US natural gas futures rise 4% on strong LNG export flows (updated)

US Global Investors

17/12/2025 20:15

Near-record gas flows to LNG export plants boost futures

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand

Record gas output allows for ample storage

Global gas prices fall amid mild winter, Ukraine peace hopes

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Wednesday on near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 13.8 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $4.024 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 29.

That pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory for the first time in four days.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November, LSEG said.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual so far this year, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 1% above normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 1, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 145.1 bcfd this week to 131.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while the forecast for next week was higher.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

Elsewhere, Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Wednesday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains has returned to service after shutting down on Tuesday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading near $9 per mmBtu around the world, which was a 19-month low at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a 20-month low at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia. NG/EU

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with the slow start of the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow.

That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

Week ended Dec 12 Forecast
Week ended Dec 5 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 12
Five-year average Dec 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-169
-177
-134
-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,577
3,746
3,640
3,547
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+0.8%
+2.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.96
3.89
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.42
9.26
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.46
9.46
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
350
343
339
402
441
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
7
6
5
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
356
350
345
407
443
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
108.9
108.6
104.4
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.2
10.4
9.3
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.1
119.4
117.9
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.5
3.4
3.4
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
5.3
6.0
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.9
18.4
18.4
14.3
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.5
18.1
15.2
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.6
30.6
25.2
23.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
34.8
34.6
29.8
33.1
33.6
U.S. Industrial
25.9
26.1
24.8
24.8
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.1
2.7
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.5
117.9
103.3
105.2
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
145.2
145.1
131.1
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
102
102
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
101
101
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
104
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 19
Week ended Dec 12
2024
2023
2022
Wind
11
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
39
42
41
38
Coal
20
20
16
17
21
Nuclear
18
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
3.58
3.90
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York
3.79
7.55
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate
3.03
3.36
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
3.18
3.32
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate
3.19
3.36
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate
7.85
16.50
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate
3.19
3.57
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub
0.79
0.95
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO
1.94
1.88
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England
96.28
171.00
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West
62.47
99.81
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C
13.76
18.59
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde
25.38
24.70
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15
28.08
33.10
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Alexander Smith and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))