US natural gas futures fall due to lower global energy prices, mild weather (updated)

US Global Investors

01/04/2026 20:25

Updates with closing prices in paragraph 2

April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged down on Wednesday, in step with a drop in global energy prices and on expectations that mild weather would squeeze demand, as traders also continued to monitor the Middle East war.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.3%, to settle at $2.819 per million British thermal units. In the previous session, the contract dropped to its lowest level since February 26.

"This market continues to swing in relatively close tandem with the large fluctuations in oil prices," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

The front-month Brent oil contract for June LCOc1 was down $1.85, or 1.8%, to $102.12 per barrel at 1414 GMT, off a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May CLc1 slipped $1.07, or around 1.1%, to $100.31 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier. O/R

Crude prices slid after U.S. President Donald Trump again suggested the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end.

"With the gas futures seeing limited support from the weather factor, we see this market as more reactive to large oil price downswings than to upswings," Ritterbusch and Associates said.

Traders await release on Thursday of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly gas storage report. EIA/GAS

U.S. energy firms are expected to have injected about 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ended March 27, according to early estimates from a Reuters poll. If accurate, inventories would rise to around 1,925 bcf, compared with a five‑year average of 1,811 bcf, according to a survey conducted by Reuters.

March is part of the winter season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet heating demand. Still, mild weather has allowed energy firms to start injecting gas into storage.

Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 107.8 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Wednesday on hopes that the war could end soon. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts
Week ended Mar 20 Actual
Year ago Mar 20
Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+33
-54
+33
-21
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,925
1,829
1,739
1,815
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.3%
+0.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.86
2.85
N/A
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
16.47
17.18
N/A
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
20.130
20.53
N/A
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
158
143
197
207
215
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
35
34
17
17
11
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
193
177
214
224
226
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
110.4
110.7
106.8
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.3
6.7
6.5
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
205.1
117.2
117.3
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.9
3.5
2.9
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
5.2
6.2
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.7
18.8
18.5
16.1
13.2
U.S. Commercial
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.8
12.1
U.S. Residential
12.0
11.7
11.7
13.9
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
29.3
28.9
27.7
29.6
31.8
U.S. Industrial
23.1
23.2
23.4
23.6
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.5
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
81.1
80.3
79.3
84.9
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
192.5
107.8
106.8
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
96
98
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
100
101
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
103
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 27
Week ended Mar 20
2025
2024
2023
Wind
16
17
11
11
10
Solar
9
8
6
5
4
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
34
34
40
42
41
Coal
13
12
18
16
17
Nuclear
18
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.88
N/A
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.93
N/A
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.56
N/A
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.81
N/A
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.26
N/A
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.05
N/A
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.10
N/A
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-3.59
N/A
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.51
N/A
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
36.09
N/A
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
2.84
N/A
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
22.96
N/A
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
31.77
N/A
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
25.08
N/A
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

 ((Anjana.Anil@thomsonreuters.com;))