US natural gas futures fall 4% on record output despite cold forecast

US Global Investors

25/11/2025 14:11

Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling

Colder weather expected to increase gas demand for heating

LNG export feedgas reaches new daily high

European gas prices drop amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Tuesday on record output and ample amounts of gas in storage.

Prices dropped despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts of colder weather and higher demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.2 cents, or 3.8%, to $4.377 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since November 18.

Futures for January 2026 NGF26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 3.8% at $4.50 per mmBtu.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, output had climbed to a record 111.2 bcfd on November 24, topping the previous record daily peak of 110.8 bcfd on November 23.

Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 10.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.0 bcfd this week to 140.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. have risen to 18.0 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.7 bcfd on Tuesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15.

In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving across the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.

The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.

The U.S.became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Around the world, gas prices fell to a 16-month low near $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 in Europe on negotiations over a potential peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, while prices at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia held around a one-week low of $11. NG/EU

Week ended Nov 21 Forecast
Week ended Nov 14 Actual
Year ago Nov 21
Five-year average Nov 21
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+3
-14
-2
-25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,949
3,946
3,967
3,775
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.6%
+3.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.42
4.55
2.98
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.02
10.05
13.89
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.25
11.47
14.12
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
395
365
372
337
358
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
9
3
7
6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
401
374
375
344
364
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.5
110.5
110.2
103.6
99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.7
8.7
8.9
N/A
8.1
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
118.2
119.2
119.1
N/A
107.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.2
3.1
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.2
6.2
N/A
5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.6
18.6
13.9
12.2
U.S. Commercial
10.9
12.1
17.3
13.1
11.0
U.S. Residential
16.3
18.8
28.8
20.7
15.7
U.S. Power Plant
32.3
30.9
32.0
30.9
30.0
U.S. Industrial
23.5
24.1
25.9
24.6
24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.4
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
91.0
94.0
112.6
97.2
89.7
Total U.S. Demand
118.3
122.0
140.4
N/A
110.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
87
90
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
83
85
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
85
86
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Nov 21
Week ended Nov 14
2024
2023
2022
Wind
10
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
40
40
42
41
38
Coal
18
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.15
4.13
2.10
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.80
3.69
1.99
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.32
4.36
3.29
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.61
3.67
1.83
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.76
3.81
1.98
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.46
4.78
2.70
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.07
4.02
2.55
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.00
0.91
0.33
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
2.21
1.81
0.98
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
79.84
71.00
44.71
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
46.83
51.54
35.99
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
55.46
41.99
37.13
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
35.00
28.18
29.23
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
37.41
36.95
30.01
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York. Editing by Mark Potter)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))