US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts (updated)

US Global Investors

20/03/2026 18:48

U.S. natural gas futures fall 2% on rising output, mild weather forecasts

Waha Hub prices negative for 31 days due to pipeline constraints

U.S. LNG exports remain high as global price surges from Iran war

Adds closing prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Friday on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.1 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $3.095 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest price since March 12.

That move put the front-month down about 1% so far this week after it lost about 2% last week.

In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have been in negative territory for a record 31 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, ample cheap hydropower supplies and low demand cut next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon to $2.62 per megawatt hour (MWh), the lowest level since May 2023.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Even though March is part of the winter heating season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet demand, mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to inject gas into storage.

Analysts forecast that slightly cooler weather this week prompted energy firms to pull some gas from storage, cutting stockpiles from about 3% above normal levels during the week ended March 13 to around near-normal levels during the week ended March 20. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Looking forward, meteorologists forecast weather would remain warmer than normal through April 4, keeping heating demand low in coming weeks.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 122.8 bcfd this week to 110.4 bcfd next week before edging up to 112.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants have slid to 18.5 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas. Past gas price spikes were due primarily to supply disruptions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In recent weeks, the war in Iran caused global gas prices TRNLTTFMc1, JKMc1 to surge again by knocking out LNG supplies from Qatar, which provides about 20% of the world's LNG.

Week ended Mar 20 Forecast
Week ended Mar 13 Actual
Year ago Mar 20
Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-62
+35
+33
-21
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,821
1,883
1,739
1,815
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+0.3%
+2.6%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.12
3.17
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
20.91
20.67
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
22.35
20.18
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
192
202
204
254
244
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
40
42
20
17
15
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
232
244
224
271
259
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.0
109.6
109.1
106.4
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.4
7.6
7.9
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
117.4
117.2
117.0
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.2
3.3
3.5
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.9
6.5
6.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.5
18.7
16.1
13.2
U.S. Commercial
9.8
12.9
9.3
10.7
12.1
U.S. Residential
13.9
19.3
12.8
16.3
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
28.5
29.4
28.4
28.2
31.8
U.S. Industrial
23.3
24.6
23.2
23.9
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.5
2.2
2.2
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
83.3
94.3
81.5
86.8
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
112.8
122.8
110.4
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
100
100
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
100
100
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
105
105
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 20
Week ended Mar 13
2025
2024
2023
Wind
15
17
11
11
10
Solar
8
7
6
5
4
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
34
40
42
41
Coal
14
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
20
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.21
3.12
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.40
2.54
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.79
1.62
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.30
2.43
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.74
2.72
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.79
3.15
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.43
2.26
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-3.78
-3.67
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.40
1.28
1.47
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
46.01
50.59
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
43.30
62.87
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
2.62
8.98
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
32.29
34.07
23.31
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
16.26
21.45
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Dave Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))