US natural gas futures edge up to 35-month high on cold snap and near-record LNG export flows (updated)

US Global Investors

04/12/2025 20:08

Adds latest prices

EIA says energy companies pulled less gas from storage than expected

Global gas prices fall on Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Cash gas prices rise to highest since last winter

Extreme cold boosts heating demand, cash prices hit highs since last winter

Small storage withdrawal and lower demand forecasts limit price increase

LSEG reports drop in U.S. gas output and LNG export flows

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a 35-month high on near-record flows of gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and as extreme cold boosted heating demand and cash prices in several regions to their highest since last winter.

 Limiting Thursday's price increase for most of the trading day were a small weekly storage withdrawal, reduced forecasts for demand over the next two weeks, ample amounts of gas in inventory and lower prices in Europe and Asia.

 Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $5.063, their highest close since December 27, 2022 for a second day in a row.

 That kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row and was the front-month's first close over the $5 per mmBtu level of
psychological technical resistance since December 2022.

 Analysts noted that Thursday could be the coldest day in December. Meteorologists expect temperatures to average about 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) on Thursday.

In New England, extreme cold so far this week caused next-day gas NG-CG-BS-SNL prices to soar to $25 per mmBtu, their highest since February 2023. That compares with an average of around $5 so far this year and about $4 over the previous five years (2020-2024).

Across the rest of North America, next-day gas prices jumped to their highest since February 2025 at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, in Pennsylvania NG-PCN-APP-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL and in Alberta NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Canada.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 3.1 bcfd to a three-week low of 108.2 bcfd on Thursday. It hit a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28. Most of the declines were in Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.5 bcfd this week to 142.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants operating in the U.S. have dropped to 18.0 bcfd so far this month, down from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

In LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel remained anchored near Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's 2.4 bcfd
Golden Pass
 LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.

 The ship is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.

 The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Thursday approved Golden Pass' request to introduce "hazardous fluids into the boiloff gas and sendout compressors, the LNG storage tanks, and the LNG pumps and receive the LNG marine vessel (i.e. cooldown cargo)."

     Around the world, gas prices fell to a 19-month low of about $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 in Europe on hopes peace talks in Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more gas in the future. NG/EU

Elsewhere, prices at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark JKMc1 in Asia slid to a three-month low near $11 per mmBtu.

Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Week ended Nov 21 Actual
Year ago Nov 28
Five-year average Nov 28
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-12
-11
-26
-43
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,923
3,935
3,941
3,732
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.1%
+4.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
5.00
5.00
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.38
9.62
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.99
11.00
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
429
430
397
360
403
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
5
5
3
6
4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
434
435
400
366
407
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.5
110.2
109.9
103.7
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.8
9.8
9.2
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
119.2
120.1
119.1
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.2
3.0
3.0
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.1
6.2
6.1
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.7
18.6
14.2
12.8
U.S. Commercial
12.1
17.4
17.5
17.5
14.9
U.S. Residential
18.9
29.4
29.1
29.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
31.4
34.9
33.7
36.3
33.6
U.S. Industrial
24.3
26.1
26.0
26.2
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.5
3.1
3.1
2.5
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
94.8
116.6
115.0
117.4
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
122.8
144.5
142.6
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
91
90
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
88
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
91
89
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 5
Week ended Nov 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
12
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
5
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
39
42
41
38
Coal
19
8
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
21
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
4.86
4.83
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
5.85
5.21
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
4.70
4.62
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
4.39
4.28
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
4.80
4.49
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
25.00
22.25
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
4.90
4.68
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
1.80
0.85
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
2.31
2.19
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
189.27
149.57
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
75.32
74.76
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
42.69
54.95
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
40.83
47.76
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
46.52
46.27
39.19
31.30
58.87

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by David Goodman and David Gregorio)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))