REG - BP PLC - 1Q25 bp Trading Statement Part 1 of 1

BPAnnouncement

11/04/2025 07:00

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RNS Number : 5957E  BP PLC  11 April 2025

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 11 April 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

First quarter 2025 trading statement

The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.'s (bp) current
estimates and expectations for the first quarter of 2025, including data on
the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.

The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact
bp's group results for the first quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those
results. Also refer to bp's fourth quarter and full year 2024 group results
announcement on 11 February 2025 for first quarter and full year 2025 guidance
items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that
guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All
information provided is subject to the finalization of bp's financial
reporting processes and actual results may vary.

bp's group results for the first quarter 2025 are expected to be published on
29 April 2025.

Updated 1Q25 guidance(a)

•      Reported upstream production(b) in the first quarter is expected
to be lower compared to the prior quarter, with production slightly higher in
oil production & operations and lower in gas & low carbon energy
including the already announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad completed
towards the end of prior quarter.

•      In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly flat including
changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and
trading result is expected to be weak.

•      In the oil production & operations segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly flat including the
impact of price lags on bp's production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.

•      In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior
quarter, results are expected to be impacted by the following factors:

◦     customers - lower costs and stronger midstream performance, partly
offset by seasonally lower volumes.

◦     products - stronger realized refining margins in the range of $0.1
- 0.3 billion and a lower impact from turnaround activity. The oil trading
result is expected to be average.

•      Other items:

◦     Net debt at the end of the first quarter is expected to be around
$4 billion higher compared to the fourth quarter. This is driven primarily by
a working capital build, which is largely expected to reverse, reflecting
seasonal inventory effects, timing of payments including annual bonus payments
and payments related to low carbon assets held for sale.

◦     The underlying effective tax rate for the first quarter is
expected to be around 50%, which reflects the geographical mix of profits.

(a               ) All impacts influence bp's underlying RC
profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.

(b               ) Includes bp's share of production of
equity-accounted entities.

(c               ) Realizations are based on sales by
consolidated subsidiaries only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.

( )

Trading conditions

Brent averaged $75.73/bbl in the first quarter 2025 compared to $74.73/bbl in
the fourth quarter 2024.

US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.65/mmBtu in the first
quarter 2025 compared to $2.79/mmBtu in the fourth quarter 2024.

The bp RMM* averaged $15.2/bbl in the first quarter 2025 compared to $13.1/bbl
in the fourth quarter 2024.

Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at
the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html)

( )

Cautionary Statement

In order to utilize the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the 'PSLRA') and the general
doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary
statement: The discussion in this announcement contains certain forecasts,
projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to
future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial
condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans
and objectives of bp with respect to these items. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to
events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and
are outside the control of bp. Actual results or outcomes, may differ
materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of
factors, including (without limitation): price fluctuations in crude oil and
natural gas; changes in demand for bp's products; currency fluctuations;
drilling and production results; reserves estimates; sales volume and sales
mix numbers; supply and demand imbalances including as a result of direct or
indirect restrictions on production; regional pricing differentials and
refining margins; seasonal impacts on product demand and operating expenses;
resolution of trading and derivative positions for the quarter; the timing and
level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of
refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream;
natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public
expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of
terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage as well as those factors discussed under
"Risk factors" in bp's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024 as filed with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission. Furthermore, additional factors may exist
that will be relevant to bp's group results for the first quarter of 2025 that
are not currently known or fully understood. Neither bp nor any of its
subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update, revise or supplement any
forward-looking statement contained in this announcement to reflect future
circumstances, events or information.

The contents of websites referred to in this announcement do not form part of
this announcement.

 

 

This announcement contains inside information. The person responsible for
arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of BP p.l.c., is Ben
Mathews, Company Secretary.

 

 

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 11 April 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Appendix: Guidance issued in 4Q24 Stock Exchange Announcement(a)

 Guidance Area                                 Full Year 2025                                                                   1Q25 vs 4Q24
 Reported and underlying* upstream production  Reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to   Reported upstream production to be lower primarily due to the already
                                               be slightly lower than 2024, of which oil production & operations broadly        announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad, which completed towards the end
                                               flat and gas & low carbon energy lower                                           of 4Q and base decline in both regions, totaling around 90 thousand barrels of
                                                                                                                                oil equivalent per day
 Customers                                     Growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy    •       seasonally lower volumes
                                               and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America; earnings growth to be

                                               supported by structural cost reduction; fuels margins to remain sensitive to     •       fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of
                                               the cost of supply; earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative        supply
                                               strength of the US dollar

                                                                                                                                •       earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength
                                                                                                                                of the US dollar
 Products                                      Broadly flat refining margins and stronger underlying performance underpinned    •       realized refining margins to remain low in the first quarter
                                               by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery; improvement

                                               plans across the portfolio; similar levels of turnaround activity, with          •       lower lever of refinery turnaround activity
                                               phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards 1H25, with the
                                               highest impact in 2Q
 OB&C                                          Around $1bn charge
 DD&A                                          Broadly flat compared with 2024
 Underlying effective tax rate*(b)             Expected to be around 40%
 Capital expenditure*(c)                       Around $15bn
 Divestment and other proceeds                 Around $3bn weighted towards 2H25
 Gulf of America oil settlement payments       ~$1.2bn pre-tax, of which $1.1bn 2Q

(a               ) Refer to bp's fourth quarter and full year
2024 group results announcement and bp.com for full text.

(b               ) Underlying effective tax rate is sensitive
to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and
its impact on the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses.

(c               ) Refer to bp's strategy announcement on 26
February 2025 for more details.

*        See Glossary.

Contacts

                     London                Houston

 Press Office        David Nicholas        Paul Takahashi
                     +44 (0) 7831 095541    +1 713 903 9729

 Investor Relations  Craig Marshall        Graham Collins
 bp.com/investors    +44 (0) 203 401 5592  +1 832 753 5116

Glossary

Underlying production - 2025 underlying production, when compared with 2024,
is production after adjusting for acquisitions and divestments, curtailments,
and entitlement impacts in our production-sharing agreements/contracts and
technical service contract*.

Underlying RC profit or loss before interest and tax for the operating
segments or customers & products businesses is calculated as RC profit or
loss including profit or loss attributable to non-controlling interests before
interest and tax for the operating segments and excluding net adjusting items
for the respective operating segment or business.

bp believes that underlying RC profit or loss is a useful measure for
investors because it is a measure closely tracked by management to evaluate
bp's operating performance and to make financial, strategic and operating
decisions and because it may help investors to understand and evaluate, in the
same manner as management, the underlying trends in bp's operational
performance on a comparable basis, period on period, by adjusting for the
effects of these adjusting items. The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS
basis for the group is profit or loss attributable to bp shareholders. The
nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis for segments and businesses is RC
profit or loss before interest and taxation.

Underlying effective tax rate (ETR) is a non-IFRS measure. The underlying ETR
is calculated by dividing taxation on an underlying replacement cost (RC)
basis by underlying RC profit or loss before tax. Taxation on an underlying RC
basis for the group is calculated as taxation as stated on the group income
statement adjusted for taxation on inventory holding gains and losses and
total taxation on adjusting items. Information on underlying RC profit or loss
is provided below. Taxation on an underlying RC basis presented for the
operating segments is calculated through an allocation of taxation on an
underlying RC basis to each segment. bp believes it is helpful to disclose the
underlying ETR because this measure may help investors to understand and
evaluate, in the same manner as management, the underlying trends in bp's
operational performance on a comparable basis, period on period. Taxation on
an underlying RC basis and underlying ETR are non-IFRS measures. The nearest
equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is the ETR on profit or loss for the
period.

Capital expenditure is total cash capital expenditure as stated in the
condensed group cash flow statement. Capital expenditure for the operating
segments, gas & low carbon energy businesses and customers & products
businesses is presented on the same basis.

Technical service contract (TSC) - Technical service contract is an
arrangement through which an oil and gas company bears the risks and costs of
exploration, development and production. In return, the oil and gas company
receives entitlement to variable physical volumes of hydrocarbons,
representing recovery of the costs incurred and a profit margin which reflects
incremental production added to the oilfield.

BP p.l.c.'s LEI Code 213800LH1BZH3D16G760

 

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