US natgas prices slip on record output, ample fuel in storage (updated)

US Global Investors

03/09/2026 15:32

EIA says utilities add expected 30 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in week ended August 28
LSEG projects Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, falls to 108.8 bcfd next week
Lower 48 output hits 112.9 bcfd so far in September, topping August's monthly peak
U.S. inventories remain 5.3% above the five-year average despite smaller-than-normal weekly build
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Thursday on record output, lowered demand forecasts for less demand next week, ample amounts of gas in storage and technical selling.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $2.913 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest level since July 9.
During the session, prices topped $3 per mmBtu, then fell after running into technical resistance at that round number.
   "Today’s retreat ... looks more like a failed technical breakout accelerated by an otherwise uneventful storage release than a meaningful deterioration in the physical balance," analysts at consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 30 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 28.
That was in line with the 31-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 50 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 37 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
     
AIR CONDITIONING DEMAND CONTINUES
Analysts said last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year due to high demand for gas from power generators as homes and businesses cranked up air conditioners to escape hot weather. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 112.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from a monthly high of 112.2 bcfd in August.
Record output and mild spring weather allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through September 18. 
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide to 108.8 bcfd next week from 112.7 bcfd this week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
     
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in September from 17.2 bcfd in August. That is still short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.
Around the world, gas traded near 44-month highs of around $25 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $24 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Prices in the U.S., however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the U.S. produces all the gas it consumes domestically and U.S. LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.
No matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
     
 
Week ended Aug 28 Actual
Week ended  Aug 21 Actual
Year ago Aug 28
Five-year average (2021-2025) Aug 28
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+30
+15
+50
+37
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,215
3,184
3,264
3,054
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.3%
+5.5%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.99
2.96
3.01
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
24.85
24.98
11.13
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
23.76
23.62
11.32
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
9
10
17
14
22
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
187
189
130
157
131
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
196
199
147
171
153
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
111.1
112.9
113.3
107.7
101.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.6
7.5
7.3
N/A
7.7
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
117.8
120.4
120.6
N/A
109.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.6
2.3
2.2
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.8
7.9
7.8
N/A
6.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
17.0
18.3
17.8
15.8
12.6
U.S. Commercial
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.6
5.0
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.9
U.S. Power Plant
47.5
46.2
43.0
40.3
38.4
U.S. Industrial
21.8
21.9
21.8
22.0
22.1
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
85.3
84.2
81.0
78.5
77.8
Total U.S. Demand
112.8
112.7
108.8
N/A
99.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
83
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Sep 4
Week ended Aug 28
2025
2024
2023
Wind
10
7
11
11
10
Solar
8
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
43
45
40
42
41
Coal
18
17
18
16
17
Nuclear
17
17
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.88
2.90
2.97
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.96
1.98
1.85
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.42
3.34
3.74
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.76
1.90
1.75
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.71
2.71
2.81
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.03
1.90
2.18
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.27
3.30
3.11
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.05
2.08
-0.06
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.95
0.84
0.22
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
52.79
46.75
38.84
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
180.07
119.29
51.24
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
39.58
32.77
56.16
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
30.50
32.54
38.04
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
25.56
27.67
36.05
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski, Barbara Lewis and David Gregorio)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))