US natural gas futures hit four-month low on mild weather, near-record output (updated)

US Global Investors

18/02/2026 20:42

Mild weather reduces heating demand, impacting gas storage

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

US LNG exports on track for monthly record high in February

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday to a four-month low,  on near-record daily output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, which should allow utilities to leave more gas in storage.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.0 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $3.011 per million British thermal units. For the second straight day, they posted their lowest close since October 17.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a ninth straight day and the 18th time so far this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.35 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 5.

There is currently about 6% less gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Analysts, however, expect that deficit to be mostly wiped out by early March. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Forecasts still call for cooler weather and higher demand next week than this week, which also contained the low-demand U.S. Presidents Day holiday on Monday.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a five-week low of around $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a one-month low of around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Feb 13 Forecast
Week ended Feb 6 Actual
Year ago Feb 13
Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-146
-249
-182
-151
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,068
2,214
2,129
2,193
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-5.7%
-5.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.01
3.03
3.74
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.41
10.57
15.28
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.96
10.52
14.41
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
325
334
407
376
364
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
10
7
3
8
6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
335
341
410
384
370
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
108.2
110.4
110.6
101.8
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.0
9.2
9.2
N/A
9.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.3
119.6
119.8
N/A
106.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
4.0
4.0
N/A
3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
6.4
6.5
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.8
18.5
15.8
12.6
U.S. Commercial
17.4
13.1
15.4
21.0
14.6
U.S. Residential
28.6
21.1
25.3
37.9
24.0
U.S. Power Plant
33.0
29.7
30.1
24.6
31.8
U.S. Industrial
25.5
24.0
25.1
27.0
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
113.0
96.1
104.2
118.9
105.2
Total U.S. Demand
142.0
125.2
133.1
N/A
126.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
97
94
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
95
93
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
100
98
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Feb 20
Week ended Feb 13
2025
2024
2023
Wind
13
11
11
11
10
Solar
6
6
6
5
4
Hydro
6
6
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
1
0
0
0
Natural Gas
36
37
40
42
41
Coal
17
19
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.13
3.24
4.19
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.57
3.71
4.90
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.20
1.99
3.78
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.32
2.53
4.03
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.64
2.78
4.19
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
5.85
8.56
13.65
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.88
2.71
4.19
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-2.05
-1.05
2.76
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.36
1.15
1.53
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
72.50
80.00
134.58
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
40.09
45.02
53.89
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
25.21
32.08
67.87
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
22.00
29.30
29.05
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
20.70
33.80
25.19
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))