US natgas futures rise 3% on near-record LNG export flows, big storage withdrawal (updated)

US Global Investors

12/02/2026 15:32

Adds latest prices

EIA reports larger-than-usual gas storage withdrawal

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

LSEG forecasts lower gas demand amid milder weather

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed 2% on Thursday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a federal report showing energy firms pulled more gas than usual out of storage for a second week in a row to meet surging heating demand during a lingering Arctic freeze.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.8 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.217 per million British thermal units.

After pulling a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended January 30, energy firms pulled 249 bcf from stockpiles during the week ended February 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

That was smaller than the 257-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll but much bigger than the decline of 111 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average withdrawal of 146 bcf for the week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a sixth day in a row and the 15th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.40 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least February 27.

With last week's storage withdrawal, stockpiles fell from around 1% below normal levels for this time of year during the week ended January 30 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Energy analysts, however, noted mild weather expected over the next few weeks could wipe out much of that storage deficit by early March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.3 bcfd this week to 124.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

Week ended Feb 6 Actual
Week ended Jan 30 Actual
Year ago Feb 6
Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-249
-360
-111
-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,214
2,463
2,311
2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-5.5%
-1.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.24
3.16
3.74
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
11.39
11.38
15.28
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.01
11.02
14.41
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
319
314
489
398
386
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
5
7
7
5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
325
319
496
405
391
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
107.1
108.1
108.3
105.6
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.9
9.8
9.1
N/A
9.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.1
118.0
117.4
N/A
106.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.8
3.8
N/A
3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
6.6
6.4
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.7
18.5
15.5
12.6
U.S. Commercial
20.9
17.3
13.1
18.2
14.6
U.S. Residential
35.7
28.4
21.1
30.8
24.0
U.S. Power Plant
39.6
32.6
29.1
24.6
31.8
U.S. Industrial
26.8
25.5
24.0
26.1
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.5
3.0
2.5
3.5
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
131.9
112.2
95.3
108.6
105.2
Total U.S. Demand
159.8
141.3
124.0
N/A
126.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
94
93
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
93
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
97
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Feb 13
Week ended Feb 6
2025
2024
2023
Wind
13
9
11
11
10
Solar
5
4
6
5
4
Hydro
6
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
1
1
0
0
0
Natural Gas
36
40
40
42
41
Coal
19
21
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
18
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.25
3.18
4.19
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
4.24
3.67
4.90
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.31
2.39
3.78
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.93
2.91
4.03
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.02
3.02
4.19
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
12.19
12.10
13.65
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.01
3.01
4.19
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-0.88
-0.66
2.76
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.21
1.21
1.53
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
94.83
102.74
134.58
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
60.56
48.26
53.89
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
28.72
30.79
67.87
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
25.64
32.00
29.05
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
24.66
33.35
25.19
28.44
53.02

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul, David Gregorio, Rod Nickel)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))