REG - Geiger Counter Ltd Geiger Counter - GCS - Monthly Factsheet - January 2025

Geiger CounterAnnouncement

24/02/2025 09:15

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RNS Number : 1927Y  Geiger Counter Ltd  24 February 2025

 

 

Geiger Counter Limited Plc

 

Monthly Investor Report - 24(th) February 2025

( All Factsheet data is at 31 January 2025)

 

The full monthly factsheet is now available on the Company's website and a
summary can be found below.

 

NCIM - Geiger Counter Ltd - Fund Page for Geiger Counter Ltd
(https://ncim.co.uk/geiger-counter-ltd/)

 

 

Enquiries:

 

For the Investment Manager

CQS (UK) LLP

Craig Cleland

0207 201 5368

 

For the Company Secretary and Administrator

R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited

Jane De Barros/Katie De La Cour

01534 825259/01534 825337

 

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Fund Description

 

The objective of Geiger Counter Limited is to provide investors with the
potential for capital growth through investment primarily in the securities of
companies involved in the exploration, development and production of energy,
predominantly within the uranium industry. Up to 30% of the value of the
Company's investment portfolio may be invested in other resource- related
companies from outside the energy sector.

 

Portfolio Managers

 

Keith Watson and Robert Crayfourd

 

 

Key Advantages for the Investor

·      Access to mining assets in the uranium sector

·      May benefit from embedded subscription share

·      Low correlation to major asset classes

 

 

 

Key Fund Facts(1)

 

 

 Total Gross Assets                   £89.2
 Reference Currency                   GBP
 Ordinary Shares:
   Net Asset Value                    53.87p
   Mid-Market Price                   51.30p
 Net gearing(4)                       21.68%
 Discount                             (4.77%)

 

 

Ordinary Share and NAV Performance(2)

 

                One Month    Three Months    One Year    Three Years    Five Years
                (%)          (%)             (%)         (%)            (%)
 NAV            2.96         (9.45)          (31.27)     30.78          321.52
 Share Price    13.37        11.52           (17.26)     19.30          273.09

 

 

Commentary(3)

 

 

 The U3O8 (Uranium) spot price closed January 2.4% lower at $71.15/lb with
two factors coinciding to weigh on the uranium mining sector. Firstly,
Kazatomprom's Q4'24 operational update showed stronger production following an
earlier-than-expected restart of its Inkai operation. This helped to lift the
group's final quarter output to 6.5ktU/16.9Mlbs U3O8 (on a 100% basis), around
1ktU/2.6Mlbs higher than estimated. Notably however, Kazatomprom's full year
2025 production guidance remained unchanged at 25.0-26.5ktU (on a 100%,
equivalent to 65.0-68.9Mlb U3O8). Secondly, sentiment towards the sector
reacted negatively to news of China's Deepseek Artificial Intelligence (AI)
developments. This led investors to question the pace of US AI datacentre roll
out and a reassessment of the potential pick-up in electricity demand for the
seemingly faster learning, less energy intensive and lower cost technology.

 

Following the news, uranium mining equities, which had started the year well,
dropped sharply and the Company's positive gain of 17% prior to the
announcement was largely unwound with the NAV closing the month with a 3%
gain. This compared to 2.6% sterling return registered by the Solactive
Uranium Pure Play Index. In a further example of the price volatility in the
sector, utility Constellation, which provides baseload nuclear power - and now
also gas power - that recently signed an agreement to supply Microsoft with
power generated from Three Mile Island, ended the month 34% higher.

 

Despite a negative shift in AI sentiment and equity price volatility, we
believe the outlook for reactor fuel demand remains unchanged, underpinned by
significant growth from ongoing reactor builds in China. In addition, other
important nuclear markets also continue to move forwards on restarting
capacity. Since January month-end, encouraging developments in Japan have been
announced. In a draft strategic energy plan, due for cabinet approval later in
February, the Trade and Industry Ministry indicated that it was seeking to
renew the country's focus on nuclear power, rather than de-emphasise it.

Specifically the draft bill no longer references a "reducing reliance" on
nuclear energy, that had appeared in the three previous plans, with the
language changed to a "maximisation" of nuclear power. Nuclear will account
for about 20% of total energy output in 2040, based on the assumption that 30
reactors in the country are expected to be in full operation by then.

 

Despite this recent softness in the spot U3O8 price, it is also noteworthy
that conversion and enrichment prices remain at highs that we believe is
indicative of the robust long-term outlook for the sector. Following the
decline in U3O8 prices it is becoming more economic to feed more U3O8 into the
downstream processing, "overfeeding". Encouragingly, and consistent with this,
a market update by consultant UxC indicated during the month that "additional
U3O8 demand interest is emerging", including from utilities at below US$70/lb.

 

                       Gross Leverage(6)  Commitment Leverage(7)

                       (%)                (%)
 Geiger Counter Ltd    112                112

 

 

CQS (UK) LLP

4th Floor, One Strand, London WC2N 5HR, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0) 20 7201 6900 | F: +44 (0) 20 7201 1200

 

CQS (US), LLC

152 West 57th Street, 40th Floor, New York, NY 10019, US

T: +1 212 259 2900 | F: +1 212 259 2699

 

Tavistock Communications

18 St. Swithin's Lane, London EC4N 8AD

T: +44 20 7920 3150 | geigercounter@tavistock.co.uk

 

Sources: (1)R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited, as at the last business
day of the month indicated at the top of this report. (2)R&H Fund Services
Limited/DataStream, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the
top of this report, total return performance net of fees and expenses based on
bid prices. These include historic returns and past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as
well as up. Please read the important legal notice at the end of this
document. (3)Market data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The
Fund may since have exited some or all of the positions detailed in the
commentary. (4) BMO, UxC, Company data September 2023. (5) www.eia.gov
(http://www.eia.gov) . (6)CQS, as at the last business day of the month
indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3)
of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 7, 9 and 10 of Delegated
Regulation 231/2013. (7)CQS, as at the last business day of the month
indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3)
of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of Delegated
Regulation 231/2013.

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