US natural gas futures fall over 4% as market stabilizes following prior gains (updated)

US Global Investors

04/03/2026 19:59

Updates with closer price

March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 4% on Wednesday as the market stabilized after hitting an over one-week high in the previous session, while investors assessed Middle East supply risks amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 4.5% lower at $2.917 per million British thermal units. The contract hit its highest since February 23 in the previous session.

The U.S.–Iran war widened after a U.S. strike hit an Iranian warship off ​Sri Lanka, deepening a crisis that has paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth day and choked off ‌vital Middle East oil and gas flows.

"Given today's early price weakness, the most likely course of trade through the rest of this week could be some price consolidation between about the $2.90 level on the downside and yesterday's high ... on the upside," Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

"Market has largely shrugged off the huge price advances across the oil complex as well as European gas prices that have responded much more assertively to the US/Iran war than in the US gas market."

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has held at 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

U.S. energy firms likely pulled 55 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage last week when warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll released on Wednesday. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.3 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants have eased to 18 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), it said in a statement on Wednesday, after attacks on its production facilities amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Dutch and British gas prices were also lower on Wednesday morning, after soaring earlier this week, but could remain volatile as the market tries to gauge how long Qatari supply of LNG will remain disrupted. NG/EU

However, oil remained within sight of multi-month highs as the Middle East conflict disrupted energy flows, although prices pared gains after a report that Iranian operatives sought talks with the U.S. to end the conflict. O/R

Week ended Feb 27 Forecast
Week ended Feb 20 Actual
Year ago Feb 27
Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-125
-52
-106
-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,893
2,018
1,771
1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-1.9%
-0.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.02
3.12
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
16.93
18.70
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
15.77
13.37
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
237
218
268
325
332
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
26
29
5
7
5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
263
247
273
332
337
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.2
109.6
109.7
106.3
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.4
8.4
8.3
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.7
118.1
118.0
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.0
3.6
3.5
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
6.5
6.5
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.7
18.2
18.4
15.6
13.2
U.S. Commercial
16.1
12.5
10.0
13.9
12.1
U.S. Residential
26.2
18.9
14.3
22.0
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
32.5
31.5
28.8
30.2
31.8
U.S. Industrial
25.3
24.1
23.4
24.8
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.9
2.5
2.2
3.4
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
108.5
95.1
84.3
99.4
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
137.7
123.3
112.7
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
94
93
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
94
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
98
98
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 6
Week ended Feb 27
2025
2024
2023
Wind
11
13
11
11
10
Solar
7
6
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
2
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
37
40
42
41
Coal
16
16
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.09
2.99
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.85
2.65
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.56
1.40
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.44
2.40
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.87
2.75
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
3.5
4.81
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.05
2.18
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SN
N/A
-2.78
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.74
1.17
1.47
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
47.9
65.00
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
42.59
54.33
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
10.87
13.61
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
15.75
12.75
23.31
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
6.54
6.86
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Diane Craft)

 ((Anjana.Anil@thomsonreuters.com;))