US natgas futures fall 3% as demand outlook weakens and LNG feedgas drops (updated)

US Global Investors

05/05/2026 19:53

Lower demand and LNG export declines weigh on U.S. natural gas futures

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints in Permian region

U.S. gas output dips as producers like EQT cut production amid low spot prices

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday on lowered demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants expected to drop during the usual spring maintenance season.

After rising for six days in a row, front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.9 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.788 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since April 7 for a third day in a row.

        In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 62 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 71 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.22 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Output has declined over the past couple of months due in part to low spot prices, which prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production as they wait for prices to rise later in the year.

Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7% above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8% above during the week ended April 24. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 20 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand for the first time this year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold near 97.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 17.3 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.

Week ended May 1 Forecast
Week ended April 24 Actual
Year ago May 1
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 1
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+72
+79
+104
+77
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,214
2,142
2,130
2,066
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+7.2%
+7.7%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.85
2.87
3.46
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
16.57
15.49
11.68
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
16.86
16.86
11.83
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
71
79
55
81
78
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
79
71
71
69
65
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
150
150
126
150
143
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
108.2
109.2
110.0
105.1
100.1
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.8
6.5
7.0
N/A
7.3
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
115.0
115.8
117.0
N/A
107.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2.8
2.8
N/A
2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
5.6
6.4
N/A
6.5
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.2
17.0
17.3
14.7
12.9
U.S. Commercial
6.7
6.3
5.6
5.9
5.9
U.S. Residential
7.9
7.1
5.6
6.5
6.3
U.S. Power Plant
31.7
28.8
30.7
31.2
30.6
U.S. Industrial
22.4
22.6
22.1
22.7
22.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
76.2
72.2
71.4
73.8
73.0
Total U.S. Demand
103.1
97.6
97.9
N/A
94.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
89
89
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
93
93
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
98
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended May 8
Week ended May 1
2025
2024
2023
Wind
15
12
11
11
10
Solar
12
8
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
2
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
32
39
40
42
41
Coal
13
14
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.67
2.63
3.12
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.99
1.89
2.35
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.36
1.31
2.89
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.83
1.83
2.25
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.37
2.25
2.86
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.05
2.45
2.82
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
1.95
1.92
2.98
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-4.16
-4.32
1.34
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.99
0.96
1.32
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
51.09
44.00
40.31
77.61
61.79
PJM West M E-PJWHRTP-IX
72.17
47.11
43.04
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
25.35
23.10
39.90
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
17.50
21.33
29.10
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
9.28
5.75
17.36
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))