Small Cap Value Report (Fri 7 Dec 2018) - GAW, SUS, AJB, GLE

I think The Onion has as good a grasp on the markets as anyone at the moment:
NEW YORK—Reminding investors that 800-point swings are completely normal, financial experts confirmed Thursday that the stock market constantly plunging before climbing to record highs was the leading indicator of a healthy economy. “A highly volatile market that reaches a record high one day before suddenly wiping out weeks’ worth of gains the next is a defining characteristic of a robust economy,” said Standard & Poor’s chief global economist, Paul Gruenwald, who urged investors to remain calm and continue buying up stocks before dumping everything the instant the Dow dropped.....
https://www.theonion.com/financial-experts-say-stock-market-constantly-plunging-1830913240

In reply to post #425598

"So keen are the people who play these games that if you put the shop 100ft under the ground in an old coal mine, they would still find them".

I was amused by that comment on Games Workshop (LON:GAW) at the time. He clearly doesn't quite 'get' the clientele; as someone that played this kind of games in my youth I have to say that the opportunity to play these games in a mine (Moria anyone?) would have been something I would have paid good money for. An opportunity for Games Workshop maybe?

Hi Graham and all,
Given a slow news day, if MJ Gleeson is covered, is it possible to do a housebuilder special?
The sector is starting to look very cheap with some ridiculous yields. Personally I think Barratts, persimmon and Taylor wimpey are looking good as debt free, particularly Barratts at 1*book, 1.3*the, which I would suggest is the right measure for such asset intensive companies, and regionally diversified / biggest.
Of course there is an elephant in the parliament!

Many thanks in advance

Thanks for the requests - Games Workshop (LON:GAW) is now done, including a bonus picture of an Adeptus Titanicus Warlord Battle Titan With Plasma Annihilator and Power Claw.

In reply to post #425633

I did my own little investigation into Housebuilders a couple of days ago and I plumped for Redrow as my best bet. I think the majority are undervalued and unloved at the moment and there must be a correction soon. The 4th Quarter used to be known for Builders to perform but not so much this year.

I am really keen on Games Workshop (LON:GAW) too.... I think it's a great business.

My only reservation is the valuation, which is pricing in growth. It has been niche, and I think it always will be niche. Pandering to the mainstream in search of acquiring more customers might see it lose the advantages that it has gained, and something else might then fill the gap.

The creator of Warhammer (Rick Priestley) left in 2010 citing that the balance had tipped.. would much of the advantage they have be in its people?

Graham

I guess this figure outside Games Workshop (LON:GAW) HQ would take quite a while to paint.

Cheers, Martin

P.S. Not sure if this one is still there.

In reply to post #425643

Redrow looks good and yield level doesn't imply a cut. From my perspective I'd prefer reduced London exposure since I am personally exposed to the region.

Same reason I would prefer Gleeson over an Inland.
Was looking at ETFs to buy the sector but underlying holdings tend to be more REITS than housebuilders (which is also cheap especially among the over leveraged!)

In reply to post #425638

That's "Mister" Adeptus Titanicus Warlord Battle Titan With Plasma Annihilator and Power Claw to you, sir.

GW is a great company, no fannying around with irrelevant stuff, just knows its product, market and audience and continues to deliver to them. I don't think they are a takeover target though, all the other mainstream games companies sell more "family friendly" stuff, and plasma annihilator inquisitors are just that bit off from their audiences. It'd be a bit like Disney buying Ann Summers.

In reply to post #425558

Good suggestion to look at AJB - Done. G

In reply to post #425553

re: MJ Gleeson (LON:GLE)

Done, appreciate the suggestion even though it's not my sector. G

In reply to post #425543

Games Workshop (LON:GAW) > " it is difficult to see Games Workshop (LON:GAW) annual sales being less than £260m versus the forecast £234m."

If you model up H1 last year to this years with same % growth forecast for H2 is closer to £250m - still a beat.

All the best,
CID

Disclosure I hold and thinking about more

Just a quick anecdote from my visit last night to a store to demonstrate the commitment of a Games Workshop (LON:GAW) customer. There's a recent Age of Sigmar spin-off collector card game produced by PlayFusion (under licence) and sold in both GAW and Independent stores. Due to unspecified distribution issues stock was briefly delayed by a couple of days in the local store, the customer I was chatting to formed a posse and drove across the Pennines to an independent store and purchased over £500 of stock immediately rather than wait a couple of days.

In reply to post #425693

cidunn

"Games Workshop (LON:GAW) > " it is difficult to see Games Workshop (LON:GAW) annual sales being less than £260m versus the forecast £234m."

"If you model up H1 last year to this years with same % growth forecast for H2 is closer to £250m - still a beat.

All the best,
CID

Disclosure I hold and thinking about more

FYI, last year was exceptional in terms of the H1/H2 sales split because of the H1 40k release. To get to £260m I assumed H2 to be 10% ahead of H1 which is relatively conservative based on past history.

Cheers, Martin

In reply to post #425698

it is astonishing that clients spend hundreds on the game , then more on the paint , and more on scenery , which they then paint themselves.

ive looked in several shops and been impressed by the staff.

the shares were available under £10 less than 2 years ago . i bought .

Ted Baker (LON:TED) RNS 3 mins before market closed!!!??? I just hit sell all at that point for a decent loss. Will buy back in at some point if things turn for the better.

Rather naughty from Ted Baker (LON:TED).

Why release the RNS before the market close? It's not as if anyone is going to forget about it on Monday morning.

I feel sure this will be the end for Kelvin, taking a similar way out like Sorrell did ... a quiet departure in exchange for the investigation somehow running into a dead end.

In reply to post #425743

I'm guessing there will be some stories in the Sunday papers about Ted Baker (LON:TED) so they decided to act before they are published.

In reply to post #425563

The way I read this was that if an investor wishes to protect their investment and give the Quadrise Fuels International (LON:QFI) board some more time to follow through with their current strategy then they will subscribe to the offer. I guess some may have even sold some shares to free up cash to do this. This is a 'jam tomorrow' share but the potential pot of jam is enormous.

In reply to post #425513

for the thumps down this was posted Fri 3:06am, before markets opened,, i was close, and made a killing on shorting and going long, so if have something to say do it rather than give a lame thumbs down,,this post was below grahams before he posted  his companies,, so get facts right