US natgas prices ease on record output, milder weather forecasts (updated)

US Global Investors

17/08/2026 20:25

Adds latest prices
By Noel John
Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell to a more than one-week low on Monday, pressured by record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in the coming weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.69 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest since August 7. 
"Over the weekend we got some weather model moderation and the storage injection schedule over the next few weeks rose, which is indicating more of a bearish market condition," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.     
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was up to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.
Record output and mild spring weather this year have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.
Meteorologists forecast milder weather than previously expected nationwide in the coming weeks, as Cooling Degree Days fell to 216 on Monday from 222 on Friday. CDDs measure energy demand to cool buildings.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slip from 114.2 bcfd this week to 113 bcfd next week. 
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants stand at 17.3 bcfd so far in August, up from 17.2 bcfd in July and slightly lower from a monthly record high of 17.4 bcfd in June.
"Today's lower prices are setting the market up for a test of nearest support at the $2.62 level that is beginning to appear vulnerable to violation with the current temperature outlooks beginning to suggest increased possibility of a decline to long-term price support at the $2.50 area," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note. 
In other news, some 217,000 homes and businesses were still without power on Monday after severe storms battered the U.S. Midwest, according to data from PowerOutage.us. Depending on the length of those outages, the amount of gas burned to produce electricity could decline this week.    
     
 
Week ended Aug 14 Forecast
Week ended  Aug 7 Actual
Year ago Aug 14 
Five-year average (2021-2025) Aug 14
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+21
+33
+19
+29
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,174
3,153
3,197
2,984
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.4%
+6.7%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.68
2.75
2.89
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
21.38
20.69
11.13
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
21.41
21.20
11.63
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
4
5
8
4
6
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
216
222
148
163
154
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
220
227
156
167
160
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
111.7
112.6
112.2
107.8
101.7
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.4
7.1
7.6
N/A
7.7
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
119.1
119.7
119.8
N/A
109.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.6
2.5
2.6
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.5
7.3
7.4
N/A
6.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
17.3
17.7
17.5
16.3
11.4
U.S. Commercial
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
U.S. Power Plant
49.7
48.9
47.7
48.8
45.3
U.S. Industrial
21.8
21.8
21.8
22.2
21.1
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
87.5
86.7
85.6
86.8
83.2
Total U.S. Demand
115
114.2
113.0
N/A
103.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
82
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Aug 21
Week ended Aug 14
2025
2024
2023
Wind
7
9
11
11
10
Solar
8
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
44
44
40
42
41
Coal
18
17
18
16
17
Nuclear
17
16
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.79
2.77
2.91
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.87
1.83
2.23
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.16
3.14
3.23
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.82
1.81
2.06
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.57
2.56
2.63
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.92
1.95
2.55
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.72
3.63
3.41
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.00
2.03
1.57
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.33
1.01
0.51
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
53.98
45.55
59.26
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
88.97
60.19
46.80
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
61.56
52.81
50.02
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
60.18
47.00
51.19
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
42.94
36.77
38.33
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Noel John;
Editing by Helen Popper and David Gregorio)
 ((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))