US natgas futures climb 2% to 35-month high on record LNG flows and colder forecasts (updated)

US Global Investors

01/12/2025 20:43

Adds latest prices

Colder weather expected to increase gas demand for heating

Record LNG flows boost US natural gas demand

Global gas prices lower amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a 35-month high on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher demand than expected over the next two weeks.

     Limiting gains were record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower gas prices around the world due mostly to the Ukraine peace talks.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.1 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $4.921 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 27, 2022 for a second day in a row.

That also kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since mid-November.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to a record 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and the prior all-time monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 16.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 142.0 bcfd this week to 139.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to a record 18.2 bcfd in November, topping the prior all-time monthly high of 16.6 bcfd in October.

In LNG news, the Ismaikah LNG vessel was anchored near Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.

The ship is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.

The U.S.became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Around the world, gas prices fell to an 18-month low near $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 in Europe on negotiations over a potential peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, while prices at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia held near a one-month low of about $11. NG/EU

Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Week ended Nov 21 Actual
Year ago Nov 28
Five-year average Nov 28
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-12
-11
-26
-43
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,923
3,935
3,941
3,732
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.1%
+4.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.78
4.85
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.54
9.75
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.09
11.12
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
436
412
397
360
389
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
5
5
3
6
5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
441
417
400
366
394
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.5
110.8
110.5
103.7
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.8
9.4
9.1
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
119.2
120.3
119.5
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.2
2.9
2.9
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.1
5.7
6.0
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
19.1
18.7
14.2
12.8
U.S. Commercial
12.1
17.5
17.2
17.5
14.9
U.S. Residential
18.9
29.6
28.9
29.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
31.4
32.3
31.6
36.3
33.6
U.S. Industrial
24.3
26.1
25.8
26.2
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
94.8
114.2
112.1
117.4
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
122.8
142.0
139.7
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
89
88
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
86
84
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
87
86
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 5
Week ended Nov 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
16
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
5
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
39
42
41
38
Coal
18
8
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
21
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
4.59
4.12
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
4.11
4.03
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
4.34
4.33
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
3.92
3.75
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
4.30
3.91
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
7.70
6.97
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
4.63
4.42
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
1.28
0.74
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
2.14
2.18
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
78.88
79.84
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
72.25
52.14
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
51.75
55.46
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
32.33
35.00
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
34.83
37.41
39.19
31.30
58.87

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Louise Heavens and David Gregorio)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))