US natural gas futures hit 2-month high, heat seen boosting power demand (updated)

US Global Investors

19/05/2026 20:15

East Coast heat wave drives power demand higher, spot prices surge in PJM grid

US gas output drops, LNG export flows fall due to plant maintenance, LSEG data shows

Despite heat, overall gas demand forecasts lowered on reduced LNG export activity

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a two-month high on Tuesday on a drop in output in recent weeks and expectations that a heat wave this week along the East Coast will boost power demand for gas to keep air conditioners humming.

That price increase came despite forecasts for less gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due primarily to a drop in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to an expected 16-week low.

Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.0 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $3.114 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest since March 19.

That also put the front-month up for a fifth day and kept it in overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since January.

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 3.

RECORD HEAT IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

Temperatures in Washington, D.C., will reach a record-breaking 99 degrees Fahrenheit (37.2 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday and a record-tying 96 F on Wednesday, after topping out at 93 F on Monday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather.

That compares with an all-time high of 96 F on both May 19 in 1997 and May 20 in 1996. The normal high in the nation's capital around this time of year is 77 F.

To escape the heat, homes and businesses in the PJM power grid, which includes Washington, cranked up their air conditioners, boosting spot prices by 449% so far this week to $229 per megawatt-hour, the highest since January. PJM manages the grid in all or part of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold at 97.1 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 16.9 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall from 16.3 bcfd on Monday to 15.1 bcfd on Tuesday, the lowest since January 27.

Week ended May 15 Forecast
Week ended May 8 Actual
Year ago May 15
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+85
+85
+119
+92
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,375
2,290
2,358
2,242
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+5.9%
+6.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.04
3.02
3.46
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
17.28
17.11
11.68
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
18.96
17.11
11.83
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
31
30
41
44
47
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
126
131
91
102
94
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
157
161
132
146
141
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.1
109.4
110.1
106.2
100.1
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.8
6.4
6.7
N/A
7.3
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
115.9
115.7
116.8
N/A
107.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.7
2.8
2.7
N/A
2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.4
7.2
7.1
N/A
6.5
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.7
16.0
16.2
15.2
12.9
U.S. Commercial
5.7
5.1
4.8
5.7
5.9
U.S. Residential
6.1
4.9
4.3
5.9
6.3
U.S. Power Plant
30.7
31.9
33.0
32.5
30.6
U.S. Industrial
22.1
21.8
21.6
22.7
22.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
72.1
71.1
71.1
74.2
73.0
Total U.S. Demand
98.9
97.1
97.1
N/A
94.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
88
89
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
92
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
97
97
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended May 22
Week ended May 15
2025
2024
2023
Wind
17
15
11
11
10
Solar
10
11
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
33
35
40
42
41
Coal
13
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.07
2.89
3.12
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.38
2.12
2.35
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.52
1.46
2.89
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.17
2.00
2.25
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.53
2.35
2.86
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.99
2.14
2.82
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.20
2.15
2.98
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-3.21
-4.40
1.34
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.11
1.14
1.32
1.13
2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
89.99
52.50
40.31
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
228.78
145.48
43.04
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
7.31
13.91
39.90
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
10.00
10.00
29.10
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
3.81
5.29
17.36
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))