US natgas futures climb 2% on lower output, higher LNG exports (updated)

US Global Investors

14/09/2026 19:51

Cove Point maintenance from around Sept. 19 could curb exports by 0.8 bcfd
Lower 48 output hit a monthly record in August before slipping to a two-week low
Warmer-than-normal weather through Sept. 29 should keep air-conditioning gas burn elevated
Europe's TTF and Asia's JKM hover near 44-month highs amid global supply disruptions
Updates prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed 2% on Monday on a drop in daily output and an increase in daily liquefied natural gas exports.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.8 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.889 per million British thermal units.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 113.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from a monthly record high of 112.2 bcfd in August.
     On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline to a two-week low of 112.8 bcfd on Monday.
Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
But with hotter-than-normal weather last week, analysts said the amount of gas in storage likely slid to 3.6% above normal during the week ended September 11, down from 4.8% above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer through September 29, with power generators burning more gas than usual to keep air conditioners running. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 109.5 bcfd this week to 107.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
     
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a 20-week high of 18.7 bcfd on Friday.
U.S. energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy, however, has told customers that it plans to shut its 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for a couple of weeks of annual maintenance starting around September 19.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.
Around the world, gas traded at 44-month highs of around $28 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $25 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Prices in the U.S. have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the U.S. produces all the gas it consumes domestically and U.S. LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.
No matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
     
 
Week ended Sep 11 Forecast
Week ended  Sep 4 Actual
Year ago Sep 11
Five-year average (2021-2025) Sep 11
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+42
+40
+87
+74
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,296
3,254
3,420
3,180
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+3.6%
+4.8%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.90
2.83
3.01
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
28.24
27.02
11.13
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
24.89
24.82
11.32
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
22
24
6
34
46
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
131
141
138
118
97
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
153
165
144
152
143
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
113.8
113.1
113.0
107.2
101.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.0
6.7
7.4
N/A
7.7
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
120.8
119.8
120.4
N/A
109.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.5
2.4
2.4
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.6
7.6
7.8
N/A
6.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.4
18.6
17.9
16.0
12.6
U.S. Commercial
4.7
4.9
5.1
4.7
5.0
U.S. Residential
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.9
U.S. Power Plant
45.3
42.3
40.2
40.9
38.4
U.S. Industrial
21.8
21.9
22.0
22.0
22.1
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
83.5
80.9
79.2
79.5
77.8
Total U.S. Demand
112.0
109.5
107.3
N/A
99.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
83
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Sep 18
Week ended Sep 11
2025
2024
2023
Wind
10
8
11
11
10
Solar
9
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
2
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
42
43
40
42
41
Coal
17
18
18
16
17
Nuclear
18
17
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.71
2.76
2.97
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.50
1.68
1.85
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.64
3.73
3.74
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.50
1.65
1.75
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.60
2.59
2.81
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.90
2.25
2.18
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.74
4.33
3.11
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.98
1.95
-0.06
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.94
0.94
0.22
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
44.00
43.02
38.84
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
59.81
62.15
51.24
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
55.95
55.59
56.16
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
44.89
45.33
38.04
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
37.57
37.97
36.05
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))