US natural gas futures dive 9% to 12-week low on decline in LNG export flows (updated)

US Global Investors

14/01/2026 16:53

Daily LNG export flows fall to preliminary two-month low

Colder weather forecast boosts heating demand next week

Waha Hub prices below zero again due to pipeline constraints

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 9% to a 12-week low
on Wednesday on a drop in preliminary gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in Texas.

Limiting steeper losses was a preliminary decline in daily production and forecasts for colder weather than expected next week, which should lift heating demand.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 29.9 cents, or 8.7%, to settle at $3.12 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 17.

Share prices for the two biggest U.S. gas producers also dropped. Expand Energy EXE.O fell about 2% to its lowest since October and EQT EQT.N tumbled about 3% to its lowest since September.

In the cash gas market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for the fifth time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Waha prices have averaged a negative 17 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in January from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 107.4 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas and Wyoming, according to LSEG data, from 109.3 bcfd on Tuesday and a record 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through January 29, with the most frigid days expected around January 17-21, which includes the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend on January 17-19.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.2 bcfd this week to 151.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

But on a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 17.4 bcfd on Wednesday due to declines at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas, down from 18.3 bcfd on Tuesday and a record 19.5 bcfd on January 12.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, a three-month high, and around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Jan 9 Forecast
Week ended Jan 2 Actual
Year ago 
Jan 9
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-90
-119
-227
-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,166
3,256
3,152
3,079
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+2.8%
+1.0%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.35
3.42
3.72
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
11.16
10.62
14.67
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.61
9.61
14.16
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
489
470
538
440
460
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
4
4
0
3
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
493
474
538
443
463
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.3
109.3
109.6
103.5
98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.3
9.7
9.7
N/A
9.6
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
119.6
119.0
119.4
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.0
3.9
4.0
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.8
5.9
5.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.5
17.5
15.1
12.8
U.S. Commercial
15.0
15.8
20.7
19.1
17.3
U.S. Residential
24.4
26.2
35.2
34.9
29.9
U.S. Power Plant
31.4
32.1
32.8
37.7
32.5
U.S. Industrial
24.9
25.3
26.9
26.3
26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.8
2.9
3.3
2.8
4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
104.0
107.8
124.6
126.3
115.5
Total U.S. Demand
132.3
136.2
151.8
N/A
137.0
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
100
99
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
99
99
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
103
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 16
Week ended Jan 9
2025
2024
2023
Wind
12
14
11
11
10
Solar
5
5
6
5
4
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
35
40
42
41
Coal
16
15
18
16
17
Nuclear
21
22
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL'
3.00
2.90
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL'
2.90
2.60
8.77
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL'
2.16
2.25
3.87
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL'
2.70
2.33
3.74
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL'
2.85
2.59
3.93
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL'
5.09
5.47
15.67
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL'
2.93
2.94
4.49
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL'
-0.50
-0.21
3.27
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL'
1.32
1.31
1.22
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX'
68.88
68.46
147.88
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX'
36.13
33.78
75.11
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX'
19.05
17.65
52.79
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX'
20.61
23.08
44.47
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX'
23.11
25.29
39.98
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Rod Nickel and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))