US natgas prices rise to seven-week high on LNG export hopes (updated)

US Global Investors

31/08/2026 19:50

October-November spread shrank to record 13 cents, signaling limited winter supply anxiety
European and Asian gas benchmarks hovered near 43-month highs around $24 and $23
August contract rebounded about 7% after July's roughly 16% decline
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a seven-week high on Monday on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter than normal through mid-September and expectations that the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants will rise in coming weeks.
Gas futures were also supported by a 3% rise in oil prices CLc1, LCOc1 after the U.S. and Iran resumed military attacks. O/R
Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 4.7 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.935 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 10.
For the month, the contract gained about 7% in August after dropping about 16% in July.
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for November over October NGV26-X26 fell to a record low of around 13 cents per mmBtu, a sign the market is not too worried about supplies meeting demand this winter.
Traders use the October-November spread to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand.
October is the last month of the April-October summer cooling season when demand for gas is generally low and utilities inject gas into storage. November is the first month of the November-March winter heating season when demand for the fuel is higher and utilities pull gas from storage.
It would be unusual for a summer season month like October to trade over a winter month like November.
     
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.
Record output and mild spring weather this year have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
Analysts said the amount of gas in storage would likely ease to 4.8% above normal during the week ended August 28, down from 5.5% above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of the weekly federal inventory report on Thursday. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through September 15, forcing power generators to continue burning significant volumes of gas to keep air conditioners running. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 111.4 bcfd this week to 109.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
     
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.2 bcfd so far in August, the same as July. That is still well below April's monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas rose close to a two-month high of around 18.4 bcfd.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.
Around the world, gas was trading near 43-month highs of around $24 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $23 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
     
 
Week ended Aug 28 Forecast
Week ended  Aug 21 Actual
Year ago Aug 28
Five-year average (2021-2025) Aug 28
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+34
+15
+50
+37
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,218
3,184
3,264
3,054
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.8%
+5.5%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.90
2.89
2.89
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
22.47
23.27
11.13
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
23.18
23.41
11.63
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
9
8
17
14
18
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
194
208
130
157
140
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
203
216
147
171
158
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
111.1
111.8
111.5
107.7
101.7
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.6
7.2
7.4
N/A
7.7
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
117.8
119.0
118.8
N/A
109.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.6
2.5
2.5
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.8
7.5
7.6
N/A
6.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
17.0
18.4
17.8
15.8
11.4
U.S. Commercial
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
U.S. Power Plant
47.5
45.2
43.2
40.3
45.3
U.S. Industrial
21.8
21.9
21.8
22.0
21.1
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
85.3
83.1
81.1
78.5
83.2
Total U.S. Demand
112.8
111.4
109.0
N/A
103.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
82
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Sep 4
Week ended Aug 28
2025
2024
2023
Wind
12
7
11
11
10
Solar
8
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
41
45
40
42
41
Coal
16
17
18
16
17
Nuclear
18
17
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.82
2.89
2.91
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.70
1.86
2.23
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.59
3.75
3.23
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.65
1.68
2.06
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.56
2.65
2.63
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.90
2.05
2.55
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.21
4.70
3.41
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.09
2.18
1.57
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.84
0.94
0.51
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
55.50
57.73
59.26
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
117.68
55.05
46.80
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
59.91
49.23
50.02
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
51.67
79.08
51.19
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
42.59
61.04
38.33
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))