Live Markets: Spring time for the Aussie

CRH

28/10/2025 13:05

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SPRING TIME FOR THE AUSSIE

Things are brightening for the Aussie, according to Nomura, after a tough month for the currency.

The Australian dollar has climbed almost 6% so far this year, but it slipped almost 1% in October, with tensions between China and the U.S. limiting the appeal of the Aussie, frequently used as a proxy for the Chinese yuan. AUD/

But the recent calming of U.S.-China trade tensions, coupled with a sharp decline in risk sentiment and copper elevated prices, are all factors supporting the Aussie, Nomura says.

The Japanese bank has entered a long AUD/USD trade as they say the pull-back against the dollar since mid-September is creating an opportunity to express a more bullish view on the currency.

Additionally, they expect Australia Q3 CPI to be a positive catalyst for the currency as well as increasingly positive seasonal performance for AUD in December.

Gold declining after the recent price surge is not a worry for the Aussie, they reckon.XAU=

"The relationship between commodity prices and AUD has become slightly less consistent, but we still see a strong

case for the overall directional link to remain intact. This should support AUD," Nomura says.

"A sharp pull-back in gold prices might be a risk for AUD, but equally, the currency did not appear to gain any support from the dramatic run-up in gold prices this year".

Joice Alves

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