US natural gas futures drop 7% for second day as mild weather trims demand (updated)

US Global Investors

09/12/2025 19:55

Near-record gas output allows for increased storage levels

Meteorologists project mild US weather through late December

Global gas prices at 19-month lows on Ukraine peace talks, mild winter

Gas flows to LNG export plants near record high

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% for the second straight day to a one-week low on Tuesday, on more moderate two-week forecasts for weather and demand, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower prices around the world.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 33.8 cents, or 6.9%, to settle at $4.574 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since November 26.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states held at 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, the same as November's monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall to around 108.4 bcfd on Tuesday, putting it down about 2.8 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 5% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 24, reducing the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 143.7 bcfd this week to 142.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

In LNG news, Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Tuesday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains returned to service after shutting down on Monday.

The Imsaikah LNG vessel, meanwhile, docked at Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data.

The ship is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the plant's commissioning. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.

Around the world, gas prices held near 19-month lows of about $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia.

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with a slow start to the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future. NG/EU

Week ended Dec 5 Forecast
Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 5
Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-112
-12
-167
-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,811
3,923
3,774
3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.6%
+5.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.80
4.91
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.33
9.27
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.87
10.88
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
396
421
366
382
423
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
4
5
5
4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
402
425
371
387
427
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.3
109.7
109.6
104.6
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.8
9.8
9.4
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.2
119.6
119.0
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.5
3.4
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
6.1
6.1
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.8
19.0
18.5
13.7
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.4
17.5
17.8
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.4
29.3
29.6
25.4
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
35.0
33.9
32.6
33.9
33.6
U.S. Industrial
26.1
25.9
26.0
25.3
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.6
115.2
114.6
108.6
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
144.7
143.7
142.6
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
96
95
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
96
93
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
96
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 12
Week ended Dec 5
2024
2023
2022
Wind
11
11
11
10
11
Solar
3
3
5
4
3
Hydro
6
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
40
42
41
38
Coal
21
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
5.19
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
6.98
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.49
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
4.63
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
4.80
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
19.50
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.74
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.72
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
2.33
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
213.29
215.00
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
125.49
104.95
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
40.74
30.29
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
36.00
34.48
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
43.92
42.12
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))