US natgas hits 17-month low on mild weather, ample stockpiles (updated)

US Global Investors

10/04/2026 19:52

Mild weather and low demand boost gas storage above 5-year average

Waha Hub prices remain negative for record 45 days due to Permian pipeline constraints

US gas output rises in April but daily production dips on Louisiana, Wyoming reductions

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday to a 17-month low on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week that would allow utilities to keep adding more gas to stockpiles than usual for at least a few more weeks.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.2 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.648 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 29, 2024.

The front-month contract remained technically oversold for a second straight day, for the first time since December 2025.

For the week, the contract was on track to decline about 5% after losing about 10% last week.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 45 straight days as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 54 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.41 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.

Daily output was on track to drop by 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary two-week low of 108.9 bcfd on Friday due mostly to reductions in Louisiana and Wyoming. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.

Analysts projected that mostly mild spring weather has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 5.3% above normal levels during the week ended April 10, up from 4.8% above normal during the week ended April 3. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 25, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 108.2 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd next week before rising to 101.6 bcfd. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.

Week ended April 10 Forecast
Week ended April 3 Actual
Year ago April 10
Five-year average (2021-2025) April 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+50
+50
+22
+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,961
1,911
1,844
1,862
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.3%
+4.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.67
2.67
3.43
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
15.36
15.78
11.48
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
19.50
19.49
12.23
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
105
112
176
173
160
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
57
55
33
32
30
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
162
167
209
205
190
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.9
111.1
111.1
105.9
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.9
6.8
6.7
N/A
7.5
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
117.9
118.1
117.2
N/A
107.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.4
2.5
2.4
N/A
2.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.6
6.0
6.2
N/A
6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.9
18.6
18.7
16.5
13.1
U.S. Commercial
8.9
8.9
6.6
10.5
8.6
U.S. Residential
11.9
12.0
8.1
15.2
11.4
U.S. Power Plant
29.0
28.9
27.5
30.1
27.2
U.S. Industrial
23.2
23.4
22.4
24.0
23.3
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.2
3.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
80.8
81.0
72.1
87.5
79.0
Total U.S. Demand
108.8
108.2
99.4
N/A
100.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
96
95
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
99
98
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
102
102
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Apr 10
Week ended Apr 3
2025
2024
2023
Wind
16
18
11
11
10
Solar
9
8
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
2
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
35
40
42
41
Coal
12
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.78
2.78
3.41
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.93
2.26
2.81
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.30
1.30
2.63
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.98
2.08
2.69
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.38
2.38
3.03
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.24
2.62
3.15
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.15
2.13
2.94
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-4.06
-4.58
1.38
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.93
0.99
1.60
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
45.98
44.56
42.26
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
47.01
47.01
50.50
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
18.00
13.73
26.45
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
10.03
17.06
25.26
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
6.29
9.35
9.76
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Rod Nickel and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))