US natgas prices fall 4% after heat wave, drop in oil prices (updated)

US Global Investors

20/05/2026 20:17

Milder weather and holiday expected to reduce US gas demand after heatwave

Gas prices also pressured by 6% oil drop after Trump comments on Iran talks

LSEG reports US gas output, LNG exports down in May due to plant maintenance

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Wednesday with the approach of milder, more spring-like weather and the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, which together should depress gas demand after a heat wave blasted the Mid-Atlantic region this week.

Analysts also cited a 6%
drop in oil prices
 CLc1, LCOc1 after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the "
final stages
".

After rising for five days in a row, front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.0 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $3.004 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since March 19.

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 4.

RECORD HEAT IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

Temperatures in Washington, D.C., were on track to hit 96 degrees Fahrenheit (35.6 degrees Celsius) on Wednesday after hitting a record-breaking 97 F on Tuesday before dropping to 70 F on Thursday and 61 F on Friday and Saturday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather.

That compares with the prior all-time high of 96 F on May 19 in 1997 and 96 F on May 20 in 1996. The normal high in the nation's capital around this time of year is 77 F.

To escape the heat, homes and businesses in the PJM power grid, which includes Washington, cranked up their air conditioners, boosting spot prices by 449% earlier this week to $229 per megawatt-hour, the highest since January. PJM manages the grid in all or part of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 98.3 bcfd this week to 97.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.

Week ended May 15 Forecast
Week ended May 8 Actual
Year ago May 15
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+85
+85
+119
+92
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,375
2,290
2,358
2,242
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.9%
+6.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.11
3.11
3.46
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
17.30
17.43
11.68
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
19.61
18.96
11.83
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
27
31
41
44
45
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
129
126
91
102
97
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
156
157
132
146
142
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.1
109.5
110.0
106.2
100.1
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.8
6.5
6.6
N/A
7.3
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
115.9
115.9
116.6
N/A
107.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.7
2.7
2.7
N/A
2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.4
7.4
7.2
N/A
6.5
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.7
16.7
17.2
15.2
12.9
U.S. Commercial
5.7
5.2
4.8
5.7
5.9
U.S. Residential
6.1
5.0
4.4
5.9
6.3
U.S. Power Plant
30.7
32.1
32.6
32.5
30.6
U.S. Industrial
22.1
21.8
21.6
22.7
22.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
72.1
71.5
70.8
74.2
73.0
Total U.S. Demand
98.9
98.3
97.8
N/A
94.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
88
88
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
92
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
97
97
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended May 22
Week ended May 15
2025
2024
2023
Wind
17
15
11
11
10
Solar
8
11
6
5
4
Hydro
6
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
35
40
42
41
Coal
14
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.23
3.07
3.12
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.39
2.38
2.35
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.60
1.52
2.89
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.29
2.17
2.25
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.65
2.53
2.86
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.57
2.99
2.82
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.40
2.20
2.98
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-2.73
-3.21
1.34
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.14
1.11
1.32
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
79.09
89.99
40.31
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
110.37
228.78
43.04
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
20.22
7.31
39.90
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
20.25
10.00
29.10
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
6.84
3.81
17.36
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))