Good morning, it's Paul here!

Hopefully I'll do a better job of reporting on today's news than earlier this week. The volume has overwhelmed me a bit this week, but I'll get cracking.


Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)

Share price: 2769p (up 6.6% today, at 09:17)
No. shares: 116.1m
Market cap: £3,215m

Trading update

Just to mention this mid to larger cap, in passing, as it's such an interesting situation - the maker of posh tonic water & other premium mixer drinks.

Shareholders can breath a sigh of relief this morning - with a positive trading update. Growth in the UK has been strong, at 52%, and international growth also looks to be taking off well.

Reflecting the continued strong performance in the second half, the Board expects that the outcome for the full year will be comfortably ahead of the Board's expectations...


We're not seeing many trading updates like that at the moment.

The £3.2bn market cap may look like madness, but not if it continues growing this strongly. Revenues may be relatively modest, but its operating profit margin is very high.

The forward PER isn't as bonkers as it's been in the past, either. Stockopedia is showing consensus of 49.2p for 2018. "Comfortably ahead" possibly means 52-53p, at a guess, making the 2018 PER about 53.

Fro 2019, I imagine forecasts will be increased - I'm inclined to pencil in 60-70p EPS. That equates to a PER of between 40-46 - high, but not outrageous for a growth company that is performing very well.

My feeling is that growth company shares now resemble playing Russian Roulette. The slightest disappointment, and you wake up to an instant 50% loss. Whereas, as we've seen today, an out-performance update has only added 7% to the share price. That doesn't seem terribly good risk:reward to me.



Flybe (LON:FLYB)

Share price: 4.6p (down 28% today)
No. shares: 216.7m
Market cap: £10.0m

Overview of offer to shareholders

This clarification type statement seems to be telling Flybe shareholders that the game is up, and that the derisory offer of 1p per share from a consortium including Virgin & Stobart, is the only option.

This sentence sounds crucial to me;

The sale to Connect Airways of Flybe's trading subsidiaries is expected…

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