US natural gas futures dip 3% to six-week low on mild weather (updated)

US Global Investors

16/12/2025 19:55

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand

Record gas output allows for ample storage

Global gas prices decline amid mild winter and Ukraine peace hopes

LNG export feedgas near record high

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Tuesday to a six-week low, on milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks, the shutdown of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG, and ample amounts of gas in storage.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.6 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $3.886 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 29.

        That kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a third day in a row for the first time since April.

Looking forward, gas futures for calendar 2026 NGCALYZ6 fell to a one-year low of $3.75 per mmBtu. That compares with an average of $3.60 so far in 2025, $2.41 in 2024, and $3.52 over the prior five years (2019-2023).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a six-week low of 107.4 bcfd, down about 3.9 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28. That decline was due in part to some frozen wells in Pennsylvania, Wyoming and West Virginia, according to data from LSEG and analysts' comments.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual so far this year, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 1% above normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 31, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 146.1 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while the forecast for next week was lower.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In other LNG export news, Freeport LNG said one of the three liquefaction trains at its LNG export plant in Texas shut on Tuesday.

Gas was trading near a 19-month low of around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a 20-month low of around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia. NG/EU

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with the slow start of the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

Week ended Dec 12 Forecast
Week ended Dec 5 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 12
Five-year average Dec 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-153
-177
-134
-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,593
3,746
3,640
3,547
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+1.3%
+2.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.01
3.94
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.30
9.30
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.68
10.66
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
343
368
339
402
440
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
7
8
6
5
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
350
376
345
407
443
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
109.0
108.9
104.4
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.2
10.2
9.2
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.1
119.3
118.2
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.5
3.3
3.3
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
5.4
6.0
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.9
18.5
18.3
14.3
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.5
18.2
14.8
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.6
30.9
24.4
23.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
34.8
34.9
30.4
33.1
33.6
U.S. Industrial
25.9
26.1
24.7
24.8
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.5
118.9
102.6
105.2
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
145.2
146.1
130.3
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
102
103
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
101
101
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
104
105
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 19
Week ended Dec 12
2024
2023
2022
Wind
11
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
39
42
41
38
Coal
20
20
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
3.90
4.07
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
7.55
10.72
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
3.36
3.47
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
3.32
3.86
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
3.36
4.43
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
16.50
19.94
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
3.57
3.77
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
0.95
-1.06
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
1.88
2.31
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
171.00
163.25
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
99.81
170.08
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
18.59
19.12
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
24.70
26.39
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
33.10
38.04
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))