US natgas futures settle up over 6%, tracking global energy price gains (updated)

US Global Investors

11/03/2026 19:21

Adds closing prices

By Anjana Anil

March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled more than 6% higher on Wednesday as global energy prices climbed, with traders closely monitoring the Middle East conflict to gauge supply disruptions and its impact on the market.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded settled 6.3% higher to $3.209 per million British thermal units. Prices had risen to a more than one-month high on Monday.

"In the medium term, we see support from increasing domestic demand for data-centre power generation, heating/cooling and export demand for LNG, which should ramp up in the coming months with the first cargoes from Golden Pass LNG," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note.

"European gas prices have been much more sensitive to U.S.-Iran developments, although we still expect Europe to source its gas predominantly from the U.S. this summer to replenish tight storage inventories."

U.S. prices have moved in response to the Iran war, but not nearly as sharply as in Europe or Asia. The U.S. produces enough gas to cover its own demand, limiting the domestic shock.

However, it has little spare capacity to quickly lift output of LNG and offset lost supply after Qatar halted production due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to Reuters calculations and industry analysts.

Since the U.S. and Israel started air strikes on Iran on February 28 , U.S. gas prices have gained about 9% versus around 52% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 48% in Asia JKMc1.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose marginally to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

U.S. energy firms likely pulled an above-normal 121 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended February 27, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll released last week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 111.8 bcfd this week to 124.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slipped to 18.2 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

Benchmark European and British wholesale gas prices rose on Wednesday morning after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over LNG supply. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 6 Forecast
Week ended Feb 27 Actual
Year ago Mar 6
Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-53
-132
-64
-64
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,833
1,886
1,707
1,865
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-1.7%
-2.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.12
3.13
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
16.66
16.47
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
15.92
16.23
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
250
246
241
360
360
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
31
30
10
9
6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
281
276
251
369
366
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.8
109.9
109.9
106.1
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.3
7.4
8.5
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.1
117.3
118.3
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.7
4.3
4.2
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.8
6.8
6.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.2
18.3
18.7
15.5
13.2
U.S. Commercial
12.5
9.6
13.4
10.9
12.1
U.S. Residential
18.9
13.4
20.2
16.6
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
31.7
28.4
28.7
30.4
31.8
U.S. Industrial
24.1
23.2
24.9
23.7
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.5
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
95.3
82.4
95.3
89.6
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
124.0
111.8
124.9
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
98
101
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
98
101
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
102
106
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 13
Week ended Mar 6
2025
2024
2023
Wind
18
13
11
11
10
Solar
7
7
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
34
38
40
42
41
Coal
13
15
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.08
3.25
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.19
2.25
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.65
1.78
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.15
2.20
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.66
2.81
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.38
2.44
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.26
2.39
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-5.40
-7.15
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.69
1.45
1.47
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
42.00
39.00
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
55.93
46.43
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
11.03
17.43
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
11.04
7.91
23.31
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
6.46
7.85
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and David Gregorio)

 ((Anjana.Anil@thomsonreuters.com;))