return back to highs (18p) over the summer and fundamentally we believe management has built a business model that can support a valuation of twice that (another catalyst in our view will be a FY dividend which will increase confidence in the cash profiling of the business).

Guidewire continue to fall from the all time high $43.73 they have now fallen since I wrote this article to a low of $38.90, 11% fall in a matter of days, investors stateside are clearly not impressed by the 3rd quarter loss posted, even though this was above forecast, looking at the chart I would expect Guidewire continue to fall until they hit $32, what effect will this have on Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) ?

Well Guidwire are stil valued at 1.1 billion more than QPP, read the main article, something is very wrong with the very low price of Quindell and Guidewire is still overvalued in my opinion, interestingly Innovation (LON:TIG) continue there share price decline, maybe the tide is turning in the favour of Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP).

One analyst today rated Guidewire.

Guidewire Software (GWRE) rated Buy with price target $50 by Deutsche Bank

http://dlvr.it/3RYYWm

It did make me wonder how much is Quindell worth, when will the penny drop, still to those that have the mental capacity to understand the Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) business model will enjoy happy days buying at these low levels.

Since writing this report Guidewire share price has dropped to £ 25.69 and the market cap reduced to £1,450,381,441

Read my last thought on Quindells contract win with Honda, and take a look at Quindell Portfolio (LON:QPP) and Innovation (LON:TIG) & £gwre forecasts,

http://www.stockopedia.com/content/who-is-the-real-growth-company-in-this-sector-73668/?submitted=2#2

RAC are a major client of QPP, advertising their new services which Quindell are behind, the best customers shout rom the roof tops about your services, this endorsement could not be better.

Link to article
http://www.rac.co.uk/press-centre/press-releases/rac-launches-new-accident-management-service-with/

Institutional investors data gathered from official RNS

Institution holding % last purchase Date
Merrill Lynch International 195,324,528 4.80% 17,325,286 14-May-2013
Investec Asset Management 175,293,151 4.31% 15,548,502 16-Jan-2013
AXA Isle of Man Limited 135,050,000 3.32% 11,978,935 31/jan/2013

Corrected as i copied the wrong lines on my mobile while on holiday.

Steamy

This is not my work, to read the orginal http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AQPP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=10636439



Haven't posted here for a long time. I was Finance Director of a medium sized regional general insurance broker for a few years. The one thing that struck me during that time was the incredible waste of greasy money on the claims side of the business. We were constantly being bombarded by companies who claimed to do elements of the claims side of things - non fault hire, car retrieval, at fault processing, legal processing, claims assessment, garage repair chain networks, medical assessment, telematics, call handling etc. The whole referral fee side of things struck me as being wholly unethical - the sale of at fault/no fault leads to the legal profession, via intermediaries, who pay for the referrals by dressing the backhanders up as sales and marketing contributions.

My understanding was that underwriting made little or no money for brokers and underwriters in the UK, other than a few small niches. The real money came from the referral fees and ancillaries. Basically profiting on people's misery / misfortune. The Jackson review confirmed this.

The general public don't realise that in the good old days, insurers made a wee bit of margin on sensible underwriting (rather than chasing business at any price) plus float income - the money they made by placing customer premiums on deposit, back in the old days when bank interest rates were > 5%. Oh, and to make matters worse, the software used to manage customers and claims is like something built in the 1980's before windows was even invented. Horrible stuff, error prone software, peddled by vendors who care more about their license fee than modernising their products.

I sometimes wondered if anyone would ever emerge from this sewer filled world of "providers" to create a truly integrated end to end offering to the underwriting and brokerage industry, for a price, without the greasy misery money.

I have been following Quindell quietly for some time now - courtesy of a write up in SCSW tip sheet. I have watched how Quindell have been putting the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle together under one umbrella, and am impressed by the way Rob Terry has structured deals with vendors, and the goal congruence in heavily warranted deals, using paper as the primary consideration, rather than cash or debt.

Declaration: I have bought 400,000 shares in Quindell during the last 10 days, as the price seemed to bottom out at 6p-7p, and the fundamentals screamed "Buy" to me.

I know that with general insurance margins so thin, and no prospect of cyclical change, Quindell presents the industry with a serious proposition - taking costs out of the claims cycle by offering customers an end to end solution. I know for an absolute fact that the demand is out there. Every deal Quindell do will put additional pressure on the rest of the pack. Every deal done doesn't just prove the demand, it means that the next deal will be easier. The insurers will become like wasps to the jam pot. I expect the scale of deals to get larger and longer.

The biggest risk for Quindell is integrating all the acquisitions so that the software integrates, and the implementation teams sing from the same sheet. Execution risk is the only material risk.

The recent share price wobble concerned me until the company clarified the situation. I then reflected on it and thought that this could be a perverse positive. It puts a halt on any new acquisitions for a while, and it also means that many of those previous business owners are now likely to have to wait a bit longer for their equity to get back to the levels they expected when the original deals were done. Turning short term paper profit into long term commitment is a great help in building a great company. The profit warranted by the vendors doesn't fall away like the share price!

So here's how I see it in the round:

The Positives:

- latent demand
- unique offering
- Massive addressable market
- Clear USP
- 100% customer conversion rate
- Fundamentally cheap, based on any financial metrics (EBITDA, EPS etc)
- Led by someone who has a clear vision for what he is trying to achieve
- Will move off AIM to main listing
- Rob Terry stepping back a little bit from the limelight to allow others to lead

The negatives:

- Volatile share price / target for shorters
- Lots of issued shares - need to consolidate?
- Integration challenges
- probably a hard business to understand for anyone who has NOT worked at a senior level in the insurance sector

While US listed Guidewire is overvalued, Quindell is just far too cheap. I think we will see a string of contracts signed through the remainder of 2013, with EPS guidance heading north of 3p. When the dust settles and the contracts roll in, the company will obtain a growth rating. I strongly believe that everyone will look back with amazement that this share was, for a short time, under 10p during 2013.

That's my industry call. Each to their own and their own personal agenda.

See you in 2014 at 40p per share

Crafty

It’s disappointing that we seem to have three different listings of major shareholders for Quindell. One would have thought that this information was fairly easy to keep up to date. Apparently not.

Regarding Quindell’s position versus competitors. The Celent 2012 awards list a possible 18 suppliers of claims systems with SAP and Guidewire scooping the honours. SAP won in three out of the four categories. There was detailed analysis of 10 of the suppliers including Quindell who seem to be rated somewhere in the middle.

The research was apparently conducted after interviewing customers though in some cases only one customer gave a review, which in my opinion is quite a small sample for such research.

The report also gives some indications of the relative costs to insurers of each of these 10 suppliers. As DJLJ23 states, the cost could be quite different depending on what package the client purchases.

For the record I am neither long or short here.

Steamy

As of this morning, the FT site shows only one institutional investor above 3%. As Paul says that is Investec at 4.38%.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Business-profile?s=QPP:LSE

A poor reputation is difficult to get rid of. QPP needs some good (respected) non exec(s) to join the board, we might then see some investors taking them more seriously.
I think they have a good product idea, and as suggested by other posters I would have expected Honda, etc to have done significant due diligence , especially given the recent issues, before signing up.
Clear factual news releases would help as. i'd like to see them produce figures substantially ahead of expectations, rather than keep talking up the potential and then miss them.
Regarding the acquisitions I think I noticed that the last one seemed to have historic connections and does make me concerned that its a bit of an old boys network, however that is the way the world works, much as we might hate it. lets hope qpp did not pay to much.

Steamy001- do you really understand why QPP are doing so well and making such mugs out of their competitors - this an old established sector, and it just seems odd that they've discovered some alchemy invisible to others.

On the plus side - they do seem to be landing contracts with big names, but there's no shortage of glaring red flags not least the EBIDTA margins you quote v the competition.

This link (if it works) should lead to a pdf which compares Quindell with its competitors. As can be seen, there are many points to consider.

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.sap.com%2FSMIGlobal%2Fdownload.epd%3Fcontext%3D2659A1AC2D24284F7FB15F275BCF5FE3D4AD105E3823AE79ADF0850AFFAA22C541720CF976903B778E9B2390893A4B6128738B5E8312FCE7&ei=3DSmUeK8AoWa1AXUwYCQDQ&usg=AFQjCNE2bV3oQhTYcacNNaFmNmgSepFU-g&bvm=bv.47008514,d.d2k

Steamy, I would suggest that the past history with Innovation Group is a "hard fact" as you say. This history is important and may answer some of the reasons why Quindell is "cheap" today.

I am afraid to say I am not old enough to know the history at Innovation, I am merely commenting on my research into the hard facts available to me as of today, to me the fundamentals scream at me, I don't get influenced by others I make my own mind up, no one can say for sure that this company will go onto greater things yet, it appears that way to me, but before this one falls Guidewire and Innovation should be worried as they do not compare.

I appreciate the links and will take time to read them.

So, what happened to Innovation Group? The CEO of Quindell was the CEO of that company. It grew by acquisition and at one stage had a share price getting on for £10, whereas today it stands at around 27p. It also had a tendency to announce strong growth numbers by acquisition but its share price went south.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2729417/Innovation-shares-fall-as-acquisitions-fail-to-impress.html

There is an impression of history repeating itself here.

Then there is this.

"He collected about £8m when the shares were floated at 229p each. They subsequently raced up to a peak of 899p, valuing the group at £1.3bn. But a rapid series of acquisitions worried the market and the shares crashed to a low of 5 1/2p last year.

Terry's head was part of the price the City demanded for backing a £9m lifeline rights issue earlier this year. Formerly chairman and chief executive, Terry became non-executive deputy chairman in February. Now he will quit altogether at the end of September. "

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/tig-founder-gets-437500-payoff-6969891.html

If you are backing the man there is clearly history and question marks. Quindell today looks a little like Innovation 12-13 years ago, although the share price of the former is weak and the latter lived on the hype of the tech boom. If I was an investor I'd be more concerned with this repeating of history and the market view of the man running the show, than some of the other red flags that have been raised. Having said that it's possible that this is the reason why there are red flags.

Quindell could be a great opportunity, but like many smaller companies it could fail to live up to the hype and fail to deliver shareholder value. Can you enlighten us on any differences with the CEO's time at Innovation and why you would be confident that it is different this time?

Paul,

Thank you for your comments, I agree we should all stop the conspiracy theory's form here on in and focus on hard facts. After all we all want to make money from investing in listed companies.

I have written a 2nd note to demonstrate growth of the three main competitors.

http://www.stockopedia.com/content/who-is-the-real-growth-company-in-this-sector-73668/

Perhaps the biggest eye-opener for me in all of this is that the word 'placing' is not defined by, say, the AIM Rules.

So, while we all may expect it to mean the sale of ordinary shares in the company 'rank pari passu' etc. the lack of a definition means that it can be used to define derivative contracts.

Asagi

steamy,

Good for you in posting the upside case, always good to look at both sides of the story.

Although I think the silly conspiracy theories don't help your case. A lot of experienced investors think this company looks pretty dodgy. The ones that are short have been completely open about it (Evil Knievil & Lucian Mears), so what's the problem? They are talking their book, you & other longs are talking yours. Arguably the only people who are truly independent are people like me that have no holding, either long or short!

Also, if you unpick the weasel-worded "clarification statements" from QPP, you'll find they are themselves also highly misleading. They try to make out everything is fine over the derivatives, but actually they could involve a substantial write-off of the Debtor related to this, if the share price remains low. It's all part of a pattern - a company than spins & exaggerates in order to inflate its own share price. Now we know why - as they had a hefty derivative riding on that share price! Is it any wonder that people are nervous?

Anyway, good luck with it & well done for putting the upside case, I'm all for a balanced debate.

Cheers, Paul.