US natural gas futures climb 2% on near-record LNG export flows (updated)

US Global Investors

19/12/2025 20:23

LNG export flows near record highs

Gas output remains at record levels in Lower 48 states, LSEG reports

Energy Transfer suspends Lake Charles LNG plant development to focus on pipelines

Adds closing prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday on near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and near-record output.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.6 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $3.984 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

That price increase pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory.

For the week, the contract was down about 3% after dropping around 22% last week.

Looking forward, gas futures for calendar 2026 NGCALYZ6 fell to a 13-month low of $3.73 per mmBtu. That compares with a futures average of $3.60 so far in 2025, $2.41 in 2024, and $3.52 over the prior five years (2019-2023).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states held at 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, the same as November's monthly record high.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 3, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.6 bcfd this week to 127.5 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

That increase in LNG feedgas came despite what analysts called small gas flow declines at U.S. energy firm Venture Global's VG.N 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu and 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plants in Louisiana in recent days. Officials at Venture Global were not immediately available for comment on the reductions.

In other LNG news, U.S. energy firm Energy Transfer ET.N said on Thursday it was suspending the development of its Lake Charles LNG export plant in Louisiana to focus on its investments in its pipeline business.

Week ended Dec 19 Forecast
Week ended Dec 12 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 19
Five-year average Dec 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-154
-167
-98
-110
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,425
3,579
3,542
3,437
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-0.3%
+0.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.94
3.91
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.72
9.39
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.56
9.54
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
327
341
339
402
443
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
7
7
6
5
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
334
348
345
407
446
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
109.3
109.1
104.4
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.2
10.4
9.3
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.1
119.8
118.4
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.5
3.6
3.8
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
5.3
5.9
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.9
18.3
18.2
14.3
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.5
17.9
14.5
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.6
30.1
23.6
23.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
34.8
34.8
28.7
33.1
33.6
U.S. Industrial
25.9
26.0
24.6
24.8
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.1
2.6
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.5
117.4
99.5
105.2
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
145.2
144.6
127.4
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
101
102
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
101
102
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
104
105
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 19
Week ended Dec 12
2024
2023
2022
Wind
12
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
6
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
39
42
41
38
Coal
19
20
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
3.87
3.66
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
3.84
3.62
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
2.99
3.03
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
3.41
3.19
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
3.53
3.35
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
5.33
4.20
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
3.22
3.29
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
0.70
1.26
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
2.16
2.07
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
65.61
54.91
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
51.82
54.97
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
20.45
25.30
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
20.10
25.75
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
30.77
35.04
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Diane Craft)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))