US natgas futures surge over 68% this week on frigid weather forecasts (updated)

US Global Investors

23/01/2026 20:08

Updates with latest prices

By Noel John

Jan 23 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures rose 4.6% on Friday, pushing the weekly gain past 68%, lifted by forecasts for extreme cold over the next two weeks that is seen driving heating demand close to levels while freezing oil and gas wells, cutting output.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 23 cents to settle at $5.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

"Henry Hub pricing swung significantly higher this week largely on colder weather forecasts across the U.S. in the near-term, and supported by LNG feedgas demand," RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Friday.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 6, as Heating Degree Days (HDDs) stood at 581 on Friday, exceeding the near-normal level of 395. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.

During extreme cold, there are real concerns about equipment freezing — from hydrating wells to pipelines — and that's going to keep the market well supported, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, the U.S. power grid faces an elevated risk of disruption over the next several days as an Arctic blast and reduced gas supplies test the sturdiness of electric infrastructure vulnerable to the around-the-clock demands of data centers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration storage release on Thursday showed energy firms pulled just 120 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 16 when the weather was still warmer than normal.

That reading was bigger than the 106-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, but below a decline of 228 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 191 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

"Even allowing for some temperature moderation through the first week of next month, the magnitude of this current cold spell will be prompting some huge storage withdrawals during the next few weeks," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has slid to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 173 bcfd this week to 156 bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have held at 18.6 bcfd so far in January, matching the monthly record high set in December.

Elsewhere, benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were steady, due to a warmer-than-expected February forecast, even as concerns remained around cold temperatures in the U.S. and a possible impact on liquefied natural gas exports. NG/EU

Week ended Jan 16 Actual
Week ended Jan 9 Actual
Year ago 
Jan 16
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 16
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-120
-71
-228
-191
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,065
3,185
2,924
2,888
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.1%
+3.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
5.05
5.55
3.72
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
13.30
13.33
14.67
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.22
11.34
14.16
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
581
592
351
377
395
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
1
1
5
3
2
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
582
593
356
340
397
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.0
106.7
107.6
101.1
98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.7
9.8
8.7
N/A
9.6
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.8
116.6
116.4
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
2.5
2.6
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.1
5.9
5.8
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.8
18.1
13.4
12.8
U.S. Commercial
15.9
25.1
21.0
23.2
17.3
U.S. Residential
26.5
44.5
36.5
41.0
29.9
U.S. Power Plant
32.1
38.5
36.0
40.9
32.5
U.S. Industrial
25.4
28.4
27.0
27.7
26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.9
3.9
3.4
2.9
4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
108.3
145.8
129.4
141.2
115.5
Total U.S. Demand
136.6
173.0
156
N/A
137.0
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
94
94
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
93
94
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
99
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 23
Week ended Jan 16
2025
2024
2023
Wind
12
13
11
11
10
Solar
4
5
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
36
40
42
41
Coal
19
17
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
20
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
8.42
4.96
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
12.57
4.72
8.77
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.95
2.99
3.87
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
8.36
4.52
3.74
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
15.88
4.83
3.93
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
24.96
12.55
15.67
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.42
3.69
4.49
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.58
1.48
3.27
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
3.20
1.98
1.22
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
171.36
100.75
147.88
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
89.67
49.48
75.11
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
53.93
40.70
52.79
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
53
36.50
44.47
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
50.20
40.71
39.98
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Noel John and Anushree Mukherjee, Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)

 ((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))