REG - Cadence Minerals PLC - Updated PFS Economic Study Delivers Increased NPV
03/12/2024 07:00
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RNS Number : 4867O Cadence Minerals PLC 03 December 2024
The company deems the information contained within this announcement to
constitute Inside Information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulation
(E.U.) No. 596/2014, as it forms part of U.K. domestic law under the European
Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, as amended. Upon the publication of this
announcement via a regulatory information service, this information is
considered to be in the public domain.
Cadence Minerals Plc
("Cadence Minerals", "Cadence", or "the Company")
PFS Level Economic Study for the Amapa Iron Ore Project Increases Net Present
Value to US$1.97 Billion
Cadence Minerals (AIM: KDNC), the AIM-quoted investment company, is pleased to
announce an updated Pre-Feasibility Study ("PFS") on the Amapá Iron Ore
Project ("Amapá", "Project" or "Amapá Project"), in northern Brazil. Cadence
owns an equity stake of 34.6% in the Project. The updated PFS is based on the
Direct Reduction grade ("DR-grade") flow sheet announced on AIM: 26 November
2024
(https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KDNC/amapa-iron-ore-project-update/16781073)
.
Highlights:
· 73% 1 increase of post-tax Net Present Value ("NPV(10%)") to
US$1.97 billion and 56% internal rate of return ("IRR").
· Average annual free cash flow from start-up to closure is
estimated to be US$342 million.
· The Project is estimated to generate a total of US$9 billion in
gross revenues, US$4.9 billion in net operating profit and US$4.6 billion in
free cash flow over its 15-year mine life.
· Revised processing plant design to produce 67.5% Iron ("Fe")
DR-grade iron ore concentrate at an average 2 rate of 5.5 million metric
tonnes per annum ("Mtpa").
· Free on Board ("FOB") C1 Cash Costs US$33.7 per dry metric ton
("DMT") at the port of Santana. Cost and Freight ("CFR") C1 Cash Costs
US$61.9/DMT in China.
· Pre-production capital of US$377 million, and the payback
period is reduced to 3 years due to higher free cash flows.
Cadence CEO Kiran Morzaria commented: "This significant update to the Amapá
Prefeasibility Study, which includes the DR-grade concentrate flow sheet,
reinforces our firm belief that the project can add substantial value to
Cadence. The increased net present value of $1.97 billion and improved
post-tax internal rate of return reflect significant advancements in the
project's robust economics.
The Amapá Project represents a well-developed and largely de-risked
opportunity, featuring established mineral reserves, advanced environmental
permitting, and complete control of integrated rail and port infrastructure.
This ownership and control of the infrastructure contribute to the project's
low-cost base and will enable the pursuit of regional expansion opportunities,
with substantial resources located within 30 kilometres of the existing rail
line. In addition to the DR-grade flow sheet, the project will use 100%
renewable energy sources. We anticipate this will help us achieve one of the
lowest carbon footprints in the region while still delivering a robust and
highly profitable project.
We are excited about the potential of the Amapá Iron Ore Project and look
forward to providing further updates on our progress."
Chairman Andrew Suckling added: "The Amapa Project is now emerging as a
material "green iron" project, backed by product quality and highly
competitive economic metrics. We are at this juncture due to the tireless
efforts of the Board and Project team, and I'd like to put on record my thanks
and gratitude to them and our shareholders and stakeholders. I look forward to
Amapa playing its part in "green steel" production and the decarbonisation
of the iron and steel industry."
Table 1 Key Project Metrics (100% project basis)
Metric Unit Revised PFS July 2024 Updated DR Grade PFS Nov 2024
Total ore feed to the plant Mt (dry) 176.93 176.93
Life of Mine Years 15 15
Fe grade of ore feed to the plant % 39.34 39.34
Recovery % 76.27 75.27
62.0% iron ore concentrate production Mtpa 0.95 -
65.4% iron ore concentrate production Mtpa 4.51 -
67.5% iron ore concentrate production Mtpa - 5.52
C1 Cash Costs FOB * US$/DMT 33.50 33.75
C1 Cash Costs CFR ** US$/DMT 62.19 61.93
Pre-Production capital investment*** US$M 343 377
Sustaining capital investment over life of mine**** US$M 245 220
AISC Cash Costs FOB***** US$/DMT 45.22 47.38
Platts TSI IODEX 65% Fe CFR used US$/DMT 118.75 120.00
Post-tax NPV(10%) US$M 1,145 1,977
Post-tax IRR % 42 56
Project payback Years 4 3
Total profit after tax (net operating profit) US$B 3.14 4.96
* Means operating cash costs, including mining, processing, geology,
occupational health and safety environment, rail, port and site G&A,
divided by the tonnes of iron ore concentrate produced. It excludes royalties
and is quoted on a FOB basis (excluding shipping to the customer).
** This means the same as C1 Cash Costs FOB; however, it includes shipping to the
customer in China (CFR).
*** Includes direct tax credit rebate over 48 months
**** Includes both sustaining capital and deferred capital expenditure,
specifically, improvements to the railway, the installation of a slurry
pipeline and mine site to rail load out
***** Includes all the C1 Cash Cost, plus royalties, pre-production capital
investment and sustaining capital investment over the life of the mine and is
quoted on a FOB basis
Introduction
The Project comprises an open-pit iron ore mine, a processing and
beneficiation plant, a railway line, and an export port terminal. The Amapá
Project is 100% owned by DEV Mineração S.A. ("DEV") and its subsidiaries.
DEV is owned by Pedra Branca Alliance Pte. Ltd. ("PBA"), a joint venture
("JV") between Cadence and Indo Sino Trade Pte Ltd ("Indo Sino").
The Project ceased operations in 2014 after the port facility suffered a
geotechnical failure, which limited iron ore export. Before the cessation of
operations, the Project generated an underlying profit of US$54 million in
2012 and US$120 million in 2011. Operations commenced in December 2007, and in
2008, the Project produced 712 thousand tonnes of iron ore concentrate.
Production steadily increased, producing 4.8 Mt and 6.1 Mt of iron ore
concentrate products in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Cadence and Indo Sino, through their JV, acquired 100% of DEV's shareholding
in 2022 through the submission of a judicial restructuring plan approved by
the unsecured creditors. As part of this plan, DEV sought to redevelop the
Amapá Project. This strategy includes a plan to resume operations after plant
revitalisation and modifications, aimed at improving product quality and
increasing recovery, along with recovery of the port, railway, and support
areas.
It should be noted that Indo Sino and Cadence have managed this PFS, and it
represents an update to the PFS published on AIM: 3 January 2023
(https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KDNC/completion-of-pfs-on-amapa-iron-ore-project/15779028)
and the revised PFS published on AIM: 9 July 2024
(https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KDNC/update-pfs-economic-study-delivers-increased-npv/16558032)
. In particular, this updated PFS has been prepared to reflect the 67.5% Fe
concentrate flow sheet.
Location
The Project is in Amapá state. Amapá is Brazil's second least populous state
and the eighteenth largest by area. Most of the Amapá state territory is
rainforested, while the remaining areas are covered with savannah and plains.
The State capital and largest city is Macapá (pop. circa 500,000), with the
municipality of Santana (pop. circa 120,000) located just 14km to the
southwest.
The Amapá mine is some 125km northeast of the state capital, Macapá, and the
port facility is located on the Amazon River in the municipality of Santana,
close to Macapá, as shown in (Figure 1). The port site in Santana is located
170km from the mouth of the Amazon River. The nearest populace centre to the
Amapá mine is Pedra Branca Do Amapari, some 11km west, with the larger town
of Serra do Navio 18 km northwest.
Figure 1 Location of the Amapá Project
Amapá Project Components
The Amapá Project PFS encompasses four distinct but completely integrated
operational components that formed part of the original PFS. The four areas
are:
Amapá Mining Complex: An open-pit iron ore mine with various open pits, an
iron ore concentration and beneficiation plant, associated waste rock dumps,
and a tailings management facility.
Railway Line: Integrated 194 km railway line connecting Serra do Navio to the
port terminal at Santana. The rail passes via Pedra Branca do Amapari (180 km
from the port), located 13 km from the Amapá mine and the plant.
Export Port Terminal: An integrated industrial port site, privately owned and
controlled by DEV, is located in Santana. The terminal had the capacity for
loading the Supramax and Handymax vessels.
Transhipment Solution: A Capesize vessel is partially loaded at the berth in
Santana port and topped off in the open ocean, 200 nautical miles from the
berth.
Updated Pre-Feasibility Study
As announced on AIM: 26 November 2024
(https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KDNC/amapa-iron-ore-project-update/16781073)
, the Amapá Iron Ore Project completed its metallurgy test work and
successfully produced a DR-grade iron ore concentrate. The updated PFS
investigates all the design, engineering, and business parameters required to
implement the DR-grade flow sheet at a rate of 5.5 Mtpa (dry basis)/6.03 Mtpa
(wet basis). This comprises the mine schedule published in July 2024 and the
processing plant and associated infrastructure required for DR-grade
concentrate production.
Mining Schedule
The improved flow sheet's annual feed rate ("ROM") is 13.99 Mtpa (wet base).
The mining schedule prepared for the revised PFS published earlier in the year
was utilised for this purpose. The mine engineering and design work for this
PFS, including equipment requirements and mining strategy, have been
undertaken by Wardell Armstrong International. These works have been conducted
at the PFS level and incorporate an Ore Reserve Estimate for open pit mining,
which was prepared under the guidelines of the JORC Code (2012). The Ore
Reserve for the Amapá Project is at 195.8 million tonnes, with an average
grade of 39.34% Fe and a cut-off grade of 25% Fe.
A Life of Mine ("LOM") production plan was scheduled using the Deswik.Blend®
Scheduler Optimiser. The solids used in the mine schedule were based on the
final pit design, with a Selective Mining Unit of 100m x 200m x 4m. The LOM
schedule allows for 15 years of production with the current economic values
and cut-off of 25% Fe.
The resultant LOM strip ratio is approximately 0.4:1 (tonnes waste: tonnes
ore), and the average ore mine delivered to the plant is 13.99 Mtpa. A site
plan of the pits and phases is outlined in (Figure 2).
Figure 2 Open Pit Design Phases
Processing Plant
Pei Si Engineering Incorporated conducted the test work and designed the flow
sheet. The metallurgical test work established that the optimal flow sheet
utilised a regrind, which feeds into a low-intensity magnetic separator. This
process produces two streams: the first stream goes to a reverse flotation
circuit, while the second stream is sent to a high-intensity magnetic
separator, followed by a second reverse flotation circuit. As a result of the
above, the following main changes were made to the original PFS flow sheet
published in January 2023.
· Removing the jigging circuit, with the iron being recovered via the
grinding, magnetic, and flotation circuits. This improves the iron recovery
rate.
· Replacing hydrocyclone desliming with thickeners, improving
classification efficiency and lowering power consumption.
· The 67.5% flow sheet will remove the 62% product stream, eliminating
the spiral circuit. This will shorten the process flow and reduce power
consumption.
· Adding a flow sheet to improve iron concentrates from 65.4% to 67.5%
via regrinding the material from the magnetic separator, meaning finer
particles can be further liberated, improving iron concentrate grade to 67.5%.
· Replacement of all slurry, water, and reagent pumps involved in the
beneficiation process.
· Due to a single concentrate product, the conveyor transport is
replaced by a slurry pipeline and filtrate water return pipeline, reducing
operating and capital costs.
· The particle size of the concentrate after the tower mills is too
fine to be filtered by the existing vacuum disc filters. Therefore, horizontal
press filters are required to ensure the moisture content of the filter cake
is no greater than 8%.
· A train loading system will be built in the train loading area.
An outline of the plant layout is shown in (Figure 3)
Figure 3 DR-Grade Plant Layout
Cost Estimates
To evaluate the project's economics, an updated PFS financial model, which
included the updated mining schedule, capital costs ("CAPEX"), operational
costs ("OPEX"), and revised product price, was developed. All other aspects of
the financial analysis remained the same as per the revised PFS published in
July 2024.
The CAPEX estimate is based on the layout for all areas of the Project and is
supported by mechanical equipment lists and engineering drawings. The costs
for these items have been derived from informal vendor quotes for the
equipment and materials or consultant engineering databases. Parts of the
CAPEX estimate are after tax (with the duties and taxes deemed recoverable
calculated separately), include contingency, and exclude escalation. The CAPEX
estimate includes all the direct and indirect costs, local taxes and duties
and appropriate contingencies for the facilities required to bring the Project
into production, as defined by a PFS-level engineering study. As this is a
PFS, the cost accuracy is estimated at ± 25% and has a base date of June 2022
and November 2024. Pre-production, deferred and sustaining summaries of the
capital cost estimates are provided below. Pre-production CAPEX has increased
due to the equipment required to achieve the DR-grade product. However, the
variance in the total CAPEX has been reduced. This is a result of producing
one product stream, which uses a slurry pipeline to transport the concentrate
from the mine to the rail loadout station rather than a conveyor.
Table 2 Pre-Production Capital Cost Estimates
Description Revised PFS July 2024 (US$M) Updated DR Grade PFS Nov 2024 (US$M)
Direct Capex Mining 2.8 2.8
Direct Capex Beneficiation Plant 104.4 133.7
Direct Capex Rail 28.5 28.5
Direct Capex Port 113.9 113.9
Sub-total Direct Capex 249.6 278.9
Sub-total Indirect Capex 55.7 56.4
Environment and Community Cost 7.1 6.8
Deduct Tax Credit -14.6 -14.0
Contingency 44.7 49.2
Pre-Production Capex Costs 343.2 377.5
Table 3 Deferred, sustaining, and closure capital costs over LOM.
Description Revised PFS July 2024 (US$M) Updated DR Grade PFS Nov 2024 (US$M)
Railway (2(nd) Phase) 20.0 20.0
Tailings Storage Facility 9.8 9.8
Pipeline Construction / Conveyor 60.5 33.6
Pipeline Construction - EIA/RIMA 0.4 0.3
Contingency - 9.6
Stay in Business 90.7 84.4
Closure Costs 62.8 62.8
Total Deferred Capital Costs 244.5 220.5
OPEX for the Project has been prepared based on the Project physicals,
detailed estimates of the consumption of key consumables based on those
physicals, and the unit cost of consumables.
The periods considered are annual, and production follows the production plan
produced by DEV, based on a yearly output of 5.5 Mtpa of DR-grade (dry basis)
/ 6.03 Mtpa (wet basis). OPEX comprises physicals, labour, reagents and
operating consumables, freight and power costs, mobile equipment, utilities,
maintenance and mining contract costs, external contractor costs,
environmental, and miscellaneous/other General and Administrative (G&A)
expenses. OPEX estimates were prepared or advised by independent consulting
engineers. The estimate is supported by engineering, benchmarking, and pricing
of key consumables and costs derived from past production figures and informal
quotes from suppliers. The table below illustrates the operating costs
developed by discipline during the PFS. The project FOB and CFR average cash
cost per tonne of dry product over the LOM is summarised below. Overall cash
costs have been reduced primarily due to the use of the slurry pipeline, which
has reduced the plant costs. Mining costs have increased due to the lower
recovery rate.
Table 4 FOB and CFR average cash cost per tonne of dry product over the LOM
Cash Cost Per Discipline Revised PFS July 2024 Updated DR Grade PFS Nov 2024
US$/DMT US$/DMT
Mine 16.73 17.65
TSF 0.08 0.09
Beneficiation Plant, Pipeline, Transfer & Rail Loading 10.94 10.50
Rail Freight 2.43 2.26
Port 1.55 1.52
G & A 1.77 1.74
FOB Cash Costs 33.50 33.75
Marine Logistics 28.70 28.18
CFR Cash Costs 62.20 61.93
DR-GRade Pricing Mechanism
Steel contributes about 8% of global carbon emissions, potentially reaching
12% by 2035. The industry is shifting from traditional Blast Furnace and Basic
Oxygen Furnace ("BF/BOF") methods to Direct Reduced Iron and Electric Arc
Furnace ("DRI/EAF") processes to promote greener production. While BF/BOF
emits around 2.2 tons of CO(2) per ton of steel, DRI/EAF can reduce this to
0.3-1 per ton with hydrogen. Wood Mackenzie projects EAF's share will grow
from 28% to 38% by 2033, supported by significant government funding to reduce
emissions and increase DRI/EAF capacity.
Due to its strong slag rejection capabilities, the BF/BOF process efficiently
processes a wide range of iron ore grades. In contrast, the EAF is sensitive
to impurities, making low-grade iron ore with high impurity levels problematic
for yield and increasing electricity consumption and slag production. Thus,
the EAF requires iron ore with over 67% purity and gangue elements like SiO(2)
and Al(2)O(3) below 2.5%, as shown in (Figure 4).
Figure 4 Summary of Iron Ore Content and Gangue 3
The drive to decarbonise industries and the rise in DRI and EAF steel
production are increasing demand for DR-grade pellet feed, like that envisaged
to be produced at Amapá. CRU, a globally recognised consulting firm,
estimates that 2050 demand for DR-grade pellet feed is expected to reach 310
million tonnes. In Europe, regulatory pressures to cut emissions further drive
demand. However, a significant supply shortfall of about 100 million tonnes is
anticipated, necessitating new DR-Grade iron ore projects.
Iron ore is primarily traded on a CFR or FOB basis. CFR transactions transfer
ownership upon unloading at the destination and include shipping costs. Due to
the lack of transparent indices for products like Amapá's, the industry
recommends using a comparable index with adjustments. The Platts TSI IODEX 65%
Fe CFR China is the closest benchmark for assessing Amapá's DR-Grade product,
with an additional premium for the DR-grade material.
The 65% Fe Index for the updated PFS was evaluated using various methods.
Price forecasts available in the public domain from Wood Mackenzie
(US$92.50/DMT), CRU (US$96.00/DMT), and Fastmarkets (US$120.00/DMT) were
considered. Historically, the 3-year trailing price averages US$152.20/DMT,
and the 5-year average is US$135.70/DMT(1). Based on these considerations,
Amapá has used US$120.00/DMT, an increase of US$1/DMT compared to the
Project's previously published PFS.
It is generally agreed that DR-grade iron ores should command a premium over
the 65% Fe Index. It is anticipated that the Amapá DR-Grade, given its
beneficial properties, will qualify for this premium. One recognised industry
assessment technique for product premiums involves utilising a Value in Use
("VIU") methodology. This approach entails determining a premium or discount
by considering Fe, SiO(2), and Al(2)O(3) variations compared to the 65% Fe.
Amapá has used the premium attributed to the Kamistiatusset Iron Ore Property
("Kami") in Newfoundland as a guide to determine and assist the Value in Use
(VIU) analysis. This analysis suggests a premium of about US$24.8/DMT, though
this may not fully account for green premiums or carbon savings.
Table 5 Comparative product specification between Kami and Amapá iron ore
projects.
Product TFe% SiO(2)% Al(2)O(3)% P% TiO(2)% CaO% MgO% US$ Premium / DMT
Amapá Concentrate 67.5 0.6 0.84 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.03 27.6
Kami Concentrate 67.6 2.1 0.25 0.02 0.03 0.3 0.35 24.8
Project Financial Analysis
A PFS financial model was developed to evaluate the project's economics.
Summary results from the financial model outputs, including financial
analysis, are presented in tables within this section. The financial model
considers 100% equity funding for the Project, although, in reality, the
financing of the Project will be a mix of debt and equity. However, the
existing obligations in terms of principal repayment and current interest
liabilities payable have been included in the financial model.
The product change and increased premium associated with DR-grade iron ore
concentrate are primary economic drivers to changes in the financial model
compared to the revised PFS published in July 2024.
Table 6 Summary of key financial information for the Project.
Item Over Life of Mine Unit RevisedPFS July 2024 Updated DR GradePFS Nov 2024
Gross revenue US$M 9,389 11,242
Freight (Maine Logistics) US$M (2,351) (2,188)
Net Revenue US$M 7,038 9,054
Operating costs US$M (2,744) (2,621)
Royalties and taxes (excluding income tax) US$M (373) (460)
EBITDA US$M 3,922 5,973
EBIT US$M 3,547 5,586
Net Taxes and Interest US$M (390) (621)
Net Operating Profit US$M 2,144 4,964
Initial, Sustaining capital costs & repayments US$M (645) (656)
Free Cash Flow US$M 2,672 4,696
Item Unit RevisedPFS June 2024 Updated DR Grade PFS Nov 2024
Life of mine Years 15 15
Discount rate % 10 10
NPV(10%) US$M 1,145 1,977
IRR % 42 56
Project Payback Years 4 3
Project Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis was performed on key parameters within the financial
model to assess the impact of changes on the project's post-tax NPV
(debt-free). To examine the sensitivity of the Project base case NPV, each
cost factor's economic and operational conditions were independently varied
within a range of +/-25%, and discount rates were changed within the 8%-15%
range.
Project sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the Amapá Project is most
sensitive to a change in iron ore concentrate price, followed by logistics
costs (marine shipment charges) and operating costs. It was least sensitive to
deviation in CAPEX (Figure 5)
Figure 5 Project Sensitivity Analysis (NPV(10%))
Cadence Ownership
As of the end of November 2024, Cadence's total investment in the Amapá
Project is approximately US$14.3 million, and its equity stake in the project
stands at 34.6%.
For further information contact:
Cadence Minerals plc +44 (0) 20 3582 6636
Andrew Suckling
Kiran Morzaria
Zeus (NOMAD & Broker) +44 (0) 20 3829 5000
James Joyce
Darshan Patel
Fortified Securities - Joint Broker +44 (0) 20 3411 7773
Guy Wheatley
Brand Communications +44 (0) 7976 431608
Public & Investor Relations
Alan Green
Qualified Person
Kiran Morzaria B.Eng. (ACSM), MBA, has reviewed and approved the information
contained in this announcement. Kiran holds a Bachelor of Engineering
(Industrial Geology) from the Camborne School of Mines and an MBA (Finance)
from CASS Business School.
Cautionary and Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this announcement are or may be considered
forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are identified by their use of
terms and phrases such as "believe", "could", "should", "envisage",
"estimate", "intend", "may", "plan", "will", or the negative of those
variations or comparable expressions including references to assumptions.
These forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts but rather
on the Directors' current expectations and assumptions regarding the company's
future growth results of operations performance, future capital, and other
expenditures (including the amount, nature, and sources of funding thereof)
competitive advantages business prospects and opportunities. Such
forward-looking statements reflect the Directors' current beliefs and
assumptions and are based on information currently available to the
Directors. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from
the results discussed in the forward-looking statements, including risks
associated with vulnerability to general economic and business conditions,
competition, environmental and other regulatory changes actions by
governmental authorities, the availability of capital markets reliance on
crucial personnel uninsured and underinsured losses and other factors many of
which are beyond the control of the company. Although any forward-looking
statements contained in this announcement are based upon what the Directors
believe to be reasonable assumptions. The company cannot assure investors that
results will be consistent with such forward-looking statements.
1 Compared with revised PFS published on AIM: 9 July 2024
(https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KDNC/update-pfs-economic-study-delivers-increased-npv/16558032)
2 Average after one year ramp up until year 14 of mine life
3 . Champion Iron Limited Pre-feasibility Study for the Kamistiatusset (Kami)
Iron Ore Property. online Available at:
https://company-announcements.afr.com/asx/cia/1e8c4153-e249-11ee-b0cc-26a478d59520.pdf
[Accessed 1 Dec. 2024]
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