US natural gas futures drop 8% on mild weather forecasts, data center demand worries (updated)

US Global Investors

11/12/2025 15:31

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand

Record gas output allows for ample storage

Oracle stock prices slump on worries about AI investments

Energy firms pulled more gas than expected during cold snap last week

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 8% on Thursday to a five-week low on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, and worries about future gas demand for power generation from data centers.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 36.4 cents, or 7.9%, to settle at $4.231 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 31.

It was the biggest daily percentage drop since March 2025 and left prices down about 20% since hitting a 35-month high on December 5. The decline came despite a federal report showing a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week when extreme cold boosted the amount of gas consumers burned to heat homes and businesses.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 177 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended December 5.

That figure exceeded the 166-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decline of 167 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 89 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the stock market, Oracle ORCL.N shares slumped more than 15% earlier on Thursday, dragging other technology stocks down, as concerns mounted about Oracle's massive artificial intelligence spending and the lack of a clear timeline on returns from the investments.

Analysts said the technology stock drop could be a problem for gas prices because the two primary sources of gas demand growth in recent years have been from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and gas burned to produce electricity for power-hungry data centers.

 While LNG exports were expected to hit a record high for a 10th year in a row in 2025, the amount of gas used to generate power was on track to decline in 2025 after hitting a record high in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 3% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 26, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual during that time.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.4 bcfd this week to 143.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.7 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

In LNG news, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted a request to introduce fuel gas into the train 1 gas turbine at Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd
Golden Pass
 LNG export plant under construction in Texas. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.

Week ended Dec 5 Actual
Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 5
Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-177
-12
-167
-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,746
3,923
3,774
3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+2.8%
+5.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.48
4.60
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.20
9.17
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.78
10.85
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
381
389
366
382
429
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
9
6
5
5
4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
390
395
371
387
433
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.3
109.7
109.6
104.6
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.8
10.2
9.4
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.2
120.0
119.0
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.5
3.5
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
6.3
6.2
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.8
18.9
18.5
13.7
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.4
17.6
18.0
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.4
29.6
30.3
25.4
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
35.0
34.9
32.7
33.9
33.6
U.S. Industrial
26.1
26.0
26.0
25.3
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.6
116.7
115.7
108.6
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
144.7
145.4
143.8
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
101
96
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
98
96
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
101
98
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 12
Week ended Dec 5
2024
2023
2022
Wind
12
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
3
5
4
3
Hydro
6
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
1
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
40
42
41
38
Coal
21
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
4.62
4.76
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
5.63
5.15
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
3.75
3.87
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
4.24
4.27
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
4.35
4.32
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
20.50
16.55
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
3.72
4.10
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
-1.31
-0.98
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
2.54
2.43
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
176.72
175.17
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
94.19
80.99
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
25.67
24.39
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
26.92
34.44
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
35.86
40.06
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))