US natgas futures slip on prospect of warmer weather and slower demand (updated)

US Global Investors

02/01/2026 20:35

Analyst cites talk of 'a potential glut'

Number of heating days expected to be lower

Dutch and British gas prices rise on colder weather

Adds closing prices

By Noel John

Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures began the year on a weak note on Friday, weighed down by forecasts for warmer weather and expectations of slower demand growth.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 6.8 cents, or 1.8%, lower at $3.618 per million British thermal units. The contract posted a 1.5% gain in 2025, after rising over 44% in 2024.

"There were concerns that the La Nina was breaking down a little bit, leading to warmer temperatures. There's also some concern internationally of LNG supplies supposedly building faster than anticipated, talk of a potential glut in the making in the international market," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

"The market is going to try to stabilize at this point until we get further direction of what the weather is going to be."

WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

Meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through January 16, with Heating Degree Days falling from 413 on Wednesday to 369 on Friday. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.

"With each passing day of extended warmer than normal outlooks, this market has the potential of declining further with February futures potentially sliding back to the pre-Christmas lows of about $3.47," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

Financial firm LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 110 billion cubic feet per day in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd, while average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export facilities climbed to 18.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December, exceeding November's record of 18.2 bcfd.

LSEG also projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would largely be steady at 133.2 bcfd next week, but below its Wednesday's projection of 134.5 bcfd.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said energy firms withdrew 38 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended December 26. EIA/GAS

That was below the 50-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 112 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 120 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024).

Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose as cooler than usual temperatures for the time of year boosted gas demand for heating.NG/EU

Elsewhere, China received 22 shipments of liquefied natural gas last year from two export projects in Russia that are under sanctions from the United States and European Union, ship-tracking data showed.

Week ended Dec 26 Actual
Week ended Dec 19 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 26
Five-year average Dec 26
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-38
-166
-112
-120
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,375
3,413
3,430
3,317
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
1.6%
-0.7%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.69
3.97
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.84
9.80
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.61
9.57
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
369
413
438
385
398
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
4
6
0
3
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
373
419
438
388
401
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
111.1
109.2
109.4
N/A
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.9
9.0
8.9
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
121.0
118.2
118.3
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.2
3.6
3.6
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.6
5.7
5.7
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.1
18.4
18.0
N/A
12.8
U.S. Commercial
14.1
15.4
15.5
N/A
14.9
U.S. Residential
22.4
25.3
25.8
N/A
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
29.4
31.7
31.1
N/A
33.6
U.S. Industrial
24.7
25.0
25.1
N/A
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.4
N/A
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.6
2.8
2.8
N/A
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
N/A
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
98.9
105.8
105.9
N/A
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
126.8
133.4
133.2
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
-
99
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
-
98
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
-
102
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 02
Week ended Dec 26
2024
2023
2022
Wind
14
15
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
36
34
42
41
38
Coal
17
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
21
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.00
4.40
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
4.28
4.55
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.98
3.02
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.67
3.67
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.08
3.75
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
18.9
16.75
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.63
3.61
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.39
0.72
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
2.53
2.56
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
-
142.93
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
62.91
56.21
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
26.58
31.13
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
26.67
28.33
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
34.38
38.99
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis and David Gregorio)

 ((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))