Good morning!

There are quite a few things I might look at today. 

This list is final:



Politics

A quick interlude on politics, as this is being treated as a major story, and I guess that it is:

Government asks Queen to suspend parliament.

Parliament will be suspended between mid-September and mid-October, allowing for the new Cabinet and PM to put forward a new legislative agenda and also limiting Parliament's ability to block Brexit (of the Deal or No-Deal variety).

The so-called "No-Deal" Brexit is now more likely, although arguably a "Deal" Brexit is also more likely, too (since Parliament is opposed to both the Withdrawal Agreement and to a "No-Deal" Brexit).

Investment implications:

  • The pound is clearly weaker in the short-term (though I expect it to be stronger in the long-term). We are probably not yet at "peak uncertainty", but we should get there over the next two-and-a-bit months.
  • FTSE is marginally up today, with a weaker pound boosting the nominal value of the index (though not necessarily compensating for the loss of international purchasing power).
  • VIX (the Fear Index) is strong, around 20 today, and volatility measures in the UK are also very strong.
  • Some individuals and businesses may delay major decisions and investments (e.g. house purchases and construction) until the uncertainty has been replaced with clarity. Professional services firms such as architects, and the housebuilders, might have a tricky few months.

Trade carefully!




Thomas Cook (LON:TCG)

  • Share price: 5.9p (-17%)
  • No. of shares: 1536 million
  • Market cap: £91 million

Update on proposed recapitalisation plan

The end is approaching for existing shareholders' ownership of this PLC.

The company says that getting shareholder support for its recapitalisation plan is "preferred" (implying that there will be a recapitalisation with or without shareholder support) but that existing shareholders will be "significantly diluted".

The Chinese group Fosun will put £450 million in and get:

  • at least 75% of the Tour Operator and 25% of the Airline

Banks and noteholders will convert their debts and get:

  • "approximately 75% of the…

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