US natgas near 3-month low on record output, lower LNG flows (updated)

US Global Investors

29/07/2026 19:57

Sempra says Costa Azul export plant in Mexico expected to return in fourth quarter of 2026
September gas traded at a record premium to expiring August for a fifth day
Average 12-month futures strip fell to lowest level since November 2024
Adds closing prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up but held near a three-month low on Wednesday on record output, lower flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and ample amounts of gas in storage.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled 6.3 cent, or 2.4% higher at $2.725 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after touching its lowest level since April 30 earlier in the session.
Futures for September, which will soon be the front-month contract, held around $2.72 per mmBtu, putting the premium of the September over August NGQ26-U26 at a record high for a fifth day in a row.
In a sign that the market is not too worried about gas supplies over the next year, the average of futures over the next 12 months NG12Mst fell to $3.12 per mmBtu, its lowest since November 2024.
     
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 110.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, putting production in line to match the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said gas inventories have remained higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since the spring when the weather was mild, allowing energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
Now, as they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 24, up from 6.4% above normal during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
That inventory surplus has continued due in part to near-record output despite weeks of above-normal temperatures so far this summer.
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 13, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 110.6 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to 17.2 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
In other LNG news, California energy firm Sempra Energy SRE.N said its Sempra Infrastructure unit shut the 0.4-bcfd Energia Costa Azul export plant in Mexico due to damage to the project's refrigerant compressors after the facility shipped its first cargo earlier in July.
Costa Azul, which consumes U.S. gas from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, is on track to return in the fourth quarter of 2026.
     
 
Week ended Jul 24 Forecast
Week ended Jul 17 Actual
Year ago Jul 24
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 24
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+34
+32
+44
+26
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,090
3,056
3,116
2,899
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.6%
+6.4%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.65
2.66
3.30
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
19.91
18.70
9.98
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
21.33
21.43
12.53
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
1
1
2
2
4
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
238
237
209
209
197
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
239
238
211
211
201
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.7
111.7
111.5
108.3
101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.1
7.3
7.6
N/A
8.2
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
117.8
119.0
119.1
N/A
109.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.3
2.2
2.2
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.0
7.1
7.1
N/A
6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.9
17.3
17.2
15.0
11.0
U.S. Commercial
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
U.S. Power Plant
46.9
46.6
48.7
50.2
46.1
U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.6
21.7
22.2
21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
84.2
84.0
86.2
88.2
84.9
Total U.S. Demand
110.4
110.6
112.7
N/A
104.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
83
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended July 31
Week ended July 24
2025
2024
2023
Wind
9
7
11
11
10
Solar
8
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
44
44
40
42
41
Coal
17
18
18
16
17
Nuclear
17
17
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.65
2.63
3.20
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.05
2.10
2.87
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.08
3.25
3.45
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.95
2.00
2.61
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.49
2.63
2.95
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.25
2.33
4.50
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.89
4.22
3.70
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.84
2.20
1.57
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.13
1.11
0.51
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
51.31
55.52
89.06
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
57.28
64.66
87.25
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
65.49
49.43
52.17
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
70.38
74.40
48.82
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
50.94
50.41
33.95
28.44
53.02
     

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))