US natural gas futures drop 7% to 4-month low amid near-record output, mild weather (updated)

US Global Investors

17/02/2026 19:44

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

LSEG reports record high daily gas output in Lower 48 states

Mild weather forecast to keep heating demand low through early March

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a four-month low on Tuesday on near-record daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain milder than normal through early March.

Mild weather should keep heating demand low and allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 21.2 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $3.031 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 17.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for an eighth day in a row and the 17th time so far this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.25 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to ease to 109.9 bcfd on Tuesday after reaching 111.0 bcfd on Saturday, which was the most since hitting a daily record high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 4.

There is currently about 6% less gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Analysts, however, expect that deficit to be mostly wiped out by early March. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Despite the mild weather expected, the forecasts still call for colder weather and higher demand next week than this week, which also contained the low demand U.S. Presidents' Day holiday on Monday.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.3 bcfd this week to 134.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday before the long Presidents' Day weekend.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

Week ended Feb 13 Forecast
Week ended Feb 6 Actual
Year ago Feb 13
Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-159
-249
-182
-151
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,055
2,214
2,129
2,193
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-6.3%
-5.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.13
3.24
3.74
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.55
10.71
15.28
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.52
10.99
14.41
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
334
320
407
376
367
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
7
6
3
8
6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
341
326
410
384
373
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
108.2
110.5
110.4
101.8
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.0
9.2
9.2
N/A
9.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.3
119.7
119.7
N/A
106.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
4.0
4.0
N/A
3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
6.6
6.5
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.8
18.4
15.8
12.6
U.S. Commercial
17.4
13.1
15.9
21.0
14.6
U.S. Residential
28.6
21.1
26.3
37.9
24.0
U.S. Power Plant
33.0
29.7
30.0
24.6
31.8
U.S. Industrial
25.5
24.0
25.2
27.0
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
113.0
95.9
105.8
118.9
105.2
Total U.S. Demand
142.0
125.3
134.6
N/A
126.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
94
93
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
93
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
97
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Feb 20
Week ended Feb 13
2025
2024
2023
Wind
12
11
11
11
10
Solar
5
6
6
5
4
Hydro
6
6
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
1
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
37
40
42
41
Coal
17
19
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.24
3.43
4.19
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.71
3.54
4.90
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.99
2.16
3.78
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.53
2.80
4.03
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.78
3.03
4.19
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
8.56
10.04
13.65
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.71
2.91
4.19
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-1.05
-0.88
2.76
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.15
1.21
1.53
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
80.00
90.98
134.58
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
45.02
58.83
53.89
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
32.08
28.72
67.87
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
29.30
25.64
29.05
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
33.80
24.66
25.19
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Susan Fenton and Diane Craft)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))