US natgas futures jump 5% on forecasts for seasonally cold weather in late January (updated)

US Global Investors

07/01/2026 19:54

US natural gas output declines, affecting futures prices

Cooler weather in late January expected to boost demand

US LNG exports on track to hit monthly record high in January

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Wednesday on a decline in output and forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand later in January.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $3.525 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest price since October 28.

Looking ahead, however, the 12-month futures strip NG12Mst fell to $3.46 per mmBtu, its lowest price since December 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of around 108.1 bcfd on Wednesday due in part to declines in Arkansas and Texas, down from 108.5 bcfd on Tuesday and a daily record high of 111.1 bcfd on December 21, according to LSEG data.

Despite a slight cooldown in the forecasts, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 22, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 131.2 bcfd this week to 132.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $10 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Global prices have declined to multi-month lows over the past month or so on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. Such a development could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

Week ended Jan 2 Forecast
Week ended Dec 26 Actual
Year ago 
Jan 2
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-114
-38
-51
-92
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,261
3,375
3,379
3,225
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+1.1%
+1.7%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.48
3.35
3.72
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.88
9.60
14.67
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.57
9.54
14.16
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
396
380
506
442
460
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
4
4
0
3
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
400
384
506
445
463
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
109.0
109.3
102.5
98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.6
10.2
9.1
N/A
9.6
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.5
119.3
118.3
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.1
3.9
3.8
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.5
5.7
5.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.8
18.4
17.9
15.0
12.8
U.S. Commercial
16.9
14.9
15.3
20.4
17.3
U.S. Residential
28.1
24.2
25.2
35.0
29.9
U.S. Power Plant
30.9
31.0
30.9
37.7
32.5
U.S. Industrial
25.4
24.9
25.2
26.8
26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
109.7
103.2
105.1
128.3
115.5
Total U.S. Demand
138.1
131.2
132.4
N/A
137.0
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
100
99
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
100
99
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
105
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 9
Week ended Jan 2
2025
2024
2023
Wind
12
13
11
11
10
Solar
4
4
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
36
36
40
42
41
Coal
19
18
18
16
17
Nuclear
21
21
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.85
2.82
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.62
2.54
8.77
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.38
2.32
3.87
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.51
2.41
3.74
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.58
2.58
3.93
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
6.90
9.95
15.67
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.11
3.18
4.49
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.10
-1.92
3.27
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.72
1.88
1.22
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
81.25
106.85
147.88
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
32.58
37.49
75.11
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
23.16
20.66
52.79
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
22.00
27.28
44.47
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
25.06
34.49
39.98
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))